National Polls: Biden’s Lead over Trump Shrinks to 3 Points

Breitbart ^ | August 9 2020 | Michael Patrick Leahy

[SmokingJoe]

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in the national popular vote has shrunk to just three points, according to the two most recent polls released by major polling firms.

The Hill-HarrisX poll released on Wednesday gave Biden a 43 percent to 40 percent lead in the national popular vote, while the Rasmussen Reports poll released on the same day gave Biden a 48 percent to 45 percent lead.

Biden’s lead is slightly beyond the margin of error in both polls.

The Hill HarrisX poll, “was conducted online within the United States from August 2-5, 2020 among 2,850 registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 1.84 percentage points.”

The Rasmussen Reports poll “of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted July 29-30 and August 2-4, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but lost the presidency since the Constitution specifies the president is elected by a majority of electoral college votes.

As Breitbart News reported last week, Joe Biden may have an even more difficult time winning the electoral college vote, despite a potentially greater popular vote margin over Trump in 2020 than Hillary Clinton had in 2016 due to his anticipated huge popular vote margin over Trump in California:

-SNIP- Had Hillary won California by 39 points in 2016, her raw vote margin over Trump would have been 1.2 million more, or 5.5 million, and she would have won the popular votes by four percentage points, 49 percent to 45 percent, but still lost the electoral college vote by the same election day margin of 306 to 232.

[Dr. Ursus]

This woman said he stole the song from her https://youtu.be/BEK2EDqxpcY

[FLT-bird]

Let’s say just for sake of argument that these two polls are accurate and it is 3%.

How much is the massive enthusiasm gap worth? ie Trump voters are eager to vote, Biden voters not nearly so much.

How much are “silent” Trump voters going to account for?

How much of that 3% is excess in deep blue states? ie California, New York, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Jersey etc etc and is therefore worthless?

Even if those polls are conducted and reported accurately, I feel pretty good about Trump’s chances.

[dvwjr]

Going back to the Presidential elections of say 1920 here are the greatest single Popular vote victories of the various Presidents:

“%” “Year” “President”

26.23 1920 Harding
25.21 1924 Coolidge
24.26 1936 FDR
23.15 1972 Nixon
22.58 1964 LBJ
18.21 1984 Reagan
17.43 1928 Hoover
15.40 1956 Ike

dvwjr

[SmokingJoe]

Nobody’s come anywhere close to any of that kind of winning margin since Reagan in 1984. The closest being Bush Snr beating Dukakis by 10%, which was in part from the Reagan magic.

Even as an incumbent, Obama only managed to beat Romney by 2.98% in 2012. Despite Obama using the IRS to terrorize Romney supporters or anyone who made political contributions to Romney or the TEA parties.
With his abysmal enthusiasm gap deficit to Trump it's hard to even conceive of Biden winning at all, let alone winning by a fantasy land 15% as CNN is insisting he will.