“ Unless Trump has moved the needle significantly with respect to black, Hispanic, Asian and Jewish voters, a third party candidacy could have a greater impact now than in 1980.”
Get 70% of the white vote and you won’t have to worry about the others.
In 2020, Trump received 58% of the white vote. Getting to 70% is possible if the moderate vote, which broke 64%-34% for Biden, moves to Trump this time. The white percentage of the voting public was 67% in 2020; it will likely decline by 2-3 percentage points this year. Additionally, rural and blue collar whites are moving to the Right, while suburban voters have been moving to the Left.