Predictions based on past elections are based on what happened in a different country. Until the mid 70’s the USA was almost 90 percent white. Now non-Hispanic whites are under 65 percent of the country.
Ronald Reagan won statewide in California. Today he would lose there in a landslide.
Demographics are destiny.
Yes, true that. But this model had Trump with an 87% chance of winning in March 2016 so hopefully it holds this time.