Posted on 04/02/2024 9:41:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Say goodbye to the trucking industry as we know it, and goodbye to the American economy, too.
You might have missed it on Good Friday — which you can be sure was no accident — when the Biden EPA released its new tailpipe rules for semi-trucks, but the new rules will destroy how we move goods around the country.
It seems like only two weeks ago [It was only two weeks ago, Steve —editor] that I told you about Presidentish Biden's new EPA regulations, coming into effect starting in 2027, that will force two-thirds of new car buyers into electric vehicles whether they want one or not. The tailpipe rules will effectively outlaw most gas and diesel engines by requiring a near-impossible 52% reduction in emissions.
On the Good Friday News Dump, the EPA announced similar restrictions on semi-trucks, again starting in just three years, and the changes will require one of those "fundamental transformations" the Left is so fond of.
SPOILER ALERT: "Fundamentally transform" means "we'll all be poorer."
NPR soft-pedaled industry complaints about the new rules "as unfeasible given current infrastructure." But the economic and technological reality is that it's going to take a lot more than thousands and thousands of new electric truck charging stations to get us from diesel power to Biden's fantasy of an all-electric trucking fleet.
"Zero-emission heavy-duty trucks exist today," NPR claims, "but are more expensive than traditional diesel vehicles. The EPA says that despite the upfront cost, over time the rules will save fleet owners money in reduced fuel and maintenance costs." That, however, is only a small (and misleading) part of the story.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
PepsiCo already has real world 80,000lb fully loaded data that shows for regional trucking a Tesla Semi is going to save them $300,000+ in fuel costs over their 5 year lifespan. A brand new 500 mile regional Tesla Semi is only $180,000 so they can just write off the old truck at zero resale value and still laugh all the way to the bank. Also that Tesla Semi is not more expensive than a class 8 ICE those run $150,000 to 200+ so it’s competitive today.
For long haul trucking no the Tesla doesn’t make sense although here again PepsiCo sent a 80,000lb truck 1600 miles on two days with team drivers that medium haul bordering long haul turf. For zero,zero,zero as in zero NOx,zero SOx, zero PM2.5 diesels will never get there due to physics. However Cummins and Clearflame both have modified MCCI engines that are 0/0/0 EPA certified. You must burn a soot free fuel such as natural gas or propane or hydrogen,or any of the light alcohols. Cummins is investing heavy in hydrogen as you get 14kg per min fuel rates and can store 1600 miles of H2 gas behind the cab in one linear foot of airspace in 8 one foot wide tanks. Clearflame is going the biofuels route where alcohols are used with zero CO2 as well since the plants got the CO2 from the air they already need any gram per mile limit as zero is well zero. Hydrogen electrolysis with nukes, surplus wind solar ,or hydroelectric power is also zero grams per mile from the start. CO2 is plant food but the dotgov says otherwise and the industry has to do what gov says or they go bankrupt. Americans are too old or soft to raise arms and NEVER will so adjust to the new paradigm or be wiped out fiscally.
As a mathematical note there is enough biomass waste generated every year in America to turn into liquid fuels for all the aircraft ,heavy trucks, railroads and marine use. Well over a billion tonnes not including biomass grown specifically for fuels like switchgrass, paddle cactus or agave on semi arid land not useful for anything else not even cattle. Add those in and you have 4 more billion tonnes per year.
Why? Look at what the light duty fleet uses vs everyone else. Then remember that 20% of drivers are using 48% of that 100 billion plus gallons per year. Look at the giant blue bar for light duty vehicles then open the last link and see that most of all trips are under 30 miles total per day. This is why the shift to EV is inevitable. The average urbanite who makes up 75% of the population only drives less than 30 miles per day. A five passenger sedan with a 325 mile range is ten days of driving meaning one a week at a supercharger supercharger for an hour or less. L2 chargers can do it in 5 hours overnight. Like a garage wall socket or a L2 pole at an condo or apartment. One two cable L2 pole supports 14 EVs per week on a single charge per week overnight. 15 of those support 210 EVs on the same cadence why 15? Because most small condo units will have 100 units in them and if each has two EV you only need 30 out of the 200 parking spaces to have a L2 pole between them. L2 poles run of 208v three phase already present in every condo and apartment building by code. You only need 15 poles for a 100 unit complex.
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10661
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10569
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10318
“Pepsi Confirms that They Have Gotten Over 500 Mile Runs Loads Up to the US Highway Max of 82,000 lbs”
Loads of real world data and for commerce operation not arm chair internet conjecture.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/10/pepsi-reveals-everything-about-the-tesla-semi-trucks.html
As a note to the above post 15 L2 charges only need 216KVa for the full load of 30 vehicles they will charge over night that’s one dedicated little green box transformer that we see every day next to the street in the neighborhood. On a 100 unit complex there will be one of those for every 4 units so already 25 on site adding one more is trivial in grid load the 12,200 V triple phase at the pole is 17.5 amps of current on open air pole to pole conductors rated in the thousands of amps. So much FUD so little facts and math. A small percentage of users vastly over use gasoline and that is the only argument against EV is how to cater to those 20% or the top 10% of users the and we is you don’t. Hybrids make sense for those long distances with alcohols or hydrogen when not if liquid hydrocarbons are too expensive to burn to the sky. For the one or two trips per year the other 75% make outside of a 300 mile range EV you rent a hybrid and be done with it.
Pepsico explained that it uses most of its 21 Tesla Semi electric trucks for deliveries within 100 miles with several stops. They operate for up to 12 hours a day.
Dejan Antunovic, electrification program manager at Pepsico, explained that three of the Tesla Semi trucks are dedicated to long-haul trucking, with routes that vary between 250 to 450 miles.
