Posted on 11/07/2023 2:45:03 AM PST by Morgana
When some very unexpected turn of events occurs, I am always on the lookout for the best possible explanation. Perhaps the biggest surprise this year is the race for governor of Kentucky where incumbent pro-abortion Gov. Andy Beshear was far ahead of pro-life Attorney General Daniel Cameron until the latest poll campaign out.
Last month an Emerson College poll had Beshear up by a whopping 16 points. But a poll last week had them tied at 47% each.
What can explain Cameron making up a 16 point deficit in a month? As we discussed on Friday, Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said,
“Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase. Notably, October’s poll was of registered voters in Kentucky, while this final election poll includes only those who are very likely or have already voted in Kentucky
Clearly that is part of the explanation, but Matt Margolis argues that a sense of Beshear’s track record would have prevented observers from overrating him.
For example, in 2019, Beshear defeated the incumbent by the slimmest of margins, less than a point. Had Kentucky suddenly done a flip and started voting for Democrats? This, Margolis said, made “no sense.”
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A thorough examination of the facts, however, proved otherwise. Beshear had won by a mere 0.4 points, while all of the other five statewide elections were won by Republicans—four of them by double digits. Kentucky was no more becoming a blue state than Massachusetts was becoming a red state when it elected and reelected Republican Charlie Baker as governor.
Clearly, Cameron had momentum. Writing at the Washington Examiner Salena Zito concluded
“Even before the new poll from Emerson College came out Friday morning, the ground was shifting in Daniel Cameron’s favor across the state in the Republican Kentucky attorney general’s race against incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) for the state’s highest office.”
Zito concludes
There is a fairly decent chance Wednesday morning that much of the national press will wake up and ask once again, “What happened?”
You can read more about why and how the momentum shifted at the Washington Examiner.
Gotta go and vote today. Tell you straight up - Iz be voting fer da Black man.
I voted early Saterday for Cameron.
Red state. Make it happen.
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