[SpeedyInTexas]

Some thoughts as we enter the home stretch and a question for byecomey.


Election Eve

Monday morning, everyone please post your Florida predictions. Don't be shy. If you are dead right, we won't hold it against you.

I've had my prediction formula in mind for 1 month. It is
(81.2% * Registered Rs) MINUS
(D VBM return rate on Election Eve * Registered Ds) PLUS
58k (number I think Trump wins Indys by).

Florida Man, we need your prediction also. We also thank you for all the work you have done in Miami.


Election Day

As far I as know, JoeIsDone should work on Election Day just as it is working today. ByeComey, any reason to think otherwise?

If it works as I think it should, we can continue to follow voting in Florida. We can see when Rs pass Ds in voting. We should come up with an estimate for Miami/Sarasota that we mentally add to the Dem lead on Election Day morning.

Ravi, do you want to volunteer to come up with that number?

On Election Day, we can see where D and R turnout is heading. If Rs exceed 81.2% or Ds falling short of our estimated turnout for them, Trump in good shape. If R turnout falls from 81.2%, obviously not good.

We can know how Florida is looking when the polls close with JoeIsDone before the entire country.

People still in line when voting ends, can generally still vote, so JoeIsDone could show vote updates continuing.

Any other thoughts for Election Eve and Election Day?

[SpeedyInTexas]

94,674 D lead officially below their 2016 lead.

Hooray for our side!

[byecomey]

As far I as know, JoeIsDone should work on Election Day just as it is working today. ByeComey, any reason to think otherwise?

Yes, that’s correct.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Ravi, do you want to volunteer to come up with that number?”

If you are poll watching Tuesday, you may not have time.

Ideally we’d come up with a number Tuesday morning after official DOE 8:30am report.

Or we can just note that JoeIsDone will be missing those numbers.

[LS]

I’ll be out most of both days getting ready for the webcast at www.decisionusa2020online.com