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On 9 February 2017, European Space Agency astronaut Thomas Pesquet, a member of the Expedition 50 crew, captured a winter landscape image from the International Space Station. It was of the Dnipro River. The photograph showed a great, coursing white snake that reminded Pesquet of a Japanese ‘Hokusai painting’. The white was ice and it explains why Russian forces on the Dnipro right bank now face a ‘difficult situation’, as described by General Sergei Surovikin, the recently appointed operational commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. In winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of sub-zero temperatures. A...

LONDON — Lines at neighboring borders and protests are just some of the scenes in Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s call for partial military mobilization. Last week, Putin ordered up to 300,000 Russians to serve in the invasion of Ukraine that began in February. Since then, thousands of citizens have fled the country to bordering nations, including Georgia and Mongolia. A satellite image of the Russia-Georgia border taken on Tuesday shows a multitude of cars and people waiting at the crossing. According to Russian state news outlet Tass, more than 5,000 cars had created the traffic jam, which was up...

Russia has just finished a Potemkin referendum conducted in the illegally occupied Ukrainian oblasts (provinces) of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson (see Vladimir Putin to Address Russia; Annexation of Ukraine Provinces and Mobilization Seem to Be on the Table). The “voting” began on September 23, and the question is whether those provinces wish to be annexed to Russia.There are complicating factors. All four oblasts are on the front line of a war between Putin’s invading army and the armed forces of Ukraine. Many, if not most, of the residents, are refugees. The voting began within 48 hours after the announcement....

HAS ANYONE HEARD THIS REPORT? PARTIAL TRANSCRIPT: “PUTIN LEFT MOSCOW TO HIS SECRET PALACE NEAR LAKE VALDI BETWEEN MOSCOW & ST PETERBURG WHEN RUSSIA & RUSSIA’S ADMINISTTATION WAS IN SUCH A MESS! LEAVING HIS COUNTRY WITHOUT A LEADER WHHILE HIS COUNTRY WAS ON FIRE & CITIZENS WERE WAITING FOR A SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS. PRO-PUTIN POLITICAL OFFICIALS STATED THAT THE RUSSIAN LEADER WENT TO THE LUXURY COMPLEX TO REST HIS BODY AND SOUL.”

The “partial mobilization” of Russian men to fight in Putin’s War in Ukraine is shaping up pretty much the fiasco we thought it would be (see Vladimir Putin to Address Russia; Annexation of Ukraine Provinces and Mobilization Seem to Be on the Table). It is equal parts black comedy, political thriller, and tragedy. But, don’t worry, the comedic and thriller elements will go away very soon. The war in Ukraine has left Russia facing a military personnel crisis. About 75% of Russia’s regular ground forces participated in the opening act of the Special Military Operation (SMO). These were reinforced by...