Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic
Facebook ^ | March 12, 2020 | Jason S. Warner

Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando

This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.

WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:

As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.

For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have

(Excerpt) Read more at facebook.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19; socialdistanciing
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 181-189 next last
If you don't want to read it on Facebook, it's posted on a site called Medium.com

It's a long, but very rational analysis arguing for serious "social distancing" to slow the spread of the corona virus to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with serious life threatening corona virus cases.

1 posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

Defective math. This is what happens when one takes great liberties in assuming variables that are not assumable while ignoring numbers that ARE available - then reading in assumptions.


2 posted on 03/17/2020 10:47:53 AM PDT by TheBattman (Democrats-Progressives-Marxists-Socialists - redundant labels.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

And this assumes everything is in bubble. No factors for new cures (which will slow the spread by healing quicker), social distancing, vaccines that will be in production soon (a lot sooner then 18 months), heat of summer, etc...


3 posted on 03/17/2020 10:49:07 AM PDT by BushCountry (thinks he needs a gal whose name doesn't end in ".jpg")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando
I am all for social distancing.

I do not care much for most people in the first place and would rather be around my dogs.

4 posted on 03/17/2020 10:49:26 AM PDT by eartick (Stupidity is expecting the government that broke itself to go out and fix itself. Texan for TEXIT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

I’m not good at math - did that person factor in the fact that they think that 86% of people don’t even know they have it? Haven’t been tested so haven’t been counted? if that is true- it’s likely i think to lower the death rate?


5 posted on 03/17/2020 10:49:46 AM PDT by Bob434
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

This is the same argument that Cuomo made on national t.v. this morning followed by POTUS and his whole team making the very same points. 15 days of.stay the F home. The but flu bros will be here shortly to poo poo any mathematical sense or logic because IT’S JUST FLU /S people will not social distance until forced to by local law enforcement or the national guard and if people keep it up martial law will be declared and the Army and Marines will enforce marital quarantine. Better to nip this now while we have hospital capacity than later when we have troops and.K rails in the highways like Italy.


6 posted on 03/17/2020 10:51:05 AM PDT by JD_UTDallas ("Veni Vidi Vici")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

You might want to apply the proverbial grain of salt.
The link to this article has been shared many times in the last few days on FR and I felt obliged to check into the bone fide of Medium.com.
Medium was started by the cofounder of Twitter, Ev Williams, who gave 800K to the left in the last election, mostly to Hillary. I wouldn’t discount some well sugared spin.


7 posted on 03/17/2020 10:51:27 AM PDT by JayGalt (You can't teach a donkey how to tap dance. Nemo me impune lacessit!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TheBattman

Thank you.

However the screaming pearl clutcher’s will never stop. They can’t help themselves they are all natural born hystrionic personalities.


8 posted on 03/17/2020 10:54:57 AM PDT by billyboy15
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

Scramble the order of the letters a little bit in “pandemic” and it becomes “Dem panic”.

A good deal of the business of running about with hair on fire is the result of poor reasoning skills and an overload of emotional freight. Cooler heads prevail, and the doomsday scenario becomes a little less so. We CAN take steps to protect ourselves, meanwhile, the entire medical profession and the pharmaceutical firms have just a little more time to come up with a long-tern fix.


9 posted on 03/17/2020 10:55:11 AM PDT by alloysteel (Freedom is not a matter of life and death. It is much more serious than that..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

Assumptions: if a kitten can breathe at sea level and at a thousand feet and pretty good at ten thousand feet then it should do okay at 100,000 feet. Scientific extrapolation.


10 posted on 03/17/2020 10:55:30 AM PDT by SkyDancer ( ~ Just Consider Me A Random Fact Generator ~ Eat Sleep Fly Repeat ~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JayGalt

A Hillary supporter now there some truth


11 posted on 03/17/2020 10:58:08 AM PDT by ronnie raygun (nicdip.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: billyboy15
They can’t help themselves they are all natural born hystrionic personalities.

And the trouble is they work overtime trying to infect others with their disease, which is worse than the Wuhan Flu.

12 posted on 03/17/2020 10:58:10 AM PDT by abb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

It’s all bull sh!t. Move along.


13 posted on 03/17/2020 10:59:14 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Bob434

“I’m not good at math - did that person factor in the fact that they think that 86% of people don’t even know they have it? Haven’t been tested so haven’t been counted? if that is true- it’s likely i think to lower the death rate?”

That 86% (used to be 85%, before that a mere 80%) is someone’s OCD ritual. If there were 86% of cases, undetected and wandering in the wilderness, they’d be causing hotspots like crazy. Just being asymptomatic does not mean you are not contagious (we’ve seen this, over and over).

The 86%, or 85% or 80% or 99% (yes, that has been claimed) of cases that are asymptomatic are among the already confirmed. That 99% number is absurd and clearly made up.

We won’t know the exact number of cases until everybody is tested. But if 86% of cases are unknown and still at large, expect the *worst* case scenario.


14 posted on 03/17/2020 10:59:31 AM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando
The latest is that common areas (counters, tables, etc) can support the virus for 5 days. Touching these items spread the virus. This is why they are closing areas a lot of people visit. Schools, restaurants, bars, etc.

Practice social distancing and do not touch anything!

15 posted on 03/17/2020 11:01:25 AM PDT by Lockbox
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

Charlatan alert.

Click bait charlatan art bell stuff.

They always start by talking about themselves.


16 posted on 03/17/2020 11:01:53 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

This report was released to the British Gov’t yesterday and so believe to our CDC as well.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


17 posted on 03/17/2020 11:02:30 AM PDT by HollyB
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

Doubling every 4 days is the worst I have seen. Doubling every three days is off.


18 posted on 03/17/2020 11:02:41 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Bob434
did that person factor in the fact that they think that 86% of people don’t even know they have it? Haven’t been tested so haven’t been counted?

That's been nagging at me too. When they talk about mortality rate, is the only denominator they are using based on CONFIRMED cases and not adding undetected ones? If 10 people die and they compare to 1000 confirmed cases, you report 1% death rate. However, if there are 9000 additional asymptomatic cases that they don't know about, that would move the decimal point one position to the left and make a very big difference.

Not that any death is insignificant, but do they really have any idea of what the true mortality rate is? I'd honestly and respectfully like to know.
19 posted on 03/17/2020 11:02:45 AM PDT by mmichaels1970
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Perseverando

I posted a link to medium yesterday and someone promptly said this information was “debunked”. That terminology raised my hackles


20 posted on 03/17/2020 11:04:10 AM PDT by griswold3 (Democratic Socialism is Slavery by Mob Rule)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 181-189 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson