Something bright enough to be confused as an incoming ballistic missile It's not the brightness that is a problem. Only a few countries could see such a meteor on their radars anyway. The issue is confusing the explosion, whether on the ground or as is much more likely high in the atmosphere, with a nuclear explosion. Only a very few countries, and certainly not all those with their own nukes, could quicly tell the difference between a nuke and one of these larger meteors (I say meteors, because we are speaking of the thing as it enters the atmosphere, before then it's a meteoroid, after, if it survives, it's a meteorite). A nation like Pakistan, or Israel, might mistake one for a nuke and cut loose against it's enemies.
Hmm maybe we could steer one over the Med just offshore from Israel, or over the Negev somewhere. No more problem with Iraq, probably no more Iraq, or at least no more Baghdad, they should leave Basra in the south and Mosul in the North alone. That's where all the oil is anyway. Then Basra province can become part of Kuwait, and the north can become some kind of Turkish protectorate, as it was (as was most all of the Arab world), before WW-I.
As you said, It all goes back to this article where there was concern about incoming rocks. Certain people (I was one of them) questioned the 30 times a year figure quoted in the article.
My criteria in the little list I built up was simply a fireball reported in the media. I'll grant that it is all subjective, but it appears that 30/year is a very low figure.
I'll say again, it was only the number that spurred me into this, not the question of mistaking it for nukes.
http://www.austin360.com/aas/news/ap/ap_story.html/National/AP.V0103.AP-Asteroid-Danger.html
Asteroid Explosions Concern Military
By PAUL RECER
AP Science Writer
WASHINGTON (AP)--Asteroids regularly explode over the Earth with the intensity of a nuclear bomb and there is a chance the explosions could be mistaken for a nuclear attack, possibly triggering an atomic war, an Air Force general said Thursday.
At least 30 times a year, a space rock measuring a few yards across slashes into the atmosphere and explodes, releasing energy equal to that of an atomic bomb, Air Force Brig. Gen. Simon P. Worden told members of a House Science subcommittee.
Worden, deputy director for operations of the U.S. Strategic Command, said the United States has satellite instruments that determine within a minute if the explosion is a nuclear weapon or a natural explosion from an asteroid.
But no one else has such technology, he said, and without it, some countries could conclude the explosions came from a nuclear bomb and could launch an atomic attack against an enemy.
For instance, Worden said Pakistan and India, both of which have the atomic bomb, were at full alert in August, poised for war.
Not far away, a few weeks before, Worden said, U.S. satellites detected over the Mediterranean an atmospheric flash that indicated ``an energy release comparable to the Hiroshima burst.'' Air Force instruments quickly determined it was caused by an asteroid 15 feet to 30 feet wide.
``Had you been situated on a vessel directly underneath, the intensely bright flash would have been followed by a shock wave that would have rattled the entire ship, and possibly caused minor damage,'' Worden said in his testimony.
The explosion received little or no notice, the general said, but it possibly could have caused a major human conflict had it occurred over India or Pakistan while those countries were on high alert.
``The resulting panic in the nuclear-armed and hair-triggered opposing forces could have been the spark that ignited a nuclear horror we have avoided for over a half-century,'' he said.
Worden said the Air Force's early warning satellites in 1996 detected an asteroid burst over Greenland that released energy equal to about 100,000 tons of explosives. He said similar events are thought to have occurred in 1908 over Siberia, in the 1940s over Central Asia and over the Amazon basin in the 1930s.
``Had any of these struck over a populated area, thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands might have perished,'' he said.
Worden said the current generation of early warning satellites do a good job of detecting asteroid bursts in the atmosphere and that new equipment will be even better. He said the Air Force is working on an asteroid alert program that would quickly send information from the satellites to interested nations.
He said the Air Force is studying the establishment of what he called a Natural Impact Warning Clearinghouse that would be part of the North American Aerospace Defense Command communications center in Cheyenne Mountain near Colorado Springs, Colo.
NASA is in the midst of a 10-year program to find and assess of every asteroid one kilometer (0.6 miles) or more in size that could pass close to the Earth and might pose a danger to the planet.
Such asteroids or comets are called near earth objects. If an asteroid 1 kilometer in size struck the planet it could wipe out whole countries. An asteroid 1 mile across could snuff out civilizations, while one that is 3 miles across could cause human extinction, experts say.
Edward Weiler, head of NASA's office of space science, told the House committee that his agency has detected 619 near earth objects and is finding about 100 new ones each year. None poses a danger to the Earth.
One kilometer asteroids are relatively rare, but Worden and others said that smaller asteroids also can be destructive. For instance, if an asteroid the size of a cruise ship smashed into the ocean it could cause huge waves, called tsunamis, capable of drowning coastal cities on two continents.
Worden called for a system of instruments and telescopes on land and in space that could scan the sky to find asteroids down to the size of 300 feet. He said telescopes and instruments weighing less than 150 pounds could easily be launched to establish an observing network.
BTW, Gen Worden is one of the mavericks of the USAF, interested in his publicity to a very high degree.