Posted on 10/18/2020 8:08:26 AM PDT by BenghaziMemoriam
“All of the concentration camps being set up by Democrats...”
Reopen Andersonville... for democrats.
Statistics like polls have no meaning. Statistics does have a role under highly controlled environments like manufacturing with fewer variables.
The lie is that polls have any meaning. At best they measure how my indigestion is affecting my attitude at the moment of the poll.
“Biden is the weakest challenger since McGovern...”
At least McGovern was a WW2 combat vet whereas Biden has been nothing but a shyster politician his whole career.
That is why suburban women especially seem to have gone against Trump. His supporters in that family centric demographic now decline even more to participate in polls, which thus makes the available survey respondents less friendly toward Trump.
Pollsters are hard put to identify and correct for this effect. Their demographic and turnout models are thus of doubtful reliability. This makes the polls increasingly unreliable except to show relative changes, which now indicate that Trump is surging.
That is why suburban women especially seem to have gone against Trump. His supporters in that family centric demographic now decline even more to participate in polls, which thus makes the available survey respondents less friendly toward Trump.
Pollsters are hard put to identify and correct for this effect. Their demographic and turnout models are thus of doubtful reliability. This makes the polls increasingly unreliable except to show relative changes, which now indicate that Trump is surging.
The best way, IMHO, is asking, “Who do you think will win?”
The Trump voter can answer that without taking responsibility for the prediction.
And I might add this anecdotal story. I was coming out of a store a while back, when a guy from a group of Trump supporters in the parking lot approached me and asked if I wanted a Trump/Pence number sticker. I said no and he asked, "Why? Don't you support the president?"
I answered that I absolutely supported Trump and had already voted for him. I told him I just didn't wanted my care "keyed".
I hope you’re right.
That works, to a degree, but it still fails to get people into the survey who simply do not answer surveys or calls from unrecognized numbers.
EVERY nervous Nellie out there needs to watch this video - he’s confirmed my heart felt ideas.
Lax - you should watch (or listen); big takeaway: POLLING said RATs would be running up the early vote - they are not. The predictions of a big RAT win are based on early numbers. Their ammunition is spent, and now Trump enthusiasm is about to show up - he predicts a bigger poll failure than Dewey vs Truman.
It’s more complicated - in today’s environment, Trump Would really be up 40 points. In 2020, polls are unreliable - working class Trump voters don’t answer poll - Trump hating Librarians answer polls
Polls made for public consumption have always been crap.
They’ve never been anything other than a tool for manipulation.
Psycho-Social Manipulation via Pseudo-Demographics.
Program started side by side with Project Mockingbird and the LSD experiments.
The video contains excellent analysis. Including historical and present trends about polling accuracy.
Bottom line is the guy us all in for a Trump victory.
“I do think that conservatives are less likely to participate in polls than they were in 2016. But I’m not sure that necessarily translates into the same election results we had in 2016”
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Rich Baris (Peoples Pundit); Patrick Basham (Democracy Initiative); Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) all agree there is more “shy” Trump vote this time than 2016. Trafalgar even quantifies it by saying it is now “double” 2016.
Good research, thank you.
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