Nancy Mace Poll (SC): GOP Challenger Beating Joe Cunningham By Two Percentage Points

FITSNews ^ | Oct 19 | FITSNews

[RandFan]

The race for the South Carolina first congressional district is far more competitive than Democrats would have you believe. In fact, according to new polling released on Monday morning by Republican challenger Nancy Mace – she has taken the lead in her battle to unseat first-term Democrat Joe Cunningham.

According to a Monday morning news release from Mace’s campaign, the second-term state representative from Daniel Island, S.C. is drawing the support of 47 percent of likely first district voters in her bid to reclaim this Lowcountry coastal district – which was held by the GOP for nearly four decades prior to Cunningham’s upset win in 2018.

Cunningham was backed by 45 percent of likely voters in the survey – which was conducted between October 14-16, 2020 via live calling to 400 likely voters in the district.

Three weeks ago, Mace’s internal polling showed her trailing Cunningham by six percentage points.

“It is a two-week toss-up race to November 3,” one Mace advisor told us, referring to the latest data.

The Mace poll had U.S. president Donald Trump beating Democratic nominee Joe Biden by a 47-44 percent margin in the district – while U.S. senator Lindsey Graham narrowly led Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison by a 47-46 percent margin.

Those numbers jived with cross-tab data released last week in the Palmetto State by a New York Times/ Siena College survey – providing “validation (of) the Mace campaign’s numbers,” one strategist following the race told us.

According to a memo accompanying the results, “Mace is now getting the support of 90 percent of Republicans, up from 80 percent last month, as more Republicans see her message and see Joe Cunningham’s record of voting 90 percent of the time with Nancy Pelosi.”

Meanwhile, Cunningham’s support among Republicans and Independents has “dropped in successive surveys,” according to the memo.

Needless to say, this data is dramatically divergent from internal polling conducted by Democrats …

Last week, a Democratic poll showed Cunningham ahead by a whopping 13 percentage points – drawing 55 percent of the vote compared to just 42 percent for Mace.

Mace backers disputed the accuracy of that survey, which was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) – the research arm of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

“It smells wrong for (the) district,” one Mace strategist told us, referring to the fact Trump beat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 13 percentage points four years ago.

The positive polling data touted by the Mace campaign was the latest good news for her candidacy as it enters the final sixteen days of the election.

Last week, Mace reported bringing in an impressive $2.5 million between July and September – a quarterly bonanza that easily eclipsed the $1.8 million raised by Cunningham. Outspent for months by her incumbent rival, Mace reported having $1.7 million cash-on-hand as of October 1, 2020 compared to Cunningham’s $1.2 million.

“Mace momentum is REAL,” Mace tweeted in response to the fundraising numbers.

In 2018, Cunningham defeated former state representative Katie Arrington by a wafer-thin 1.4 percent margin. One big contributing factor to his upset? The refusal of the outgoing GOP lawmaker – former governor Mark Sanford – to support Arrington’s candidacy after she defeated him in the June 2018 primary.

Sanford has also refused to back Mace, although she did receive the endorsement of his successor – former governor and ex-U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. As we have frequently noted, Mace draws from a broad base of Republican support – including Trump backers and more libertarian-leaning GOP voters who support candidates like former U.S. congressman Ron Paul.

Still, few have given Mace much of a chance to defeat Cunningham this fall – citing the unexpected GOP and conservative support he has received since taking office.

In early September, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted this race from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.” Toward the end of September, the Cook Political Report followed suit and moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic” as well.

Will these numbers compel them to move the race back into the “toss-up” category?

We shall see …

[Impy]

This is a myth. GOP lost the House in 2018 because THIRTY incumbents were defeated. Most open seats were held by the party.

Only 8 seats (not counting 2 gerrymandered to be safe rat seats in PA) where GOP members *retried* (plus 1 that ran for Senate, 1 that ran for Governor, and 1 were Sanford the loser in this district lost the primary) went democrat. Most of them may very well have gone rat regardless of whether the (RINO most of the them) retried or not.

The only seats we definitely would have held with no retirement were NJ-2 (where the rat winner Van Drew is now one of us) and NM-2 which Steve Pearce left to run for Governor and which we are all but certain to get back as it is double digit Trump territory. Balance that against one seat we would have held IF the incumbent HAD retired (Rorbacher in CA)

Anyway, this seat should be a given to return. Sanford's backstabbing and the GOP nominee last time getting in a serious car wreck and being unable to campaign are the only reasons it was very narrowly lost.

[TJC]

‘Balance that against one seat we would have held IF the incumbent HAD retired (Rorbacher in CA’
My district, Michele Steel will take it back (if cheating can be held to a minimum).
She spoke today at a church in HB, as did our state reps representing that part of HB.

[LS]

I keep harping on this. There were 30 (!!!!!!!) races decided by under 2 points.

That’s indies saying “I’m not sure. I don’t know about impeachment. GOP didn’t do anything on health care. Maybe I should change.”