Well ... I don't think she cares what Bush's numbers are. I think she is arrogant and greedy enough that she will try to destroy Bush's numbers while making a run for the WH.
I'm fairly confident she will not win in 2004 - no matter what she does.
However, 2008 will be another matter altogether. Unless the GOP can come up with a dynamite candidate, and the GOP also does terrible in the 2006 election, then she might have a chance in 2008.
This all does depend on Bush. He could survive another terrorist attack, or a setback in Iraq or North Korea. Because most people really believe that he is doing the best he can to protect us, and not to protect his political career.
It would be even clearer if he got re-elected in 2004. Then he wouldn't have any re-election to think about. If he is still popular then, he could pick his successor, even if it wasn't his VP. Frist, Condi, even Jeb-
But it's his performance that matters, and I have faith in him.