Free Republic

Contrary to what many political pundits, including this one, thought would happen as soon as Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, the former president has maintained a slim but steady polling lead over President Joe Biden. As of today, the RCP Average has Trump with a 1.1% overall advantage, with Quinnipiac being the only May poll showing Biden leading, albeit by a mere 1%. By contrast, Biden enjoyed a 5.6% advantage this time in 2020, an election in which Trump never actually took the average polling lead.Still, are there signs that Trump's lead might be softer than we think?...

There's been a lot of talk among Republicans about the effect a big primary field might have on the 2024 presidential nomination race. The short version is that a big field is thought to benefit former President Donald Trump, who, as in 2016, would not have to win a majority of votes to win — a plurality, and not even a big one, would be enough. On the other hand, a small field, especially a one-on-one matchup with another candidate, say Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), might allow the challenger to defeat Trump. But now, a new poll suggests some of...

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents prefer Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over former President Trump to be the GOP presidential nominee in 2024, according to a new poll released Friday. The survey, conducted by YouGov, found that 42 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would prefer DeSantis over Trump to run in 2024. Just 35 percent said they would prefer Trump over DeSantis. Respondents who considered themselves “strong Republicans” were more likely to support a third presidential run for Trump (45 percent) over the Florida governor, who won his reelection campaign on Tuesday handily. Forty-three percent of “strong Republicans” said...

...our model shows more growth from the Rubio and Cruz plans than the Trump plan, even though Trump proposed a larger cut: While Donald Trump largely opted for big rate reductions across the board, Rubio and Cruz made improvements to the structure of taxes, while cutting taxes by less overall. Senators Rubio and Cruz both put thought into the nature of the taxes that businesses pay. They noticed that the current way businesses are asked to calculate taxes creates a bias in the code. When a business builds something new, like, say, a new industrial lathe, that decision actually has...