[bort]

FYI--

1) Zero votes have been counted. TargetSmart "models" voters based on past voting history/data banks.

2) I am not including 2016 numbers because they are meaningless in 2020. With the Dems push for mail voting, Trump's comments critical of mail voting, the China Virus potentially scaring voters from the polls, etc., past numbers mean very little.

3) Trump has the potential of picking up large numbers of votes out of the WOW counties. Discuss...

[bort]

Ping

[Ravi]

Spot-on. Will post Milwaukee/Dane relative to rest of state.

[Thunder90]

A lot of republicans in the WOW counties sat out the 2016 and 2018 election due to Charlie Sykes blasting Trump. Now many of those Republicans have swung back to Trump, partially due to the abysmal response to the BLM/Antifa violence in Milwaukee, Kenosha, and Wauwatosa.

[Dan in Wichita]

The Trump campaign has been collecting voting patterns of attendees at the rallies. We have seen huge numbers of (a) people who have never voted, and (b) people who have not voted in a long time.

If what we are hearing out of WI is true, those people are turning out to vote (and strongly doubt they are voting Dem)

[Meatspace]

“In the heavily red “WOW” counties in Wisconsin, roughly 30% of the early voters are either “new” voters or “infrequent” voters...”

The one thing we do know is that new or infrequent voters are going strong Trump.

[ConservativeDude]

I’m sure the media polls like NBC and ABC/Wash Post are picking up on infrequent and new voters, cause those polls are so committed to truth, and not shaping the narrative......

[null and void]

Not so humblegunner will be by shortly to blast you for pimping your blog.

Me? I just ask that when you or anyone posts something they wrote they add (vanity) to the title.

Also what does WOW stand for? Is it the initials of those counties, or what?

Thanks in advance...

[SpeedyInTexas]

Numbers I looked up about a week ago:

Interesting Factoid: Wisconsin has fewer registered voters today than the 2016 election.

Oct 1, 2020: 3,583,804 (https://elections.wi.gov/node/7147)

Nov 16 2016: 3,619,996 (https://elections.wi.gov/node/4420)

That is quite astonishing. Florida by contrast is increased by over 1 million voters in 4 years. Texas by 2 million.

I think college students are part of that. Students in the past 4 years graduated and relocated throughout the country. College students in 2020 haven’t registered to replace them. Also the pandemic has knee capped Dem voter registration drives throughout the state and country.

Have to feel more Clinton voters have disappeared than Trump voters.

[ridesthemiles]

When I was a kid rowing up in Wisconsin, students could NOT VOTE as residents of the state.

They could only vote absentee from their home addresses if they were out of state students. In state students also voted absentee using parent’s addresses.

IMO, Students have been double voting for years.

[Ravi]

% of Ballots sent to Dane/Milwaukee (Big Blue Counties) relative to rest of state:

9/17/20 - 35.0% (312,815)
9/24/20 - 33.1% (363,624)
10/01/20 - 32.6% (390,883)
10/08/20 - 32.4% (416,012)
10/15/20 - 32.0% (438,802)

These 2 counties accounted for 25.2% of ALL ballots cast in 2016 (750,407/2,976,150)


In-Person voting starts October 20th and my goal would be to get that ratio below 30% by election day. Seems on trajectory to do that especially once in-person voting starts.

And of course not all of these ballots sent will actually be cast - I'm assuming greater than 90 to 95% return.

Thoughts?