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There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy. The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated earlier this month when President Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the U.S. and China over technology. In...

Today's Quotefall Puzzle features a quote by Milton Friedman. Click puzzle (or click here) for full size rendition, then use your browser's print command to print puzzle. Milton Friedman is the one of the most popular economist of the 20th Century among constitutionalists. All hints, along with the answer, are provided in the first reply comment below, using filtered font to prevent accidental spoilers. Please refrain from disclosing the full answer in comments to prevent spoilers.To solve the puzzle: Enter the letters in the top half (letter columns) of the puzzle into the white squares on the bottom half (answer grid) belowEach...

So the annexation of Greenland has hit a snag. That’s okay. We can go back to having western Canada back on the top of the acquisition list. Meanwhile, I don’t understand what the left and the media (but I repeat. . .) have their knickers all in a bunch because Trump claimed to be “the chosen one.” Didn’t they call Obama “The One”? At least Trump didn’t choose himself, unlike Mr. “We-Are-The-One-We’ve-Been-Waiting For.” What?

While speaking to reporters on Friday, President Trump stated that he has “the absolute right” to order American businesses not to do business with China. Trump said, “Well, in 1977, we had an act passed, a national emergency act. I have the absolute right to do that. We’ll see how that goes, but I have the absolute right.”

That didn't take long. A former Obama adviser set the stage for a potentially nasty confirmation fight in the Senate next year within an hour of the Supreme Court announcing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg recently completed three weeks of radiation treatment after doctors found a localized cancerous tumor on her pancreas. "If there is a SCOTUS vacancy next year and @senatemajldr carries through on his extraordinary promise to fill it-despite his own previous precedent in blocking Garland-it will tear this country apart," David Axelrod said in a tweet Friday afternoon.

President Donald Trump wished Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg well after learning that she has went through treatment for a cancerous tumor on her pancreas. The president said that Ginsburg, 86, is “strong” and “very tough” while speaking to reporters outside the White House on his way to leave for the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in France. “I hope she does really well. And our thoughts and prayers are with her,” Trump said. “I’m hoping she’s going to be fine,” he continued. “She’s pulled through a lot. She’s strong. Very tough. We wish her well.” On Friday it...

Today’s Cryptogram BDKGDS OWG WBM DSNSA LBCS B LUMEBPS WBM DSNSA EAUSC BDKEWUDJ DSO. –BDGDKLGZM You can find this little fun word game, to combat early dementia and senility in us baby boomers, in several daily publications. The way it works is a letter stands for another letter. For example: AXYDLBAAXR is LONGFELLOW (does not apply to today's cryptogram). Beware, the game is very addictive. If this is your first time, don't be intimidated. PLEASE DO NOT post the answer in general comments, but DO post your time and any tips you might give the group on how you solve...

In the weeks since a deadly mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, Latino lawmakers have come forward publicly to denounce Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for his language that they say is "dangerous" for the state's immigrant communities. Democratic members of the El Paso legislative delegation and the Mexican American Legislative Caucus condemned Abbott’s tweet that said the state had to “provide and fund public education for illegal immigrants." TWEET: "5 liberals on the Supreme Court ruled that Texas had to provide and fund public education for illegal immigrants. The next decade, in Texas v. U. S., Federal courts rejected...

The sack of Rome, the Eternal City, by Alaric and his Goths occurred on this date, August 24, in anno Domini 410. This catastrophic event, caused as much by the inept diplomacy of the Romans as by the intrepidity of Alaric, was a major turning-point in history that shook the Roman Empire to its very core. Indeed, this event was such a profound shock that it inspired Augustine of Hippo to write his greatest and most influential work, The City of God, as a response. Writing later in a work called Retractiones, Augustine records the event and the immediate reaction...

..The people of Northern Ireland have nothing to fear from Britain leaving the European Union, UK Independence Party (Ukip) leader Nigel Farage has said. The MEP was in Belfast yesterday to encourage support for the campaign to leave the EU after the June 23rd referendum. ... On Irish Border arrangements in event of Brexit, Mr Farage said he saw no reason why soft Border arrangements with the North could not continue.

