Texas May Cost Trump 2020 (Texas turning purple?)

The Hill ^ | July 4, 2019 | Kristin Tate, opinion contributor

[nwrep]

Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.

Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.

With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump. His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot take it for granted.

Republicans are already walking a tightrope between the 2018 midterm results and changing demographic realities. In many ways, the resources used to keep Texas red next year are balanced by the fates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Several campaign stops or a late ad buy could mean the difference in the race. Trump could see his electoral chances go to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in Texas

[Vaden]

I know it’s a problem. My post made clear I am just as concerned as you are.

Democrats have WON the state in the not so distant past. Carter won in ‘76, and Humphrey won in ‘68.

Trump’s margin clearly slipped and it’s a problem.

[Richard Kimball]

Agree with what you wrote. Trump damaged Cruz. Note that Greg Abbott won by nearly ten points. Cruz damaged himself badly when he went to the convention and declined to endorse Trump.

He also tied himself to Glenn Beck for the last six months of his campaign.

[thinkthenpost]

I agree that Hillary would have won the General, sad comment on the country IMO it is what is is, but I was referring to the 2018 Senate race in my post.
Plenty of folks at this site still would not / will not let 2016 go to the point of a less than 3% margin!
The old lose on principle a long-standing GOP tradition it seems.
Don't forget the I'll stay home that will teach them or vote for the Libertarian to send a message!
Senator Simena and Gov. McCauliffe thank you! /sarc
(Not you)

[GAHeel]

also, there is very wealthy Billionaire that is going to spend big $$$ registering over one million new GOP folks in Texas.
So POTUS can concentrate in the Rust Belt.
Finally, I heard Kevin Brady say only about 50% of the Trump vote came out in his district(suburban Houston)in 2018.(and many districts in Texas)
That wont happen this time.

[enumerated]

“...but I was referring to the 2018 Senate race in my post.”

I know - my point wasn’t to pile onto Ted Cruz, or to defend him for that matter.

I was just pointing out that Cruz’s thin margin of victory over Beto wasn’t entirely indicative of demographics, nor is it predictive of how the President will do in Texas 2020.

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both run as Republicans, and do have significant overlapping constituencies, but there are some yuge differences between the two - - they will not share the same political fates.

President Trump was a political unknown in 2016, and ran largely without support from his own party, which then compounded the betrayal by tying his hands legislatively during his first two years.

Then, absurdly, though his name wasn’t even on the 2018 ballot, pundits try to hold out the GOP’s loss of the House as proof of President Trump’s weakness - preposterous!

Democrats (and even a lot of Republicans) are in for a big shock come 2020.

[Sam Gamgee]

It worries me as well. Hillary and Trump separated by 1.6 million votes. Net migration of 800,000 Mexicans each year to Texas, and 80% of those vote Democrat. Not looking good.

[Sam Gamgee]

Never been and so Texas to me may as well be Atlantis. Have no clue about the state except for the few things I learned reading about its history and TV. So I have to rely on actual residents like you to get the lo down. Why is Dallas Austin ect so liberal? Who are these Texan liberals? What makes them tick? Is Dallas basically no different than say Portland?

[Sam Gamgee]

Didn’t Cruz throw Moore under the bus? Wasn’t Cruz on the hate Trump bandwagon for some time?

[NELSON111]

>>>Why is Dallas Austin ect so liberal?

Well - pretty easy answer: Dallas has a demographics problem. Austin has become the "silicon valley/tech center" of the state. IOW - it's become Cali-East. A lot of tech companies fled California and moved to Texas - and brought their folks.

Plus - it doesn't help that one of the most liberal schools in the nation, U.T., is there. They have some of the most progressive professors to be found in any public university. They're no better than Berkeley. I've had a couple of friends who raised kids in a very conservative Christian home and sent kids there only to get back flaming libtards. My father-in-law graduated from there in '66. Makes him weep.

[enumerated]

I’m not a fan of Cruz at all - never was.

Just saying that just because Beto almost beat him doesn’t mean Texas is going purple any time soon. Cruz has his own problems - Trump will carry Texas easily in 2020.

Having said that...... Yes, Ted Cruz screwed up big time in 2016 and has made mistakes since then, but he is FAR from our worst problem - he has mostly been solid of late. We need all the friends we can get.

[publana]

And... those Cruzlims voted for “other than Trump” only because they could in TX because they knew TX would go red. When close, those same fools will be voting RED. Articles such as this one will motivate them to vote correctly this time. ;). Trump has Texas sewn up imo.

But... when the current crop of idiot kids grow up and start voting, I worry that TX will indeed go blue. I hope I’m long gone before then as I don’t wish to see it.

[Sam Gamgee]

Well just finished conversing with an American on a movie chatroom. I’m Canadian by the way. And that person was a flaming race baiting leftist. I seem to come across more and more Americans who are more liberal than most Canadians I know. I fear for America.

[Sam Gamgee]

Yes I notice that many, like Cruz and Graham, are now more solid, but I wonder if they are only so because the Mueller report vindicated Trump. Would they have their knives out if not?

[M Kehoe]

Hi.

Just another opinion piece from “The Hill,” that is more wet dream than opinion.

Imho.

5.56mm

[enumerated]

You could be right.

POTUS was vulnerable at first - or so they thought - but he has consolidated his political power to the point where they would have to be utter fools to cross him.

The Democrats have no choice but to face President Trump in 2020 and he will grind them into hamburger. The Republicans do have a choice - and I have no doubt they will choose wisely - and support him this time around.

[monkeyshine]

I think you are correct, and I overstated it trying to to make my point. He was tough, and decisive, and he was (like all of us are) a man of his time. In retrospect the comparison to Clinton was a poor choice - though I was referring to Bill, not his wife.

[itsahoot]

He was tough, and decisive, and he was (like all of us are) a man of his time.

He really got mad when they criticized Margaret's singing.

My dad took me to Vinita Oklahoma to see Harry on his famous Whistle Stop tour when I was ten years old. I don't remember seeing any security and we were close enough to spit on him. By the way, her singing was awful and his piano playing wasn't any better.

[NELSON111]

The tide is turning quickly. Just a short 4 years ago the big fight was gay marriage. Now that we’ve let that camel’s snout under the tent flap - you’re considered a bigot if you think it’s wrong to allow a 5-year-old to have a sex-change.

[rxsid]

"Many illegals moving into Texas are assimilating. That translates to voting Republican"

Are Texas illegal aliens different than California illegal aliens?

Latinos in Ca are overwhelming Democrat voters. [1]

The irony regarding historical political party strength is that Texas has elected more Democrats at both the state and national level, than California has.

Since Texas doesn't register by party, it's more difficult to find trends, but the way Texas is being swamped with illegal aliens and how migration into the state is generally occurring (more growth in liberal big cities), it is not unreasonable to think Texas could go back to being blue in the near term.

Texas Population Projections 2010 to 2050

https://demographics.texas.gov/Infographics/2017/UrbanTexasPt2

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

The irony regarding historical political party strength is that Texas has elected more Democrats at both the state and national level, than California has.

In the entire history since Texas joined the Union? Including the years when Texans would not vote for the GOP because of Reconstruction? The number of Dems elected fifty years ago is irrelevant. Your post is misleading, but I don't think you did that intentionally.