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Florida Early Vote update, 10/31/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/31/2020 | self

Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; florida
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To: byecomey

Now that would be nice!


41 posted on 10/31/2020 6:46:39 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Peoples_Pundit
Riddle me this...

I was a loser in my own industry and was thrown out for being a failure.

Now I pretend to be a “guru” in another industry I know nothing about. But a whole lot of rich people fund my failures and help me cover it up...
Who am I?

Answer: Nate Silver

42 posted on 10/31/2020 6:47:47 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: janetjanet998

Local 10 is pushing “souls to the polls” Sunday, see if that hurts


43 posted on 10/31/2020 6:47:58 AM PDT by italianquaker
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To: Coop

Honestly that would hurt just a little bit if we end up at around 120k. Still easy to overcome election day but seeing the trajectory going this way and then reverse...


44 posted on 10/31/2020 6:48:44 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Coop

I dont believe mine own ears and eyes but can Trump get 15-20% of the black vote.
Sounds it but every cycle rats say they are going to turn Texas blue also


45 posted on 10/31/2020 6:49:57 AM PDT by italianquaker
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To: bort; All
I think the D lead was down to about 270K yesterday morning, correct? Hoping another 15-20K was chopped off on Friday.

Dem lead in NC down to 255K

As a reminder, in 2016 Dems had a lead in NC of 310K ballots cast, yet lost the state by ~178K votes. A swing of nearly a half million votes assuming 100% partisan voting.

46 posted on 10/31/2020 6:50:48 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: JamesP81

Thank you!

Very good news in light of the numbers seen at rallies, where, what was it recently...?

13,000 registered
30% were democrats
25% were NPA

...that means that fully 55% attending the rally were not Republicans. Simply amazing.


47 posted on 10/31/2020 6:51:01 AM PDT by SheepWhisperer (My enemy saw me on my knees, head bowed and thought they had won until I rose up and said Amen!)
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To: hollywood12345

“Adding 6 more votes in Fl this morning...One is Independent.”

Bless you.


48 posted on 10/31/2020 6:57:09 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi; SpeedyInTexas; byecomey; LS
I expect it will reverse a bit, due to GOP voting areas closing and more Souls to Polls events. But I'm not as pessimistic as Speedy.

According to this source the final Dem early voting lead in FL in 2016 was 117K, a gap of 1.36%.

49 posted on 10/31/2020 6:59:11 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: All

Bookmark


50 posted on 10/31/2020 7:00:26 AM PDT by lovesdogs
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To: Coop

Oh, FFS. Can someone get a number?

First it was 88,000, which was what we all used for years. Then it was, ‘Oh, no, it was higher, it was 96,000.” Now it’s 117,000?

Not yelling at you, just wish we could ALL agree on an election even # and stick with it.


51 posted on 10/31/2020 7:01:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Coop

Yeah, my confidence level in NC is pretty high.


52 posted on 10/31/2020 7:07:55 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: byecomey; Coop

“No, I think that was LS using that as his overall ending vote lead. I have 65K for Election Day.”

If you guys are talking about the Dem lead for all EVs in 2016. Ds led by 96k.

Totals here: http://www.electionczar.com/floridaearlyvote.html

If you don’t believe, you can go calculate from DOE:
https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf


53 posted on 10/31/2020 7:10:05 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: byecomey

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

Approx 96k according to state of FL


54 posted on 10/31/2020 7:11:10 AM PDT by southpaw1
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To: LS; byecomey; SpeedyInTexas

I gave you a linked number. Speedy and byecomey gave you numbers, too. Pick one. :-)


55 posted on 10/31/2020 7:11:18 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: All

10:08am

last 3 updates

+737 -(-136) = +873 net
+1141 -4 = +1136 net
+1298 -189. = +1109 net

at 10am Leon(D county) Lake and Lee counties(big reds with decent population) come online

they are a combined net R+ IPEV 46,167 over 12 days or 3,847 a day

I will be conservative and take 65% of that daily number and divide by 24

should add 105 more IPEV per hour an average that we didn’t have today until now


56 posted on 10/31/2020 7:11:47 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: LS; Coop; bort; janetjanet998; Ravi; SpeedyInTexas

Hi Larry,

I guess different people have different definitions! I propose using this source:

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

=(1049809 Dem VBM+1580003 Dem IPEV)-(1108053 Rep VBM+1425309 Rep IPEV)

If my math is correct, it is indeed 96,450.


57 posted on 10/31/2020 7:12:08 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: janetjanet998

Great start.


58 posted on 10/31/2020 7:12:44 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Ping


59 posted on 10/31/2020 7:15:08 AM PDT by wfu_deacons
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To: Coop

I know. It’s maddening how these sources can all be so off.

Currently the lead is 107,592.

So distance to first target is just 10,000.

Are now up 6,000 toward Trump’s final margin of 113,000 at the end of election night.


60 posted on 10/31/2020 7:16:27 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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