Posted on 09/08/2021 12:15:57 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Two separate polls of the Gavin Newsom recall election show the governor opening up large leads in the final days of the campaign.
The first, from Survey USA and the San Diego Union-Tribune, shows 51% of respondents voting "no" on the recall ballot's first question (Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled?), with 43% voting "yes" and 6% undecided. A separate poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) showed Newsom leading question one by an even wider 58% to 39% margin — a 19 percentage-point lead that appears seemingly insurmountable.
Advertisement Of course, polls — especially ones from 2016 and beyond — that show Democrats with comfortable leads have not always been accurate. The 2020 presidential election featured a polling miss as large as the 2016 miss, and a great deal has been written on why polls seem to consistently undersample conservative voters.
Rather than enter a discussion around "shy" Trump/recall voters, response rates in the work-from-home era or weighting by education, perhaps the best way to determine the reliability of the Newsom recall polls is by seeing how well Survey USA and PPIC performed in California's last statewide election — which was less than a year ago with pollsters working under the same COVID-19 related constraints.
Below is a table showing numbers from Survey USA's final poll for the 2020 general election compared with actual results. Included are the results of four races: 1. The presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 2. California's Proposition 15 (raising property taxes on commercial and industrial properties), 3. California's Proposition 16 (lifting a ban on affirmative action) and 4. California's Proposition 22 (granting app-based transportation and delivery companies an exception to a state labor law by classifying drivers as independent contractors rather than employees).
The "conservative" side for the three ballot measures are "no" on Prop. 15, "no" on Prop. 16 and "yes" on Prop. 22. Because a recall election is a special election with lower-than-expected turnout, looking at past polling on ballot measures may be more useful than polling on big-ticket, top-of-ballot races like the presidential election.
Survey USA logged some massive misses on Prop. 15 and Prop. 16, largely explained by the large portion of respondents who said they were undecided. On Prop. 15, Survey USA found 49% of respondents voting "yes," 21% voting "no" and a whopping 30% saying they were undecided. In the end, 52% of Californians voted "no" and 48% voted "yes," so unless every single undecided voter decided to vote "no" at the last second, this constitutes a major miss.
For Prop. 16, Survey USA's polling found 40% of respondents voting "yes," 26% voting "no" and 34% undecided. The final result was 57% voting "no" and 43% voting "yes." Survey USA's polling for Prop. 22, on the other hand, was fairly accurate, predicting a win of 14 percentage points (Prop. 22 passed by 17 percentage points). If we work under the assumption that Survey USA's undecided voters consistently seem to end up taking the "conservative" side, then the recall could be a nail-biter, as Survey USA's final recall survey shows 51% opposing the recall, 43% in support and 6% undecided.
PPIC fared better than Survey USA in 2020 — but still missed on Prop. 15 and did not ask respondents about Prop. 22.
If we take PPIC's worst miss from 2020 (Prop. 15) and assume a similar eight-percentage-point miss in the recall, Newsom would still survive by 11 percentage points, as PPIC's final recall poll shows Newsom leading by 19.
Polls from earlier in the summer attempted to weight by how likely a voter is to actually cast a ballot, as Republicans have been more enthusiastic about the recall than Democrats. More recent polls show the enthusiasm gap shrinking, and given the makeup of California's electorate (47% Democratic, 24% Republican, 23% nonaffiliated, 6% other), that's very good news for Newsom.
Additional polling, including from the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, is expected ahead of the Sept. 14 recall election.
Everything we don’t like is ‘Fake News’.
Two words:
Ballot Harvesting
No.
Most people I know dislike Newsom but Elder? I mean I’ve read my Von Mises, but openly calling for eliminating the minimum wage is a losing tactic, as is suggesting that companies should inquire into the childbearing plans of women. To say nothing of being anti-abortion, which may play well in Texas but not in California.
If he were trying to lose he couldn’t do much better.
I’d be very surprised if anyone in Sacramento is actually losing sleep, despite Gov Goodhair’s dramatic flair.
People who cheat at elections are likely to cheat at polling too.
Right, the Prop 22 voters are backing the recall....
Those voters flipped the prop 22 ballot initiative from likely fail just about 4 weeks out, to an upset victory.
Same thing appears to be forming for the recall.
Way more signs out saying... Vote YES to recall....than the confusing ...Stop the Republican recall....which could cause Democrats to think republicans are being recalled....
Gotta have a clear message.
Its not the voters, its the vote counters who will make the decision.
They said Mike Dukakis was in a dead heat with Bush. They said Mondale was making a comeback. They said Reagan and Carter was too close to call, then claimed everyone made their mind up at the last minute when Reagan won a landslide.
I’m an old guy and the Democrats are always going to win, or it’s fifty fifty. They never published any polls at all during McGovern/Nixon and none after the primaries in the Reagan/Mondale race. It’s always the same old crap with these people. Their job is to create Democrat wins, if voting matters anymore.
It doesn’t matter who votes or how many votes are cast. Haven’t we learned anything? Our votes aren’t going to win against an election process that creates as many votes they need out of thin air. Nothing has changed yet and until we get forensic audits in all 50 states, nothing will change.
Unbelievably stupid question.
Sorry but it’s a cake walk for Newsome, poll or no poll.
Nixon/Reagan’s California is long long gone.
Elder is one of like 40 candidates on the ballot.
As far as I know, there is no voter integrity in the State of California. Elections have been rigged for many years.
I predict an easy win for the communist Newsom. It is not a matter of who votes, but who counts the votes--Stalin.
Far and away the best known Republican, though.
The California Republican Party was its usual stupid self in not getting behind one candidate and running hard.
Not many Democrats are going to vote ‘yes’, and they were too dumb to unite behind a back-up candidate, so very unlikely that Newsome is both voted out and a Dem voted in. Obviously not impossible, but would require a level of ineptitude unusual even for my fellow Californians.
I’m waiting for the Trafalgar poll to be released. Should be soon.
Thanks to GWB and the open borders cabel. The Republican party has backstabbed California repeatedly - and then bitched about the bleeding
Relax...
The communists have the necessary ballots printed, signed, and strategically located in preparation for election day +1...
The 2020 election theft will look like amateur night in comparison...
It is California, after all.
And not a particularly big amount of urgency on the talk radio circuit to get the GOP base (which does exist, however small) to show up with high turnout. Just occasional, passing mentions.
“No, the polls are being cooked to cover for the steal..”
Are they voting by mail already in California? This ‘poll’ could be a way to encourage more remote votes.
they were voting by mail for this weeks/months ago so you could be on to something.
but ballots don’t matter, they control the counting now.
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