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To: AdmSmith
Kim's dad, Kim Jong-il, tried it, too. But there were some problems. First, Kim Jong-il really tried to open Macau style special district in Shinuiju, but China torpedoed it. The story at the time is that China feared that Shinuiju would suck in investment money which otherwise go to Manchurian economic development. Burned by Chinese, he made long trans-Siberian tour to meet Putin, and cultivating close relationship with Russia. In the end, China reached out to Jong-il. NK and China patched up their relationship. However, he was cool to later China-led investment drive in NK. NK picked Chinese businessmen clean and kicked them out of country. I suspect he was not about to cede his power to "market." Market generates wealth, and it is basically Chinese money. It could create another power center, which he may not control.

This time Xi is strong-arming Kim into doing things the Chinese way. I think Kim Jong-un still counts on S. Korean gov to revive economic investment in N. Korea. However, since U.S. leans hard on SK, it is not a sure thing. Even more so, if Kim is going to rebuff U.S. proposal and push for drastically scaled-down denuclearization.

I think Kim still hopes that SK can deliver enough goods to him so that he does not have to entirely rely on China.

I think Plan A was that N. Korea become an independent free agent neither tied to China nor to U.S., with his nuclear arsenal ready. Play off one against the other, and get money from everybody. In the meantime, steadily advancing his project of defacto takeover of S. Korea. A kind of grand dream but China stomped on it hard.

80 posted on 05/16/2018 6:43:12 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (dead parakeet + lost fishing gear = freep all day)
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To: TigerLikesRooster; gandalftb; AmericanInTokyo; SunkenCiv

Sooner or later it will be big changes in NK, and then the money and trade flows will be in charge, not the Juche priests. This https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade will be a big factor.

A rough calculation: To increase the standard of NK to a suitable level about $100 000 is needed per capita for the next decade = about 25 M x $100k = $2,500 billion. With > 15 % profit margin that is more than $250 bn in profit. This is a conservative figure.

If I were to give advice to the Norks I would say; “Make sure that you have good relations with Tokyo and Washington otherwise you will be swallowed by Seoul and Beijing. Perhaps you as well need US forces and bases for protection.”


82 posted on 05/16/2018 1:39:06 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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