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Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success
ISW ^ | March 27, 2024 | By Nataliya Bugayova and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 03/30/2024 3:58:42 AM PDT by Chad C. Mulligan

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: allpropaganda; ciaphuckers; dailypropaganda; inbred; isw; kagan; kagankluxklan; lesspropagandaplease; moscow; neocons; nuland; realism; russiax3; russophobe; stalemate; ukraine; war; warpigcentral; ww3; wwiii
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

banging the war drums is getting pretty old


41 posted on 03/30/2024 6:08:01 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: AndyJackson

Ha, Ha, ha......... we see your post.

You have no argument. You lose.


42 posted on 03/30/2024 6:10:34 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. +12) Hamascide is required in totality)
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To: AndyJackson
…winning Asian land wars…



If you’re looking for what’s left of your credibility, you might try here:


43 posted on 03/30/2024 6:13:24 AM PDT by Apparatchik (Русские свиньи, идите домой!)
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To: FreedomForce
so you admit there’s a need for a peace deal?

Right, because Putin will honor this peace deal. Okay

List of treaties Putin violated by invading Ukraine:

UN Charter 1945

Nuclear NPT 1970

Helsinki Accords 1975

Belovezha Accords 91–92

Budapest Memo 94

Black Sea Fleet Treaty 97

Friendship Treaty 98

Treaty on Azov Sea & Kerch Strait 03

Border treaty 03

Karkiv pact 10

Putin even broke a treaty he personally signed with Ukraine, the 2003 “Treaty Between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on the Russian–Ukrainian State Border”. It set Ukraine’s borders as they were in 1991 & was lodged with the UN.


44 posted on 03/30/2024 6:14:40 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: Alter Kaker

It’s odd that you chose a picture from the last major conflict “we” won. Been kinda downhill from there...

Makes since that “we’re” sending ammo to “other boys (and girls)” to fight this conflict.


45 posted on 03/30/2024 6:17:57 AM PDT by moovova ("The NEXT election is the most important election of our lifetimes!“ LOL...)
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

People need to imagine what would happen if Russia placed nukes and troops and airplanes in Cuba

Cuba would become the 51st state-or at least a territory equivalent to Puerto Rico- in about 6 months

Its all really that simple


46 posted on 03/30/2024 6:20:03 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: AndyJackson
while drawing off the resources we need to execute defense of our very threatened maritime interests

Which weapons are being drawn off that are needed to defend our "threatened maritime interests"? 155mm artillery shells? Javelin anti-tank missiles? Himars? Bradley fighting vehicles?

47 posted on 03/30/2024 6:21:52 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: AndyJackson
a war in Ukraine plays into the strengths of an Asian land power, Russia

Weird lesson to draw given that Russia has lost several hundred thousand lives and failed to conquer Ukraine, and the US has lost... not one life.

drawing off the resources we need to execute defense of our very threatened maritime interests

Maybe our ships will be torpedoed by the Russian Black Sea fleet, newly converted to submarine status.

I love taking lessons from a dope who obviously flunked geography class. Excited to go eat some Asian strudel after I tire of your pro-Kremlin anti-Americanism.

48 posted on 03/30/2024 6:25:11 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Alter Kaker

“....and the US has lost... not one life” eh not so fast

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/ex-pentagon-advisor-says-at-least-400-americans-died-in-ukra

not that you’d find that info in the NYT


49 posted on 03/30/2024 6:28:06 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: moovova
It’s odd that you chose a picture from the last major conflict “we” won. Been kinda downhill from there...

I don't know, every single country in Europe other than Russia, Belarus and Serbia is a military ally of ours and the United States is the pre-eminent military, economic and cultural power in the world as we have been since 1945.

Makes since that “we’re” sending ammo to “other boys (and girls)” to fight this conflict.

Hey if you wanna volunteer, be my guest, but nobody is asking America to deploy ground forces.

50 posted on 03/30/2024 6:29:04 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: mo

You’re quoting a paid Kremlin apparatchik? Cool. Have any credible sources?


51 posted on 03/30/2024 6:29:39 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Chad C. Mulligan
Men are born ignorant but not stupid.

Well, you got the ignorant part down pat. The arrogance of thinking one side is manipulated, but those that agree with you aren't. Between that and your condescending little rant makes it clear you fully accept whatever biden and the msm instruct you to. And then in an act of projection you accuse others of your own ignorance.
52 posted on 03/30/2024 6:30:12 AM PDT by JoSixChip (2020: The year of unreported truths; 2021: My main take away from this year? Trust no one.)
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To: mo
People need to imagine what would happen if Russia placed nukes and troops and airplanes in Cuba

Russians have always had troops and planes in Cuba. They have them now in Venezuela including a naval base.

As for nukes, no one was going to place nukes in Ukraine.

53 posted on 03/30/2024 6:31:41 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: mo

Not just quoting a paid Kremlin operative, you have a paid Kremlin operative quoted in Iranian-state run propaganda. Great sourcing on your part. Maybe you can back it up with something from Kim Jong Un.


54 posted on 03/30/2024 6:32:06 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: OVERTIME
But what will happen if Russia loses? The Russians have told us, repeatedly, calmly and precisely.

They will start an atomic war.

Right, bow down always to nuclear blackmail. China? North Korea? Soon Iran?

No one is threatening the existence of Russia, if they leave Ukraine, the war is over.

55 posted on 03/30/2024 6:38:31 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: Alter Kaker

prove he is an “Kremlin apparatchik” ..whatever that may be-

it doesn’t appear to be listed in his Wikipedia bio-which appears testifies to more credibility than most commentators

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor


56 posted on 03/30/2024 6:39:27 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

Sea kelp.


57 posted on 03/30/2024 6:42:06 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (THE ISSUE IS NEVER THE ISSUE. THE REVOLUTION IS THE ISSUE.)
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To: tlozo

Even with all that, there will be a peace deal with Putin sooner or later. The longer this goes on, the more Ukrainian territory Russia will have as bargaining chips. The longer this goes on, the smaller Ukraine will be when it’s over. Russia is not going to just quit and go home.


58 posted on 03/30/2024 6:50:22 AM PDT by FreedomForce
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To: tlozo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad

Russia appears to have closed their base in Cuba in 2002


59 posted on 03/30/2024 6:51:11 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: FreedomForce
Russia is not going to just quit and go home.

Right, because if tomorrow every western nation declared they would send massive military support to Ukraine, until the Russians leave, the Russians would fight forever? Okay

60 posted on 03/30/2024 6:53:35 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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