Posted on 01/22/2022 6:29:11 PM PST by TigerClaws
President Vladimir Putin is more likely than not to invade Ukraine again in the coming weeks. As someone who helped President Barack Obama manage the U.S. and international response to Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and our effort to keep Moscow from occupying the whole country into 2015, I am distressingly convinced of it.
Why? I see the scale and type of force arrayed by the Russian military, the ultimatums issued by Putin and his officials, the warlike rhetoric that has until recently saturated Russian airwaves, and the impatience with talks expressed by his foreign minister. Add to that the likely anxiety produced in Putin by the demonstrations last week in Kazakhstan—and Moscow’s success in tamping them down.
But the basic reason I think talks with Russia will fail is that the United States and its allies have nothing they can immediately offer Moscow in exchange for a de-escalation.
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The United States must do more than issue ultimatums about sanctions and economic penalties. U.S. leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war.
If Russia prevails again, we will remain stuck in a crisis not just over Ukraine but about the future of the global order far beyond that country’s borders. Left unrestrained, Putin will move swiftly, grab some land, consolidate his gains, and set his sights on the next satellite state in his long game to restore all the pre-1991 borders: the sphere of geographical influence he deems was unjustly stripped from Great Russia.
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The world will watch our response. Any subsequent acceptance of Russian gains will spell the beginning of the end of the international order. If Europe, NATO, and its allies in Asia and elsewhere fail to defend the foundational United Nations principles of sanctity of borders and state sovereignty, no one will. Any appeasement will only beget future land grabs not only from Putin, but also from China in Taiwan and elsewhere. And if the world’s democracies lack the political will to stop them, the rules-based international order will collapse. The United Nations will go the way of the League of Nations. We will revert to spheres of global influence, unbridled military and economic competition, and ultimately, world war.
Yes, this is alarming, but it’s not alarmist. We should be alarmed. Nuclear Russia is a revisionist, revanchist power acting already as if there is no international order or United Nations, ignoring the Geneva Conventions, UN Charter, Helsinki Accords or any of the host of regional agreements Moscow has signed.
I believe Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is even more likely after watching Russian forces quell the current round of demonstrations in Kazakhstan. The demonstrations in Almaty and throughout the country likely only intensified Putin’s alarm for democratic uprisings, or what he calls “color revolutions,” and renewed his commitment to use armed forces against them throughout the region.
Today’s mustering of American and European forces in response to Russia’s military and political aggression must be described for what it is: a fight to preserve the international order and the United Nations established to protect it, including NATO. Remember, the Western alliance was established under the umbrella of the UN Charter, which recognizes a role for regional security organizations to help keep the peace. But lately those organizations and their member states have proven unable to stop Russian expansion.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago last month, the Russian Federation has fought gradually to maintain and regain dominance of the Soviet republics and the former East Bloc, especially after Putin came to power. Russia has established military bases in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Moldova. Russia encouraged secessionists in Moldova and Georgia to create breakaway territories and in 2008 invaded Georgia, still occupying 20 percent of the state’s territory. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, declared the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine henceforth revised through military force. This was the first time military force had been employed to change borders in Europe since Hitler’s invasions and occupations. It was an audacious rebuke of the world order established at the end of the World War II.
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The United Nations and international community condemned the 2014 landgrab, much as it did when Saddam Hussein invaded and attempted to annex Kuwait in 1990. In the latter case, the international community demanded Iraq’s immediate withdrawal—and didn’t stop there. Nations authorized the use of military force in the event that Iraq refused to withdraw by Jan. 15, 1991. The international community united in the defense of international borders and Kuwait’s sovereign rights.
By contrast, when Putin limited his landgrab to Crimea, much of the international community decided the immediate threat had been eliminated, or limited to Ukrainians. As a result, the Russian leader is now making larger demands. He wants two new treaties that would prevent NATO from accepting new members, stationing military forces in member states that joined after 1997, placing nuclear weapons in members’ territory, and embarking on any activity in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
We are now, as a former U.S. ambassador put it in a recently, “at a moment of truth.” If Putin refuses to negotiate about things that are negotiable, like arms controls, and insists on curtailing NATO membership and military basing and operations, we will be a diplomatic standstill. If that happens, our best bet is a new Cold War.
The only way to reassert the primacy of international law and sanctity of international borders, and contain Russia, may be to issue our own ultimatum. We must not only condemn Russia’s illegal occupations of Ukraine and Georgia, but we must demand a withdrawal from both countries by a certain date and organize coalition forces willing to take action to enforce it.
