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Looks Like Trump Was Right About The Coronavirus Fatality Rate: In early March he guessed the fatality rate would be under 1 percent.
The Federalist ^ | 04/24/2020 | David Marcus

Posted on 04/24/2020 8:53:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

In early March, President Donald Trump was lambasted for saying on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show that he had a hunch the coronavirus fatality rate, which the World Health Organization pegged then at 3 to 4 percent, was in fact much lower, under 1 percent. Many commentators, myself included pointed out that the beginning of a pandemic medical crisis was not the time to be floating hunches. But, as we always knew was possible, it looks now like the president might well have been right.

New data from random antibody tests conducted in New York State suggest that as many as 2.7 million people statewide have had the coronavirus. That along with the just over 15,000 deaths that have occurred leads to a fatality rate for the virus of .5 percent according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Here is what Trump said on March 4:

“Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number. Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

He went on to say:

“I think that that number (the WHO number) is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent.”

Democrats and media pundits blasted Trump for spreading “misinformation.”

Trump’s trusting his “hunch” on coronavirus’ fatality rate over the World Health Organization’s numbers.

There’s really no excuse for the president to be spreading this kind of misinformation to downplay a deadly disease.

WATCH: pic.twitter.com/hoVq8q6rRV

— DNC War Room (@DNCWarRoom) March 5, 2020

Trump has a “hunch” that coronavirus isn’t as bad as every expert says it is. pic.twitter.com/KID3XLYerf

— The Daily Show (@TheDailyShow) March 6, 2020

Trump blames Obama for coronavirus response, then says he has a “hunch” death rate is “false number” https://t.co/FukAOCkwIe via @slate

— AM Joy w/Joy Reid (@amjoyshow) March 6, 2020

While this data is preliminary, it is backed up by another study in Los Angeles that found 40 times more people had carried the virus then were previously known. This dropped the fatality rate in LA from 4.5 percent to .1-.3 percent.

It is difficult to stress how important these findings are. The 5-week lockdown that has destroyed the American economy was put in place by contemplating what looks to be rather absurd numbers by the WHO.

While the United States has nearly lost a terrible 50,000 lives to the virus, this radical shift in our understanding of just how deadly it really is should make us question not only the logic of the lockdown in the first place, but more importantly how much longer we are going to stay on this destructive course.

The fact of the matter is that back in early March, what Trump was saying made sense. We had conducted very few tests of asymptomatic people and consequently we were flying blind as to just what percentage of covid-19 cases were becoming critical or leading to death. If Trump’s informed “hunch” continues to be confirmed, it will require vast changes in how we are battling the virus.

For one thing, the idea of contact tracing, which Cuomo said yesterday would be led up by Mike Bloomberg in New York, comes under serious doubt with these new findings. For example, in New York City the sample suggests that about 20 percent or some 1.6 million people have already had the virus. At that rate of spread, tracing becomes a very dubious proposition.

It would be nice if Trump’s perspicacity on this issue led to the media giving him a little more respect on the Chinese Virus response, but that’s unlikely. Either way, the results are fantastic news. At a .5 percent fatality rate or lower, the coronavirus is not the killer we feared it was, and that should make everyone happy.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; fatalityrate; mortality
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To: SeekAndFind

But, but, EXPONENTIAL!!


21 posted on 04/24/2020 9:41:02 AM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: brownsfan

He does so much right, then he suggests taking a disinfectant internally.

I love the man, but sometimes I wish he’d stem the stream of consciousness.

Do you get paid for your BS posts about our president like this bs lie?


22 posted on 04/24/2020 9:44:58 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (Are the ChiComs, their ownership of America's, fake news media/CNN, the real Deep Staters?)
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To: brownsfan

C-SPAN (Lying NANZI) PELOSI: “The president is asking people to inject Lysol into their lungs

CSPAN youtube ^ | Apr 24, 2020 | Nancy Pelosi
Posted on 4/24/2020, 9:43:54 AM by a fool in paradise

video at link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0nfRlkEW3w


23 posted on 04/24/2020 9:46:50 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (Are the ChiComs, their ownership of America's, fake news media/CNN, the real Deep Staters?)
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To: cp124

Fauci knew in late February that the mortality rate “would be considerably less than 1%.”

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?articleTools=true&fbclid=IwAR3Hq1mNv0Cn0EcvEpTij1vCmQJMmXVIo-H1twzUZQNPtpOpAgQyc1ZKIXg


24 posted on 04/24/2020 9:54:50 AM PDT by JGT
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To: brownsfan

Nope. The media sliced and diced what he said to make him look bad. Trump does do himself damage with personal attacks and teenage-like ranting on Twitter sometimes. This time though, nothing wrong with what he said.


