Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II

That is the ground truth.

1,721 posted on 09/08/2017 8:30:05 PM PDT by dirtboy

Why not? Wouldn't it be grand if just like the election, all the forecasters were wrong?

Wouldn't that be grand! But it looks like she is bouncing off Cuba and already turning back to the north. :(

1,722 posted on 09/08/2017 8:30:55 PM PDT by EarlyBird (There's a whole lot of winning going on around here!)

the point is, the trough can start breaking down the high currently steering the system well before it gets close to Irma.

1,723 posted on 09/08/2017 8:30:59 PM PDT by dirtboy

man...looks like it stopped going in....so so close. rats.

1,724 posted on 09/08/2017 8:31:07 PM PDT by basalt (.)

yea..they only changed it 15 times...

1,725 posted on 09/08/2017 8:32:57 PM PDT by basalt (.)

Size comparison of Andrew and Irma.

1,726 posted on 09/08/2017 8:33:12 PM PDT by dirtboy

1,727 posted on 09/08/2017 8:33:57 PM PDT by EarlyBird (There's a whole lot of winning going on around here!)

wanna impress me?...quit flying planes into it and go with one forecast...duh.

1,728 posted on 09/08/2017 8:34:03 PM PDT by basalt (.)

Slightly each time. The basic direction never changed.

1,729 posted on 09/08/2017 8:34:24 PM PDT by dirtboy

I have no desire to bother impressing you. You are making stupid comments.

1,730 posted on 09/08/2017 8:35:06 PM PDT by dirtboy

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has
re-intensified to category 5 strength. The plane measured a
maximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in
the northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140
kt. The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all
quadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be
35 n mi wide.

Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than
expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning
west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to
the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time,
Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate
after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and
then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from
its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted
slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to
the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the center might move onshore.

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so.many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36
hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.
After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may
increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is
anticipated at that time. Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.

1,731 posted on 09/08/2017 8:35:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Tear down the Mexican Carrier plant and use the materials to build the wall)

Dear Lord! Thanks for posting.

1,732 posted on 09/08/2017 8:35:28 PM PDT by madison10 (Pray for President Trump, Houston, Texas & Florida)

Yeah, I caught him and that lefty global warming babe early this am getting all giddy about warning people to evacuate. They actually characterized themselves as “parents” admonishing their kids (residents) to behave and comply with their instructions to evacuate. I wanted to bitch slap both of them. Leftist media pukes.

1,733 posted on 09/08/2017 8:36:00 PM PDT by TADSLOS (Reset Underway!)

Two things in play. Arrival time of trough influence. And position of irma when that occurs. At present, that will have to be at, least as south as Cuba. So the storm will have to transverse Cuban influence for awhile. She is already tracking at the southern outlier if not below that. So hardly anyone ran the influence numbers at this range. And she just hit Cat 5 before slamming into Cuba.

1,734 posted on 09/08/2017 8:36:22 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)

To: basalt; eastforker

Maybe Irma really is too big to fail!

1,735 posted on 09/08/2017 8:39:25 PM PDT by EarlyBird (There's a whole lot of winning going on around here!)

“But it looks like she is bouncing off Cuba and already turning back to the north. :( “

That is what it looks like to me. The eye seems to be turning back to a WNW track. It does not appear to be going any further into Cuba.

1,736 posted on 09/08/2017 8:41:46 PM PDT by Parley Baer

GFS is still taking it up the gut:

1,737 posted on 09/08/2017 8:42:28 PM PDT by dirtboy

GFS is still taking it up the gut:

1,738 posted on 09/08/2017 8:42:29 PM PDT by dirtboy

And the new 0Z GFS has the path moving east again. Maybe even 20 miles.

1,739 posted on 09/08/2017 8:43:50 PM PDT by Revel

This is all very confusing. The experts seem very invested in panic.

1,740 posted on 09/08/2017 8:45:51 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)

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