Free Republic

Matters went from bad to worse as the stock market suffered its worst loss of 2008, already a year that hadn't been shaping up as a highlight for investors. Stocks reeled and long-dated Treasurys jumped following a fresh round of hefty write-downs by banks and signs that bond insurers' credit ratings may be slashed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 306.95 points Thursday, down 2.5%, at 12159.21. All 30 of its components ended lower. The Russell 2000 was off 2.8%, or 19.34 points, at 680.57. The small-stock indicator, which includes many companies that rely heavily on a robust U.S. economy,...

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation urged Thursday that mortgage servicers should force mortgage pools to reduce the long term interest rate at which subprime mortgages refix after the first few years, fixing the rate instead at the initial “teaser” rate. I trust no Bear’s Lair reader is remotely surprised at this development; it is typical of the soft-option-mania that has infested financial thought in the last decade. On the idea itself, to misquote Elizabeth Barrett Browning (who deserves to be misquoted) “How do I hate thee? Let me count the ways…” Once upon a time, governments...

After pretending an unwonted firmness for a few weeks, the central banks in both Britain and the United States caved this week, accepting financial sector bailouts and in the Fed’s case lowering interest rates. Moral hazard has thus been made immoral certainty; financial market participants who indulge in grossly speculative activity can be “highly confident” (in the words of the old Drexel Burnham commitment letters) that they will be bailed out by the public sector, i.e. ultimately by the taxpayer. Rarely has there been such an obvious subsidy of the overpaid by the beleaguered. It raises the question: what if...

The credit bubble is just starting to unwind, a credit-derivative insider says. And while U.S. borrowers are being blamed for the mess, they were really just pawns in a global game. Jon Markman Satyajit Das is laughing. It appears I have said something very funny, but I have no idea what it was. My only clue is that the laugh sounds somewhat pitying. One of the world's leading experts on credit derivatives (financial instruments that transfer credit risk from one party to another), Das is the author of a 4,200-page reference work on the subject, among a half-dozen other tomes....

When the market is as volatile and dangerous as it is now, you should consider a technique that I borrow from the world of professional chess playing. The key to playing a good game of chess at “master” levels is to “accumulate small advantages.” A small advantage in chess might mean having a better protected king or controlling an open file with a rook. The same strategy applies in investing but a small advantage here might mean top management is buying shares or Warren Buffett owns the stock. If you accumulate enough of these advantages you have a tangible edge....

Martin Hutchinson is the author of "Great Conservatives" (Academica Press, 2005) -- details can be found on the Web site www.greatconservatives.com The high tide of globalization, free trade and capitalism, which had seemed so irresistible in the 1990s, appears to be receding, even as the world economy continues to expand. In country after country, new economic experiments are being tried which have the effect of increasing the state’s control over economic matters. Not just a general swing to the center-left in world politics, this is in some respects a springtime for Stalin, and a proof that his dream of controlling...

Following sharp decline yesterday and poor reports and forecasts from Intel, Yahoo, and IBM (revenue miss). If it's any consolation, gold bullion is down to match.

There are lots of bearish sentiment around. There are no lacks of bulls either. The stock market all around the world on the basis of constant dollar did pick in late eighties led by that of Japan. It is a mega bull cycle that started with the Roman Empire. Since then world never really saw a long term bull market. The market may have finally started topping out in that 2500 year cycle. But such mega cycles take an enormous time to top out. For a cycle that started 2500 years back, it is prudent to assume that it will...

Following today's Supreme Court decision and a great selling day on Wall Street, it may be time to sell your stocks soon and go cash only for awhile. I think there is a high probability of an intermediate down trend occurring in the near future, a leg down in the general market. Here are the reasons why I think it's time to sell: 1. Last week Thursday near market close, investment funds or insiders traded a large chunk. They all moved at the same time. Here is a brief list of what happened on 06/18/2005 at market close: MSFT (Microsoft)...

