If the cycle holds, there will be a dip (sell the news) when the halving happens this spring - followed by the strongest part of the bull run through the rest of this year and well into 2025 when it peaks in a frenzy somewhere well into 6 digits. Followed by a pullback that could take it back into 5 figures again (I rather doubt we'll ever be seeing $15K again).
The biggest threat to the cycle IMO would be macroeconomic factors. Until recently I expected a loosening monetary policy and dropping interest rates to coincide nicely with the strongest portion of the bull run. Now it looks like inflation may be reigniting, which will result in tighter monetary policy. That means less money floating around for people to invest, which translates into less fiat being traded for Bitcoin.
Still, that would have to be an extreme effect to counter the inflows we are now seeing from ETF investors. And since many investors will dollar-cost average over time, I expect to see some moderation in bitcoin price swings going forward.
Oct of 2025
80 weeks past halving is the peak.
Sell.
Re enter at lower.
Bitcoin typically peaks 80 weeks post halving
Bitcoin may peak Oct of 2025
From this youtuber:
Kevin Svenson