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While there is no real scientific way to determine the date of Jesus's birth, there is ample reason to believe that it could indeed have occurred on Dec. 25th...
Firstly, Luke mentions (1:26) that "in the sixth month" the angel Gabriel visited Mary to tell her she was going to bear a son. The sixth month of the old Hebrew calendar could have been right around April 1st (this is bolstered by the fact that Elizabeth, her cousin, was about 6 months pregnant with John who was conceived, according the Scripture, sometime in the autumn of the previous year.
Secondly, Joseph and Mary were traveling to Bethlehem to be counted in the census for tax purposes...and, since they were under Roman rule, it would make logistical sense that the Roman government would require the census to begin the first month of the Roman calendar.
Thirdly, there is the astronomical data that puts the star of Bethlehem (in the constellation of Aries) at its peak in the winter.
I have heard various accounts of evidence that Christ had to be born in the spring as that was when shepherds would be watching their flocks at night as lambs would be born in the early spring...however, the Bible does not specify exactly when they came to the manger. I reason it could have been late February or early March--when the lambs are usually born.
Luke 2:19 But Mary treasured up all these things and pondered them in her heart.
I have always presumed that this was Luke's way of attributing his birth narrative to Mary. After all how would Luke know what Mary treasured up or pondered upon if she had not told him herself?