Home  l  Broadcast  l  Market Monitor  l  Top 10  l  Storm Watch  l  Sitemap  l  About Us Today's WrapUp by Tim W. Wood 08.13.2004  Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Archive THE DOW REPORT The Global Bear I have maintained that according to Dow theory, the rally out of the October 2002 low has been a giant “Secondary Reaction?which will likely serve to separate Phase I from Phase II of this great bear market. The sad thing is that few truly realize or believe that we are actually in a bear market. As you should all know from previous writings,...

I'm a big Bob Brinker fan, but missed him this weekend. Did anyone hear him? Does he think the secular bear has raised its head, or are we in a correction, a buying opportunity? news home | top | world | intl | natl | op | pol | govt | business | tech | sci | entertain | sports | health | odd | sources AP • Reuters • New York Times • CBS • MSNBC • USA TODAY • FOX News • Poll • Photos Stocks Hit 2004 Lows on Iraq, Oil Prices Email this story May 17,...

<p>Murder in America has fallen into a historic slump, and that's a fact more people can live with. Murder rates have dropped to levels not seen since the mid-1960s, punctuating the end of a bloody 20th century where more than twice as many died in American homicides as U.S. troops did in wars.</p>

[AD-MUNCHED]<!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>  To print: Select File and Then Print in your browser pull-down menus. Back to story  THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH Strategist lists top silver explorersMetal trails gold, but small miners finding success By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.comLast Update: 11:27 AM ET Jan. 10, 2003 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The silver story will capture the imagination of American investors -- just not right away, says an authority on asset allocation and quantitative analysis. The slightly precious metal's price can't seem to keep track with gold these days. Earlier this week, when the euro carved a three-year high out of the hide of...

Friday marked the 1001st day since the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched its all-time high at 11908.50 on Jan. 14, 2000. 1,001 days was the precise duration of the bear market that followed the peak of Sept. 7, 1929 — which included the Great Crash and ushered in the Great Depression. Friday night began — dare I say it — 1,001 bearabian nights, and Monday morning will mark what will be then the longest bear market in history. Or maybe the lows made on Thursday will be The Bottom, at only 1000 days. That will leave the great bear market...

America’s retail investors made record withdrawals from stockmarket mutual funds during July, as shares hit four-year lows, according to data released this week. The sell-off has been followed by a sharp rally, leading some to argue that it signalled the end of the bear market. Is the worst over? AMERICA has its public to thank for the great bull market of the 1990s. It was America’s workers who boosted productivity to historical highs and individual investors, piling into stockmarkets with unprecedented enthusiasm, who drove share prices ever higher. And when the going got tough, small investors did not panic. As...

Oh, woe is the stock market! As I write this on July 21, 2002, the Dow stands at 8019, the lowest level since 1997. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are at similar, pitiful levels. There’s more. Richard Grasso, chairman of the New York Stock Exchange said today, "Mondays following Friday declines have always been difficult and I suspect tomorrow will be no different." What’s going on? The first thing to remember is that the precipitous market drop is deeply significant to the country, and not just to investors. The Dow and other U.S. stock markets represent the present and expected...

Stocks remained sharply lower Monday afternoon as Pfizer's (PFE:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) takeover of Pharmacia (PHA:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) wasn't enough to quell investor paranoia about corporate accounting. A statement from President Bush that the economy was fundamentally strong wasn't helping either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 296 points, or 3.4%, to 8389, while the Nasdaq was falling 25 points, or 1.8%, to 1349. The S&P 500 was behind by 30 points, or 3.3%, to 891, a level it hasn't seen since July 1997.Worries about the financial...

<p>By late 1981, economists were sure that the recession that had begun in July was over. Forecasters surveyed by BusinessWeek thought the economy would grow nearly 3% in 1982. Wrong. The economy actually shrank more than 1% that year.</p> <p>Could the conventional wisdom be wrong again? Sure. Despite a spate of favorable data, pessimists argue that the U.S. faces a long period of slow growth--or even a "double-dip" recession. They worry that the mild 2001 downturn left in place the imbalances built up during the late 1990s. "The recession was too shallow to create the efficiencies that a longer, deeper recession would have," says Donald H. Straszheim, president of Straszheim Global Advisors in Westwood, Calif.</p>