Hurricane Idalia - Gulf of Mexico

NHC/NOAA ^ | 26 August 2023 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.

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NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

[clintonh8r]

Almost every storm has the potential to become “major.” Where have you seen predictions of category 3 or 4?

[glennaro]

Exellent (and sad) point. Although it may take a while, the gouging usually self-corrects through competitive pressure (that is, by the customers); artificial controls can actually prolong it. Cheers!

[Joe Brower]

"I hate hurricane season... that said, we do need the rain..."

That's for certain. You have to take the bad with the good.

If Florida didn't get a few tropical storms and/or hurricanes every year, we'd never get our required annual rainfall.

I say this as someone who is still in the process of putting our guest house back together after Ian hit on 9/28/22. $;-)

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for checking in, Joe. You are so right that we need the rain to make it though dry season. Especially with all of the new Floridians that call the Sunshine State home.

[Rockingham]

Destin/FWB is a lovely area and has always seemed immune to the worst during hurricane season. Of course, like all runs of luck, that sort of good fortune never lasts.

[rodguy911]

If anyone is off base it's you.This is NN’s thread. What she says here goes. This thread is too important for silly infighting so go troll somewhere else.

[rodguy911]

Great post after monitoring hundreds of storms since the 50’s I know you are right.

[thesearethetimes...]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbr.ifunny.co%2Fpicture%2Ffloridians-in-a-hurricane-floridians-in-a-cold-snap-yyBACfyeA&psig=AOvVaw3qikb0V1VsIT4-vPSCP05P&ust=1693249715758000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CA0QjRxqFwoTCMii0IPF_YADFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD

😉 Do love Florida, hurricanes, gators, sinkholes and all.
Dad was career Navy, and we ping ponged between every base in the state. Could not ask for a better childhood.

Tatt

[jpsb]

This is NN’s thread. What she says here goes.

Bump!

[NautiNurse]

Good to see you on the thread. Thanks, tatt.

[subterfuge]

Great. We need the rain.

[NautiNurse]

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of FL
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of FL
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of FL
south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.

400 PM CDT Update
-------------------------------
About 95 MI ESE of Cozumel Mexico
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Movement...NE at 3 MPH
Minimum Pressure...995 MB

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[Guenevere]

I like the way you think!

[janetjanet998]

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia’s cloud pattern is gradually becoming a little better
organized, with a curved convective band forming over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is currently
restricted over the northern portion of the system, however.
The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission
into the storm is scheduled for tonight.

The tropical cyclone continues to move rather slowly, and the
initial motion estimate is 040/3 kt. Idalia should remain in a weak
steering pattern through tonight so slow and possibly erratic
motion is likely for the next 12 hours. On Monday, a mid-level
ridge begins to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slightly east of northward motion during
the next day or two. When the system moves into the northeast Gulf
of Mexico, a mid-level trough developing over the eastern United
states will likely cause Idalia to turn northeastward with an
increase in forward speed. The new official forecast is again
shifted slightly eastward, and is somewhat faster than the previous
one. This is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is
also between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be
traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat
content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist.
The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some
vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be
compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence.
There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance,
ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on
the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a
little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher
end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor
future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength
of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the
hurricane and storm surge watch areas.

[baclava]

Thank you for your concern.

I have a theory, Hurlburt Field has a lot of sky irradiating microvaves for their spooky AFSCOC stuff, the clouds seem to part over us, magically, at times

Go AF!

Hua!

[M Kehoe]

Hi.

Between you and me 3 kts forward movement and 995 mb is NOT an encouraging sign.

5.56mm

[NautiNurse]

No comfy feelings here. When Idalia lifts N into the GOM, it will pick up forward speed. Models are shifting E toward Tampa Bay. Watching carefully.

Stay safe.

[numberonepal]

This is what I get for bragging about it being a quiet season (so far).

[M Kehoe]

And GOMEX is hot.

5.56mm

[NautiNurse]

Idalia will pass through the very warm loop current in the GOM.