To be sure, nuclear-armed Russia is far more powerful than Saddam’s Iraq. But from my 96-year old father who witnessed world war, I learned si vis pacem, para bellum: he who wants peace must prepare for war. Only a balance of military power—a deterrent force and the political will to match—can keep war at bay and the military dynamic frozen.
The horrible possibility exists that Americans, with our European allies, must use our military to roll back Russians—even at risk of direct combat. But if we don’t now, Putin will force us to fight another day, likely to defend our Baltic or other Eastern European allies.
When this week’s talks end and Moscow moves its military forward, the United States and our allies around the world must take all of the steps the Biden administration has laid out including sanctions, export controls of technologies, and arming Ukraine. But that’s not enough. Biden should go to the United Nations immediately to rally the global community of nations. We must build a new coalition of the willing to enforce the state sovereignty enshrined in the UN Charter.
Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia in the Obama administration, and as former senior advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander, NATO.
(The US Must Prepare for War Against Russia Over Ukraine
Why?)
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Uh, what is COVID-19?
(Well, I mean it’s the excuse for everything else these days...)
If the US military is fighting to protect a border, 99% of Americans are prepared to accept them starting with the border next to Mexico.
(testified against Trump and under oath admitted she had no real evidence or firsthand knowledge)
Yeah, but... It’s not a lie... If she believes it. /George Costanza
Evelyn N. Farkas....Obamadork Democrat War Shill...
BS! Defend Americas borders. No more foreign entanglements!
If we are going to pick a fight with Russia….one needs to wonder if we are watching our back side. It wouldn’t take much to wreck the Alaskan pipeline or any one of our western ports.
I hope someone is keeping an eye out for subs in the pacific.
“It was not a power Congress could lawfully delegate.”
They already have.
“The War Powers Resolution (1973) requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force.”
And that 48 hours is post the deployment.
Another note is that both the US and the Ukraine are members of NATO and those countries in that group may get involved based upon NATO’s position on invasions.
“There is complete agreement among the allies in the case of a direct attack against one or more Alliance members. NATO members have the right—indeed, the obligation under Article 5 of the Washington treaty—to act forcefully to restore the status quo ante at the first possible opportunity.”
Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
And the ridiculous part is that Russia is a member of NATO.
wy69
“* Arm Ukraine - Yes
* Provide training and intelligence - Yes
* Support our allies who want to help - Yes
* Send Americans to die in another war - Hell No”
THIS.
The US Must Prepare for War Against Russia Anyone Over Ukraine the US
Good for Russia. Maybe we’ll stop hearing about Ukraine when it becomes part of Russia.
I respect vets as I am one and shot twice. Do you really believe our military is up to combat ?
Russia left Afghan with drug addicts and troops in the worse readiness state. These kids are not ready for combat-are you?
I’m waiting to hear what that fat chow thief Vindman has to say.
Yeah but it took a world war to get rid of the League of Nations.
I am kind of a war hawk but we have no business getting involved is a dispute with Russia over Ukraine.
“I hope someone is keeping an eye out for subs in the pacific.”
They’ve been there for years along with the Atlantic.
There are a couple at the opening from the Pacific that have been there specifically to monitor communications and track the nuclear subs out of Naval Base Kitsap from the Juan De Fuca narrows since 1981. We lie to them.
wy69
When I was 17 years old, I enlisted in the Navy. The Viet Nam war had not yet started. Later, the Gulf of Tonkin incident occurred and soon after we were at war. I was young and didn’t realize how worthless an effort it was. Now, later in my life I look back and realize that most of these so-called wars have meant little and have caused so much pain and suffering for no real justifiable purpose. No. We do not need to fight the Russians. And if war eventually occurs, it should be the worthless politicians who should be the the first ones who shed their own blood over it.
Yeah I don’t see an upside to letting Russia continue it’s acquisition streak.
Exactly.
Go to a store.
The supply lines are not able to be up HERE. Let along in eastern Europe.
And we can’t do it with a defeated military
OF course Biden has something to offer to Russia. Ukraine. It’s not our fight but Putin knows all of Biden’s dirty little secrets and will spill them. Biden is also weak and stupid. If any war between Russia and USA is to happen on Ukraine soil it will be because Biden has stumbled in to it while his diaper was soiled. I can’t believe what one year of this demonic chomo has wrought..
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