To support that, Tesla has been installing 750 kW Megachargers at Pepsico facilities. They enable charging to 80% capacity in less than 45 minutes.
Pepsico noted the difficulty of installing that much charging power at a facility and said that they will use what they learned from this experience to plan for future depots that will be electrified.
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Scroll down to the table with details about different EV Truck brands.
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How Much Does Tesla Semi Weigh Without A Load?
How Much Does A Semi Truck Weigh? Ultimate Guide (2022)
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Huh? I've often driven from SF to Reno via Sacramento, and back. About 100 miles from SF to Sacramento, and another 130 miles into Reno. Total 230 miles or so SF to Reno.
130 miles Reno to Sacramento via Hwy I-80. So yes, 170 mile range will get you there. Additional factor for EV semi-trucks is the use of regenerative braking which will give much added range for the downhill run to the Sacramento valley. I have an EV, and the used range going up the mountains is reclaimed into the batteries going back down.
The problem with EV long haul trucking, is that there are laws limiting freight trucks to 80,000 lbs including the weight of the truck. ICE trucks can haul much heavier cargo than their EV truck counterparts, due to the heavy weight of batteries in the EV truck. EV trucks would have to do multiple runs to equal the carried load of ICE trucks.
Tesla is currently using their EV semi-trucks to haul mega-pack batteries from Nevada to Fremont, California. No problems for Tesla to do many multiple runs, as they supply their own electricity for the trucks as well as manufacturing them.
I should have said Lathrop, not Fremont, in California near Stockton.
“Tesla is currently using their EV semi-trucks to haul mega-pack batteries from Nevada to Lathrop, California.”
The fact that the gubmint wants to force people into EVs tells me everything I need to know about them. I’ll pass.
They will go after the filling stations at some point.
Also,restrict private citizen air travel out of existence..
I don’t see what’s going to stop them from stealing it this time.
“The problem with EV long haul trucking, is that there are laws limiting freight trucks to 80,000 lbs including the weight of the truck. ICE trucks can haul much heavier cargo than their EV truck counterparts, due to the heavy weight of batteries in the EV truck. EV trucks would have to do multiple runs to equal the carried load of ICE trucks.”
The Tesla Semi weights 25,000 to 27,000 lbs this is known because they did a full load K rail test over 400+ miles since the tare weight of the trailer was known and they said it was at least 80,000lbs but could not be over 82,000 since it was not a permit load. The delta is 25-27Klb at 27K with a tare of 10,000lbs for an empty flat bed you have a net payload of 45,000 at the higher 82,000lb permit limit.
“The EPA estimates the typical weight of an unladen Class 8 tractor-trailer combination is on the order of 35,000 pounds while payloads typically max out at about 40,000 pounds. So while 80,000 pounds is the load limit for Class 8 trucks, well over 90% of the tractor-trailers weigh in at less than 73,000 pounds.”
As always the EPA emissions limits are technology agnostic you simply must hit the limit or less. In this case they are limiting not only NOx,SOx,PM.5 but adding in a CO2 limit in grams per mile. For long haul it makes more sense to use a soot free fuel to eliminate the NOx,SOx and PM2.5 Cummins and Clearflame both have 0/0/0 engines. To meet the CO2 limit should that hold up in court it likely will or Congress will pass a law right after the ruling to make it stand vs an EPA mandate either way eventually it will stand.
So to hit the CO2 limit per mile you would have to use a soot free fuel that’s not fossil based. Hydrogen electrolysis or steam methane reformer with carbon capture. Then use 300 bar tanks behind the sleeper cab for 1000+ mile ranges.
Any of the biofuels be it corn or sugarcane or sweet sorghum based alcohols, or raw biomass to syngas then FT synthetic methane , synthetic naptha, or any of the light alcohols FT can put out.
With large amounts of intermittent curtailment or nuclear power you can go power to X be it hydrogen with just salt water input or with a CO2 source go to any of the light alcohols,SNG,or light alkanes in the C5 to 10 range all of those are relatively soot free you would need 3 way catalysts still for NOx and CO plus organic HC emissions something the gas fueled MCCI engines don’t produce in huge quantities. If you have nitrogen plus power to H2 you can also go to NH3 liquid not for consumer use but trucking handles millions of lbs of it a year for farmers it’s well know,well handled in huge quantities.
EV trucks make sense for regional out and back runs so much so PepsiCo is gonna take it to the bank with fuel savings vs a diesel fleet. Power is so much cheaper than diesel on a cost per mile basis you could throw away the truck at end of life and still pocket over a hundred grand. If you have chargers at each end of a run you can then do 500 mile end to end runs where during the mandatory rest at each end you put 45 of charge in the megacharger standard is based off the cables and plugs cruise ships and cargo ships use for shore power and reach 10 megawatts in currents. 3 MW is the top end of the current MC standard that’s enough to put the 850kwh in 17 minutes if it was all at peak rate it’s not you slow down from 80% to 100%
For Megachargers Tesla is pairing them with Megapacks so the grid doesn’t have to output 3MW the pack does. It’s trickle charged from 480/3p all day and night while the trucks are out of the depot. At four trucks a day each an hour apart you need 3400kWh total or 141kva from the 480/3p over a 24 hour period a single small 300kva green box transformer will supply two megapacks that feed two MC for a 8 truck small depot. 16 for a small fleet of the other end has the same set up. Of course you could add 4 more overnight charging if the operation is not 24 hours a day.
It’s already known that electricity is cheaper than diesel and the upfront cost of a new Tesla semis is in the same range as a standard regional class 8 truck.
Payoffs to Hunter that he shared with the "Big Guy".
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