Posted on 04/20/2024 8:42:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
We are now roughly six and a half months from election day or election month, depending on your state’s election laws.
Today, we’ll focus on Joe Biden’s recent polling surge, as shown in the Real Clear Politics Poll Average of Trump vs Biden. You will note Trump is up over Biden by a whopping 0.4 percentage points. If we remove the possible outlier Rasmussen survey from the average, showing Trump at +8, Joe Biden would be ahead by 0.4. Republicans might be dismayed by this, and Democrats encouraged.
In January of this year, Trump was ahead of Biden by +4. Since then, the poll average has tightened. Is this real, or is there something else going on?
Before getting into some poll internals, let’s see how a few polls have changed since the beginning of 2024. A good one to start with is Emerson.
1/26 Trump +1
2/13 Trump +1
3/05 Biden +2
4/02 Trump +1
4/16 Trump +3
Next, let’s look at the Economist/YouGov Poll.
1/07 Tie
1/14 Biden +1
1/21 Trump +1
1/28 Biden +1
2/04 Trump +1
2/11 Tie
2/18 Trump +1
2/25 Tie
3/03 Trump +2
3/10 Trump +2
Finally, let’s look at the Quinnipiac Poll.
1/25 Biden +6
2/15 Biden +4
3/21 Biden +3
Looking at the poll trend rather than the chatter, you might conclude that Trump was slowly gaining strength. But the RCP polling average contains different surveys in different combinations, some of which shouldn’t be included.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The Reuters poll is all over the map on results and highly inconsistent regarding the number of voters included from poll to poll. Here are the numbers.
1/03 Tie 4677 registered voters
1/22 Trump +5 1028 registered voters
3/07 Biden +2 3356 registered voters
4/03 Biden +4 833 registered voters
This doesn’t make their top-line numbers wrong, just suspect.
Polling organizations are supposed to be ethical, unbiased, and consistent in their methodology. The truth is the way a poll is conducted can significantly affect the results.
It doesn’t matter what the polls show. What matters is doing everything each of us possibly can to get the vote out and to monitor illegal voting. This includes documenting fraud when we see it.
The only polls that I take remotely seriously are the ones that come out a week or so before the election. The reason? The election will verify their accuracy - assuming it’s not stolen like the last one.
public polls don’t mean crap. some are cooked, some are lied to..
watch what the campaigns are doing. Trump is going to Chick-fil-a in a blue area.. Briben is sending his wife to a solid blue state while getting snubbed himself in a blue city gas station..
that tells me more about what is happening than public polling.
polling also does not account for any cheating that will take place.
Polls are like fantasy football.
Fun for fans to talk about, lots of money being bet, but meaningless when the refs throw the game in the 4th quarter.
It is probably not for real and there is a whole lot going on.
Not one mention of margin of error. Pretty clear writer has no understanding of what the term means. Without such an understanding, all analysis is about as valid as using a yardstick as a micrometer.
Polls don’t matter at all. The fraud will be rampant and blatant. Who’s going to stop them? Prove all the fraud you want. It won’t change anything and they all know it. Mail in voting and no ID for illegals voting has lead to a permanent democrat tyranny.
With the Communist medea anyting is possible...
That's why the NFL is now "scripted".
Of course not. None of these polls 1) give you the questions asked for the “answers” and 2) properly lay out the numbers and statistics.
These are therefore called: PUSH polls to push a narrative. Joey Bags Xiden should be in a tertiary care nursing facility with an Alzheimers/Vascular Dementia wing attache to matriculate over when the time really comes. He is nearly at that stage in reality. Hopped up selective public statements do not exposed the other 20 hours a day he is falling apart. He was when he “ran” from the basement in 2020.
It’s going to be a squeaker. Trump must win Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Exactly. The Rats sole the last election and got away with it. You can safely bet the farm that they will try again.
Excellent pun— hopefully intended.
Medea in Greek mythology, is the daughter of King Aeëtes of Colchis. In mythical story of Jason and the Argonauts, she helps Jason search for the Golden Fleece. Later Medea marries Jason, but a kills his children and his other bride. Medea is a sorceress in other words- a pagan sorceress.
Just like today’s “Media”!
With the Communist medea anyting is possible...
In 2020, when Pres. Trump’s campaign was visible all over the map and Pres. Biden’s campaign was hunkered down in the basement, the polls were all for Pres. Biden.
It didn’t make sense.
So I went to see what the wise guys were predicting.
It was Biden all the way.
So here is where the wise guys are at now:
https://electionbettingodds.com
Biden up by 2%.
In 2020, Trump was holding electrifying rallies with 5,000 to 40,000 people attending. He did several a week all over the country.
Biden held a few “rallies” with people in their spread-out six foot white circles or in their scattered cars.
Basically my view as well. What happens after this election is stolen will be one of the most important periods of time in this country’s history and also future.
I have zero doubts that Biden will end up the “winner.” None.
Biden is winning on all sorts of fronts.
He has his opponent literally imprisoned in a courtroom.
The only opposition member with any real power - Mike Johnson - is now on his side.
His controllers - the Jewish investment gangsters Fink and Soros - are upset with his coddling of the Michigan based Islamist terrorists, but not enough to make them start writing big checks to Lara Trump at the RNC.
Gas spiked what, 15% in the last week or so? Yesterday it was $5.70 on the coast here on the central coast of California. Normally that would set off firestorms of screaming.
Nope. All par for the course now. Joe can destroy anything, and he gets away with it.
Yup, Biden is winning. The “Republicans” in Congress are falling all over themselves to pass his bills. Gotta be a lotta cash riding on the whole thing.
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