My intuition is that #3 is the smallest division, and that #7 is much smaller still. So, Haley's failure to endorse Trump only cost him the votes of those who would never vote for him anyway.
Sorry: that should read ... #5, not #7, is smaller still.
I’m in the “voted for Trump twice but won’t again” category. His resorting to “name-calling” (Birdbrain/Desanctimonious) is disqualifying imo. Savvy Dems will help make him the nominee and he’ll lose again.