Posted on 09/16/2020 7:35:07 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 182
As of 09/15/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information4
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities rose by 717 cases from the previous day, to come in at 1,197
yesterday. That was a 137.97% increase from the same day the week before.
New Cases decreased by 1,973 from the day before, to come in at 38,858
yesterday. That was a 34.92% increase from the same day the week before.
There doesn't seem to be a good explanation for this other than these two areas heating up.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities rose by 1,982 cases from the previous day, to come in at 6,468
yesterday. That was a 29.15% increase from the same day last week.
One nation had a clearical addition to it's Fatality count, so that blew up the numbers a week ago.
New Cases rose by 22,366 from the day before, to come in at 284,293 yesterday.
This was a record for a Tuesday, and a 13.30% increase from the same day
the week before.
Fatalities in the United States
Fatalities in the United States grew beyond the 200,000 mark yesterday. There
are a lot of issues relating to the numbers, but that is the level of reporting
that is out there.
Things Seem to be Heating Up
Numbers are strong right now, especially in the Global Scene. This could
be a record week the way things are shaping up. We have now had records six
days in a row, and we're heading into the highest portion of the week with
numbers that are already record breaking.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations dropped off a bit yesterday.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It's also informitive to look up the data columns to see how the
situation has changed recently.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
As for deaths on the left there, we did pass the 200,000 Fatality level
yesterday. There's a lot to be addressed concerning those numbers. I think
most of the adults in the room realizes the dynamics behind them already.
Active Cases are tracked in that next to the last column on the right.
They went back down yesterday. This helps.
Take note of the Serious/Critical situation on the right there.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
Our slices became smaller again yesterday. Liking this...
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Active Cases dropped again yesterday. We are lower than we were a few days
ago and this charte depicts that.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
* * * I G N O R E - T H I S - S E C T I O N - T O D A Y * * *
Very low levels of testing were reported out yeterday. I'm not sure what was
going on, incredibly low testing, or terribly poor reporting. You can see
the 389,038 number of tests reported out. That threw the percentageS into
wildness on the right. I plugged in a (fabricated) number to keep the charts from
going crazy.
The intent is to review this tomorrow and either enter the count provied as
it is, or come up with an average for the two days if the number is as bogus
as I suspect it to be. Please ignore the testing section today.
Notice the change in the level of Testing in the third column there
yesterday. Just to the right of that column, you'll see the postive
testing results for the day.
Take note of the fourteen day Positive Percentage change two columns from
the right. It's the lowest since 06/22, but it did go up for the day.
Well sort of... 0.001% up.
The 3 day average and single day figures dropped nicely.
The Good news is that we have the lower days of the week just ahead.
* * * I G N O R E - T H I S - S E C T I O N - T O D A Y * * *
* * * I G N O R E - T H I S - S E C T I O N - T O D A Y * * *
Numbers were not reliable yesterday, so I am abandoning trying to make
sense of Testing data for this rport.
The dark blue Fourteen Day average line is the one that interests me.
It's almost flat now, but yesterday we did see a 0.001% increase.
I had noticed it's rate of drop slowing over recent days. Hope it
picks up going back down soon.
* * * I G N O R E - T H I S - S E C T I O N - T O D A Y * * *
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like the New Case Declarations line right now. They are ever so slightly
moving in the direction of flattening.
The active case line is going down. We have gone over the top and are on
the back side of the curve.
I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.
Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.
You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Texas and California are leading out here agin.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case Declartations were the highest yet for a Tuesday.
The Resolved Percent on the right is still showing strength to grow.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases rose here, although the numbers were smaller than normal.
The Serious/Critical cases rose by a fairly large amount.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
This metric rose yesterday. I don't like seeing that on a Tuesday. It's
a bad omen for the week, if a day shows record strength. Yesterday did.
The last columns there showed some strength for a Tuesday. Now what when
Wednesday, Thurday, and Friday are following along?
We are better than weeks back, but it's critical we see a continued tapering off.
The blue line here still shows some progress, but there is a move up going
on. Not liking the prospect of that one bit.
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)
France - Ooo
To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.
Span had been looking very bad, and despite some moving arund, it is just
headed up about as fast as it can get there. Up, up, up, up...
Frace is suffering the same fate.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
In recent days Sweden has edged up a little. It's not terrible, but it
isn't optimal either. Note that Sweden took around a 3,100 clearical
correction on it's case numbers on 08/27th. Just after Spain did that
recently, it made a dramatic move upward. I'm curious to see what happens
here.
The Nethherlands seems destined to intersect with Sweden within 24 hours.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
India basically owns this data presentation now. Looking at India's numbers
right now, it is gaining on our total off declared cases, and may be
challenging us for the most declared cases in five to six weeks. That's a
very rough estimate right now. This is a situation to watch.
India is a good example of a nation lying dormant for a while and then just
catching fire. This is the reason why I worked up the section that addresses
how many nations have achieved large numbers. I submet that there will be
nations on the global stage that will continue to be mostly dormant, but will
at some point catch fire, defeating the ability of this disease to cool off
globally. I don't like the idea of us heading into next year with hundreds
of thousands of new cases being declared each day.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
This chart reveals a flattening of Active Case growth. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases, and then the size of their increased
numbers as they grow recently. Both are good signs of a more healthy situation.
In the the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
We rose to 75.506% Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. The rise in this
column has been very reliable over recent days, weeks, and months.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases rose by a small amount, and Serious/Critical cases rose more than
usual.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Each specific region rose considerably yesterday.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Fatalities rose back up yesterday. It was a Tuesday, and typical for a Tuesday.
Looks like about the same initial rise as the week before, after starting from
a more eleveated position.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
This area is drifting from day to day, some better than others. This wasn't
one of the recent better days.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Yesterday was the sixth day in a row with a new record for the day of the
week. Yes, we're back to that again, a very strong indicator that rough
days are likely just ahead. That last Friday was a massive new case fest
for the day.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.
We remained at 19th place here yesterday.
Over the last month we've been in this rut from 19th to 16th place..
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
16 Sep:
The US has passed the 200k milestone according to WorldofMeters.Info, and on the day, we predicted. Our daily fatality index is creeping up slowly but still under the latest projection, as shown in the updated projection chart below.
I've been watching the numbers coming out of Brazil and India and decided to plot when their projected COVID fatalities might catch up to the US or even pass us up.
This projection (next graph) is calculated based on each countries DFI, which can and will likely change. It at least gives some idea of when Brazil and India could or will pass the US (maybe around the middle of December) in the total number of COVID deaths based on each country's current DFI numbers.
•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual daily cases offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.
Thank you, appreciate all your work.
Have a friend who’s hubby is a doctor.
He was really mad when Sisolak mandated no HCQ unless admitted to the hospital.
I had sent out this in an email awhile back and she sent it to her hubby.
He now prescribes this for patients that have the virus.
She says it works for them.
https://www.cbs7.com/2020/06/19/west-texas-doctor-claims-to-have-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for September 16.
Data from PA Department of Health, numbers as of midnight September 15/16
LTC deaths = 5308
Total deaths = 7903
LTC deaths as percentage of total = 67.2%
8 new LTC deaths, 28 new total deaths.
Percentage is slipping slightly (decrease of 0.1) but still the worst in the NE US.
Your format will stay as you wrote it. Don’t leave trailing spaces on sentences.
Do not use other html inside the pre area.
See
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