Two factors and a caveat that lead me to believe that Trump will be unbeatable in November.
First, the “Bradley effect” on polling.
“The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.”
Second, “security moms”.
There can’t be a suburban mother.. and not a lot of urban mothers...not concerned with the violence they’ve been witnessing, the destruction of property, attacks on motorists, violent attacks on white people including children and the calls by the left to defund the police. The Democrats’ silence in the face of all the destruction and anarchy is deafening to a security mom. Nobody is more vulnerable than a single black mother in the hood, and there are a lot of them. Not only do they worry about the violence in the black community everyday, but now their sons and daughters are being enticed by the far left to be out protesting, rioting and putting themselves in harm’s way as we have witnessed. There are not too many mothers, suburban or Urban, that are going to support removing the police from their communities, especially now.
Thirdly, the caveat, “John Durham”.
This is really the X factor in the election and could make a huge difference for a lot of reasons. Not only would it validate everything that the Republicans have been telling the public for almost four years, and reveal the things that the Democrats have been lying to them about, but a true takedown of Obama officials and other Deep State actors would make voters question what else has the media been lying to them about. You have to imagine who the media are going to blame when the facts actually come out... it’s going to be their buddies the Democrats, who “lied to us”. What else are they going to say? “Yeah, we knew it all along but we were trying to help Democrats get elected because orange man bad”. I don’t think so! How do they do that when they public finds out everything that Trump and the Republicans have told them about Obamagate it’s true? If Barr and Durham do their jobs, the Democratic party may be in the tall weeds for quite some time. At least they should be.
Anyway, I may be a little bit of a dreamer, but I think there is a real chance that Donald Trump rides on a tidal wave of disgust for the Democratic Party. There is already a huge enthusiasm gap in favor of President Trump and one has to consider that the true President, if Biden were to win, hasn’t even been named yet. Who the hell are they going to pick for their Vice President on the ticket? Name a good candidate and consider whether you think Americans will vote for another black (de facto) President considering the division and corruptionwe we went through with Obama. If the Democrats had a good choice for their Vice Presidential candidate, they would have already been named. We are less than gour months out and they don’t have one yet.. because they’ve got no one.
All that may be true, but the Bradley effect thing isn’t. I’ve seen it bite cons in the ass a lot on smaller elections that ‘we can’t lose’.
YOU do NOT understand press motivation. Or chain of command... IF you want to compete you have to have top spot in some editor's 'little black book' of sources... YOU have to supply news stories - names, facts, who can be interviewed, and some heavy insider stuff. You identify one or two editors at the top three newspapers in the country. feed them 'the good stuff' other 'down stream' papers and press outlets will decides 'must be news' and write up their own versions.
How do you do that?
Hire some National Enquirer types - men who can write well but 'made a few mistakes' and can't get good jobs in newspapers. Then set them up in a War Room - a no holds barred - gotta get the story no matter what' then put the stuff in news packets so editors, bimbos and pretentious men can look good and keep their jobs... THEN and ONLY then will they 'be fair'.
And how do we 'get' the good stuff? Trade favors with 'intelligence'... people who want to manipulate the press for their own power... and milk them. Hire private detectives - news people can't because it's unethical - but if they don't know it's been done... they can pretend you got the stuff magically... pay sources. Identify the personality of your press target. YOU don't have to understand the voter's motives YOU only have to figure out your 'target editor'... Saves a lot of effort.
People like Chris Wallace love to 'struggle' with the choices before them - "is this story too self-serving - even though it's great?"... Throw in some self serving stuff so they can reject some - it'll make 'em accept more. AND they'll 'feel' they haven't been used. Very important to keep their delusions in place.