25 posted on 04/24/2020 9:57:52 AM PDT by vpintheak (Live free, or die!)
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To: Vaduz

I always like to peek at the hair on fire headlines on Drudge. Over 50,000! OMG. Well, we would most likely be still around 45,000 except they changed how they calculate the numbers. Liberals love to have fun with numbers. Wish that fairy land they live in was real. Would be a great place to hang out if you didn’t have to actually work for a living and put food on the table.


26 posted on 04/24/2020 10:03:39 AM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: SeekAndFind
New York is already at 1053 deaths per 1 million people.
That's 0.1% dead with a lock down.

New York might have up to 14% infected. But until we know the specificity of the antibody test used, that could be overstated due to statistical error.

Stanford had to retract their antibody test study because of statistical error.

27 posted on 04/24/2020 10:25:06 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: brownsfan
He does so much right, then he suggests taking a disinfectant internally.

I love the man, but sometimes I wish he’d stem the stream of consciousness.

Quit drinking the kool aid

28 posted on 04/24/2020 11:05:47 AM PDT by tx_eggman (Liberalism is only possible in that moment when a man chooses Barabas over Christ.)
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To: Grampa Dave

“Do you get paid for your BS posts about our president like this bs lie?”

Does it ever get old accusing people of being liberals because they don’t fall in line? You behave just like a liberal.


29 posted on 04/24/2020 11:54:42 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: tx_eggman

“Quit drinking the kool aid”

Yeah, well now he says he was being “sarcastic”.

Pull your head from out of … the sand.


30 posted on 04/24/2020 11:56:14 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: brownsfan

THe President did not suggest any such thing. He merely pointed out that bleach-based (i.e., salt-originating) substances may ameliorate the illness, espeially when comobined with UV heat. It could well turn out he is right about that analysis, too.

Mich as the media like to portray Trump as a know-nothing boob, quite the opposite is the case. He is shrewd, instinctive and follows his convictions.


31 posted on 04/24/2020 12:30:30 PM PDT by confederatecarpetbag
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To: confederatecarpetbag

“Mich as the media like to portray Trump as a know-nothing boob, quite the opposite is the case. He is shrewd, instinctive and follows his convictions.”

I’m a citizen, not a fan boy. Donald Trump is the president, not some infallible demigod. President Trump is saying he was being sarcastic, which would indicate that he said it.

There’s no one on the national scene I’d rather have as president. But that doesn’t mean I don’t believe he ever makes mistakes. You know, that’s how the left is with Obama, the chosen one. I’d rather not be like them.


32 posted on 04/24/2020 12:34:34 PM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: SeekAndFind

It was obvious early on that the mortality rate was nowhere near what they doomsayers were hyping... At least to the general population. To certain subsegments it is very high... but overall it is very very low.


33 posted on 04/24/2020 12:40:38 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Unassuaged

Trump talked about disinfectants and UV rays being potential salves for the virus. There is proof emerging that is the case. Specify why you think it was a blunder for him to say so.


34 posted on 04/24/2020 12:42:07 PM PDT by confederatecarpetbag
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To: brownsfan

of course POTUS makes mistakes. But you’re implying what the President said is a mistake. The emerging clinical evidence suggests quite the opposite.

As for being a fanboy, I don’t know that is. All I did was challenge your assertion. Rather than address it, you resort to backhanded jabs. Why is that?


35 posted on 04/24/2020 12:46:05 PM PDT by confederatecarpetbag
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To: brownsfan

Trump talked about disinfectants and UV rays being potential salves for the virus. There is proof emerging that is the case. Specify why you think it was a blunder for him to say so.


36 posted on 04/24/2020 12:48:24 PM PDT by confederatecarpetbag
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To: confederatecarpetbag

Did he or did he not mention disinfectants and then the possibility of using them ‘inside the body’? That was a poor choice, rhetorically - especially considering how dumb the average viewer is. So, a rhetorical blunder, should have stopped after the UV light comments. Was he responding to a question? either way, should have said, “we are investigating all avenues” —much harder to spin.


37 posted on 04/24/2020 12:59:41 PM PDT by Unassuaged (I have shocking data relevant to the conversation!)
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To: confederatecarpetbag

“Why is that?”

I’ll let you look up fanboy. Look, what he said was a mistake. If it wasn’t a mistake, why would he say he was just being sarcastic?

Thanks, I’ll wait.


38 posted on 04/24/2020 1:04:20 PM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: confederatecarpetbag

“Specify why you think it was a blunder for him to say so.”

There are a couple of possibilities that come to mind. It wasn’t a blunder, and he said he was being sarcastic. But, why be sarcastic when you’re right?

Or, it was a blunder, and he said he was being sarcastic to cover his blunder.


39 posted on 04/24/2020 1:07:57 PM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: Sam Gamgee

Indeed they are clueless about the real world they make tings up because the can’t understand reality and love to play with their ego.


40 posted on 04/25/2020 8:02:09 AM PDT by Vaduz (women and children to be impacIQ of chimpsted the most.)
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