If half of Brits have/had it, then there would be antibodies still in everyone’s system. Isolate what that antibody is, test people for its presence in a detailed controlled study. Prove this right or wrong.
That whining Cuomo may be stuck with thousands of ventilators and warehouses full of swabs and face shields.
As I have said a number of times - a total testing of the general population in say a zip code near one of the hot spots is needed to get an idea of how many in the “Herd” are walking around with it.
Once upon a time, I used to model real-time systems to engineer software. I know a thing or two about modeling and I can tell you without a doubt some very intuitive things. 1.) All models lack detail from what they are modeling. They are an abstraction. If they had the detail of the thing they are modeling, it would be the real thing. 2.) You need more than one model to come close to modeling with any accuracy. The more than one model has to be a different type of model. Not the same basic model with different variables or a tweek here or there. 3.) Complex systems always have unknowns, and only multiple iterations of prototyping/developing of the solution do you discover the unknowns that could be used to correct the model. 4.) As for modeling the ChiCom Flu, weather, the Climate and other highly complex things, the complexity is so great that models never come close in long range predicting, e.g., weather more than a week. See, number 3, as you are closer to the real thing in time, you can adjust the model to be correct, but you won't be close to the real thing six months from now, until six months from now. By that time, you no longer need the model, because you have the real thing.
Is modeling useful? Yes, it is a tool and as a tool it needs to be used properly and its results need to be interrupted correctly.
p
... modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected,...
When did it start? Facebook is "fact checking" posts that suggest it was in the U.S. in late fall 2019. I think it may very well have been here. Just my gut, no data...
This attitude reminds me of the forest fires in this country and Australia,
It starts with the we only have it 20% contained.
After the fires burn for weeks or months and destroy the forests , homes and towns and there is not much left to burn we say it is 100% contained. Another victory for man over nature
.(I am in no way being critical of the heroic firefighers who fight these fires)
After this covid-19 runs its course as flus do. I guess we will say we have it under control. Another victory.
WE know enough about this virus so Let's get back to work, and figure out how many beds and ventilators and medical staff and supplies we will need for the next epidemic.
And if we feel like it; do something about anticipating another type of epidemic, or get back to business as usual. (Like wondering how Tom Brady will fare as the new quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.) -Tom