What could better illustrate the floundering chaos of the Democratic Party than a new national poll showing Joe Biden as the clear front-runner? The party's got nothing else besides this fumbling faux pas factory. You know the base doesn't want Biden, yet he's leading the party's polls. Sen. Kamala Harris decided to challenge Biden in the first round of Democratic presidential primary debates in June, and for a second it appeared to work, as her poll numbers surged, largely at Biden's expense. But the latest CNN survey shows Harris dropping by 12 points to just 5 percent support and Biden...

...“We just heard from NASCAR on a number of gun-related ads and unfortunately, due to a gradual shift in NASCAR’s position on guns, these ads must be edited/changed—especially those that are depicted as assault-style rifles/sniper rifles. NASCAR is still open to some of the less controversial gun accessories, concealed carry, or classes.” Consider this, even if your audience was split 50-50 as to the issue of the Second Amendment, why would you intentionally alienate half of your base? Let’s take it to an extreme. What organization wants to intentionally anger even 10 percent of its base? I am sure much...

Joe Biden was on the campaign trail in New Hampshire Friday, which means that the potential for a new gaffe to add to his growing repertoire was high.While speaking at a health care town hall at Dartmouth College in Hanover, the Democratic front-runner did not disappoint.Biden, who is considered the Democrats' most electable candidate, hit his first snag while trying to describe his healthcare plan: “For folks in the working class that are below 400,  they will, in fact, increase their premiums,” he stammered, adding quickly,  "excuse me, will increase the generosity of the premium tax cut that they now...

Today’s Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends) Should we change their names to CIANN and MSFBI? – After the news-fakers over at CNN added disgraced serial liar Andrew McCabe to its roster of paid contributors on Friday, the Daily Caller News Foundation notes that CNN and MSNBC now employ no fewer than 15 former employees of the myriad U.S. intelligence agencies. That’s right: 15. Amazingly enough, America’s national Teenage Drama Queen, James Comey, is not among them. But he and McCabe were out on the CIANN airwaves performing as your basic Abbott and Costello tag team of Clintonian non-denial...

Many of the millions of people who shop on Amazon.com see it as if it were an American big-box store, a retailer with goods deemed safe enough for customers. In practice, Amazon has increasingly evolved like a flea market. It exercises limited oversight over items listed by millions of third-party sellers, many of them anonymous, many in China, some offering scant information.

The Weekly Gardening Thread is a weekly gathering of folks that love soil, seeds and plants of all kinds. From complete newbies that are looking to start that first potted plant, to gardeners with some acreage, to Master Gardener level and beyond, we would love to hear from you. If you have specific question about a plant/problem you are having, please remember to state the Growing Zone where you are located. This thread is non-political, although you will find that most here are conservative folks. No matter what, you won’t be flamed and the only dumb question is the one...

“Political power, properly so called, is merely the organized power of one class for oppressing another.” - Karl Marx, The Communist Manifesto Controversy is swirling around an art event in Grand Rapids. An art festival is bringing a Down’s syndrome drag show from Britain, called Drag Syndrome, to town. The controversy isn’t aimed at Daniel Vais the London-based group’s founder and artistic director. Nor is it aimed at DisArt, the group organizing their Grand Rapids appearance but rather at Peter Meijer, the owner of the venue who has decided he doesn’t wish to make his establishment available for this...

This is important because a biliary stent is only installed if a tumor was large enough to cause blockage of the bile duct from the liver to the intestine. It is typically performed in cases where the patient has cancer on the duct itself and often predicates liver cancer. Again the stent is typically only used in advanced cases and often only surgery is done for early cases:

Is Democrat on Democrat shade is going mainstream? Probably not, but the Bill Maher/Rashida Tlaib feud is just the latest high-profile example of division within the ranks of the left, with potential ramifications involving the long-term loyalties of Jewish voters. Have Jewish liberals, who count among their rank’s notable Americans including Sarah Silverman, Bette Midler, Seth Rogan, Jon Stewart and so many other outwardly anti-Trump individuals, allowed the blind hatred they feel over the president, who has been a great ally to Israel and American Jews, to take precedence over their religious values? The issue inflaming tensions between Maher and...