Posted on 10/18/2020 8:08:26 AM PDT by BenghaziMemoriam
Robert Barnes explains how bad the polls are. As well as being an attorney, Barnes
has wagered on elections for decades. He has never been wrong on a presidential
election. In 2016 he won 500k betting on Trump. He puts his money where his mouth is.
Ignore the polls and focus on the election fundamentals.
(Excerpt) Read more at the-american-catholic.com ...
I do think that conservatives are less likely to participate in polls than they were in 2016. But I’m not sure that necessarily translates into the same election results we had in 2016.
It’s not in the poll takers or media’s best interest to show a lopsided poll. The more controversial the poll or narrow the race, the more the news sells.
The media is clearly biased and still using push polls to try to move public opinion.
Polls are crap because nobody has land lines
Back when we had land lines, polls were accurate within 3 points
Now you can’t target people as easily and IP Data and cell phone location data is usually wrong
Phone number are so portable that a traditional New York number could be a person in Kansas City.
This is an excellent video—I would encourage any Freeper who has not seen it to do so.
We _got_ this.
Speaking of polls we’re certain are dead wrong, has anyone in need of a good laugh visited Nate Silver’s site lately? In case you didn’t know, Biden is going to win every “close” Trump-2016 state: Georgia and Texas and Ohio and Florida and Michigan and Wisconsin and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and Arizona and Iowa and he will likely cruise easily past 400 EV while the Democrats assemble a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate (not to mention what will happen in the House or the numerous state legislatures that will flip).
There’s a record-setting amount of delusion out there — one way or the other.
Plus, people have call blockers on their cell phones.
- Purely anecdotal, but Donald Trump continues to attract tens of thousands of devoted supporters to his rallies. Joe Biden doesn't draw flies.
- One of the top things that Democrat officials do is provide rides to the polls for the elderly and poor who otherwise couldn't go. During this Chinese Communist Party virus, minorities are especially scared to be in large groups and aren't about to get on a bus loaded with strangers who might have the Communist virus.
- There were a lot of Democrats who voted the first day of early voting. However, it's strongly tapered off the past few days, and the numbers listed aren't high enough to counter those of us who will vote on election day.
- I know several people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 because they didn't like him (my wife included). However, they'll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now. I have yet to hear of any credible source who said they supported Trump in 2016, but don't now.
- The drip drip drip of the Biden scandal is about to turn into a flood. It's fun to see Republicans playing the "October Surprise" game for once.
- Finally, "Undecided" voters always break towards the one with the most momentum. Trump is the wind to his back, while Biden is hiding in the basement.
And none of this accounts for the silent Trump voters who either don't want to get into arguments with their proggy kids or have their property vandalized.
Trump will prevail.
Period.
Democrats and their Antifa/BLM pawns will be finished along with their deep state enablers!
Trump’s second term will signal their impending demise!
All of the concentration camps being set up by Democrats for (coronavirus quaranteen=I.e.Trump voters) will be filled with Democrats and their pawn street armies of Antifa/BLM psychos. LOL!
I aint got 41 minutes to waste. Summarize pls.
If I happen to let one slip by and I answer it I lie to them. Mostly I don’t answer the phone if I don’t recognize the number.
If turnout is high on election day, it’s nearly all Trump voters. Democrats think that they will literally die from the COVID the second they step outside. Letting the believe this is a good thing.
We’ll find out in 3 weeks I guess.
I am not sure what your point is... because that is exactly what the media and the pollsters are doing. Therefore they must consider it to be in their “best interest”.
All polls are inaccurate, every single one.
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There are about 12% more registered voters this year over 2016. Did they get a call?
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Pollsters mostly call landlines. In 2016, about 50% had landlines, in 2020, that percentage is down to about 37%. Did the many millions that have switched to cell phones get a call?
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How many pollsters call only registered voters? How many responsible polls call only the last 4 out of 5 election voters.
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Upwards of 40% of voters are never polled by anyone, ever. 11% of those polled are undecided.......Then, how can pollsters report voting preferences that add up to 95%+ certainty?
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The reason is that pollsters get paid for real results, not the undecided and they simply don’t record the undecided.
I hate lines of any kind. I plan to vote with “early voting” this time for the first time ever. But it doesn’t start in my area until Oct 30—there are only 3 days of it. I’m going to drive by and check out the lines on Oct 30, if bad, I’ll check them out Oct 31, if still bad, I’ll get in line early on Election day and hope I don’t have to stand in line for hours but will if I need to.
I hate mail in or drop box voting even more than lines (because signatures are compared and can be tossed out). I prefer to vote in person with no signature on the ballot needed.
Just vote, mainly. If election day turnout is big, Trump is winning ... again. Early voting is really inconvenient for me, but the regular polling place is less than 2 miles away.
The pollsters are going to do a fast retreat—because early voting has _already_ _invalidated_ their polls.
They just haven’t figured it out yet!
(This is explained in the video.)
A Red Wave is coming...building....building....
if we all get 3 more people, friends, colleagues, family to vote...it will be a Red Tsunami.
Here comes the Red Wave.
Laz:
Quick bullet points...
—The early voting has already invalidated the polls. The Democrats “early voting” is nowhere near what the respondents told the pollsters it would be.
—Polls have been wrong around the world because they get librarians, teachers and unemployed “activists” to respond, while plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc. (blue collar folks) refuse to talk to them.
—Incumbent presidents are very hard to beat (discussed why in video).
—Biden is the weakest challenger since McGovern (further discussed in video).
—The pollsters are making the same errors in 2020 that they made in 2016. They have learned _nothing_.
Lots of great detailed info in the video—well worth your time imho.
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