Posted on 05/11/2020 10:42:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Washington — One of the leading models for measuring the impact of the coronavirus is now projecting a total of 137,184 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. through the beginning of August, an increase of roughly 2,700 deaths from its previous forecast May 4.
Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, predicted the number of cases to particularly increase in areas where people become more mobile.
"What's driving the change is, simply put, the rise in mobility, and that's the key driver," Murray said on "Face the Nation" on Sunday. "We're seeing in some states, you know, a 20-percentage-point increase in just 10 days in mobility. And that will translate into more human contact, more transmission."
Murray said states which have "big increases in mobility" may see a significant uptick in cases in the coming weeks. The top five states with increased mobility are Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Georgia, Murray said.
"We're seeing just explosive increases in mobility in a number of states that we expect will translate into more cases and deaths in 10 days from now," Murray said.
Murray said there was a decrease in projected cases coming from New York, New Jersey and Michigan, which have been epicenters of the pandemic, but that there was an increase in states like Illinois, Arizona, Florida and California.
"We really are going to have to wait and see," Murray said.
Several states are preparing to partially or fully reopen their economies, which could lead to greater travel between states. Murray advised against significant travel, and urged Americans to try to "minimize exposure" to other people.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Here we go.
“We have to keep locked down till Sept”
We’re all gonna die. /s
To die that is.
The same IHME model that has been wrong every single time on every single thing?
Why on earth would any sane human being listen to anything they have to say?
Butt Wipes...all of them!!! They all have a lousy track record for speaking fact & truth!!!
Trumpie...get this great USA nation republic, cooking once again and destroy the entire Democrat Party of Traitors & Turncoats!!!
“...”What’s driving the change is, simply put, the rise in mobility, and that’s the key driver,”...”
Mobility must be stamped out, Comrade.
RE: The same IHME model that has been wrong every single time on every single thing?
They say that their computer models have “learning” algorithms that continue to get updated, which means, EVENTUALLY, they’ll get it right...
Yeah that’s why yesterday we had the LOWEST death total since the shutdown first started..they are not even counting corona deaths, they are counting ANYONE who dies from ANYTHING yet test positive for the virus..so get into a car accident, die on impact, during autopsy test positive for corona, cause of death, corona
In other words, they’re making BS assumptions based on news stories.
We will not have too. It is a given the Virus will be here for a while.
I am not sure about the 137000, we do have Free Republic Member here who has done an excellent projection model that has been spot on since day one with the Worldometer Data.
That projection is showing 94046 for June 1st.
RE: “...”What’s driving the change is, simply put, the rise in mobility, and that’s the key driver,”...”
OK, places like New Zealand and some Australian Cities have reported ZERO cases for the past week... does that mean that they have to totally CUT OFF tourism and travel from other states and other countries? Might as well just shut down all airports.
And only minimum wage work will remain “essential?
I'm sure it will, the same way the computer models went from a 95% chance for Hillary to win to a 100% chance for Trump to win by the end of election night.
Montana South Dakota North Dakota also happen to have some of the lowest infection and deaths by far in the country.
And Georgia opened up and experienced the lowest hospitalizations they've ever had since all this begun.
Man, Swartzenegger has really let himself go lately.
The one number they can’t BS are hospitalizations. They have dropped like a rock here in Georgia. Infections are rising because the State is pleading for everyone, with or without symptoms, to get tested. Apparently, State now has more tests than it knows what to do with.
I know California is increasing from looking at Worldocounter. Did not know Florida was increasing.
I just check WorldOCounter it shows Florida decreasing. Is there another place to check?
Will save article and see if he is right, we will know shortly. I think he is wrong on Florida.
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