Daines, I wouldn’t trust her. She could scuttle the vote and you are sunk. Be there and vote.
Or at least have the jet fueled up.
If Murky goes back on her word and votes “no,” Kavanaugh still would be confirmed 50-49 (with Daines at his daughter’s wedding, which is where he needs to be unless it is absolutely critical that he fly back to DC).
Only if Manchin also commits political suicide by switching to a “no” vote after having announced yesterday that he was a “yes” would Daines’s vote be required, and if such double treason were to occur McConnell would keep the vote open for a few hours while Daines flies back to DC (which would take about 4 hours) and Daines would cast the 50th vote in favor, with Pence then breaking the tie.
In other words, all that Murky and Manchin could do is cut short Daines’s celebration at his daughter’s wedding reception and make Republicans stay in the Capitol until late Saturday night, but they wouldn’t be able to stop the confirmation. There is no way that Manchin will throw away his only chance of being reelected next month for an act that merely would delay the final confirmation vote by a few hours.
So leave poor Senator Daines alone. He will do what’s right, but, given Susan Collins’s vote in favor, what’s right is for him to be at his daughter’s wedding.