Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Good morning.
I don’t like the projected path of Isn.
5.56mm
ANy guess as to win the sheer will start kicking in,the discussion I saw said aournd 36 hours,but who knows.
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Ian's satellite presentation continued to improve up until the center reached the coast of western Cuba around 0830 UTC. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm until around 0400 UTC reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 101 kt, and a peak SFMR wind of 97 kt.
During the final pass through the center, dropsonde data supported a minimum pressure of 960 mb. Given the continued improvement in satellite imagery, Dvorak data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB of T5.5 (102 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS of T5.4 (100 kt), the intensity was increased to 100 kt shortly after 0600 UTC.
The latest objective Dvorak estimates have increased to around 110 kt, and that is the estimated landfall intensity and initial intensity for this advisory.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm as it moves off the northern coast of Cuba this morning.
Ian is expected to spend only spend a few hours over western Cuba, and little overall change in strength is likely during that time.
The center should emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, where warm water and generally low vertical wind shear conditions are expected to allow for additional intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for Ian to reach category 4 strength.
By 24 to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening.
However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions.
Ian has turned northward and is moving 355/10 kt. The hurricane should continue on a northward motion today around the westernperiphery of a subtropical ridge.
After that time, a broad troughover the eastern United States is expected to cause anorth-northeastward turn. There continues to be larger-than-normal spread in the track guidance by 36-48 hours, however the trend in the global models has been more southward and eastward over the last cycle or two.
As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted to the southeast of the previous forecast and it lies just west of the TVCA multi-model consensus aid. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible, and wind, storm surge, andrainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
The updated forecast track has necessitated several changes to the warnings and watches across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula, including an extension of the Hurricane Warning southward to Bonita Beach on the west coast.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba this morning.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials.
3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late today.
4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday. This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central to northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected across Central Florida into Southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.7N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.4N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.3N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 31.7N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Forecaster Brown/Latto
Thank you for all you do to create and maintain these threads!
Praying for all you wonderful peeps in Florida.
Sadly, this looks like the track that everyone has hoped to avoid for a century. May it not verify as currently forecast.
Many thanks, and mucho respect, to NN for ALL that she does for this community.
LOL—I check in when I am tired of packing up the vehicles for evacualtion.
I know. I’m wondering now what stops it at 140 or is that not a real number? I know there is some sheer coming at some point accd. to NHC.
Thank you! Glad your island paradise is in the periphery of nast Ian.
Wind sheer and land interaction, although I think the storm is bigger than FL.
NOt looking good for sure prayers are always a good thing.
Thanks, zzeeman. Haven’t done this much packing, moving and shaking since Hurricane Charley in 2004.
You are welcome,yeah we are definitely dodging a bullet on this one. Hard to say what is in store for the rest of the state.I wonder if those evacuating the area are advised to head north or south?
I live in Indiana, and we had two very strong high pressure systems to our west yesterday with very strong westerly winds yesterday.
I listened to Ryan Hall’s YouTube forecast last night, and he was saying there is some hope these strong high pressures will push east and south and quickly mitigate the worst of Ian.
Whether this is true or not, or even if true whether this will occur soon enough to help Florida, I don’t know.
Historical anecdotes suggest that blue structures resist extreme weather 746% better than any other color.
Is you blue?
There was a mention of sheer to Ian dont know if the two are related or not.
gotta go to work!
I have wanted a blue shed for several years now. One of these days...
Unfortunately, we are facing a near-stall with the storm effects lasting up to 36 hours. Even a strong structure gets beaten down after prolonged assault. The storm is expected to be here through two high tide cycles. Sigh.
Right now, I’m wishing the jeep’s hydraulic clutch was blue. Waitin on the sun to come up so I can tear into it. Thoughts are with you all, we’ll be making much noise in support if you need it...stay safe!
I am so sorry. Please stay safe. And thanks again for these threads.
I am from the Texas Gulf coast and know how dangerous these storms can be.
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