Articles Posted by Kaiser8408a
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Not so Sweet Home Chicago! After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. To get a sense of just how low, the last two times it printed here was during the peak of the covid and global financial crises… … which seems to suggest that at least according to Chicago-based purchasing managers, the economy is in a depression....
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With the terrible mortgage applications index from Wednedsay, we are seeing US pending home sales crashiing. As Joe Biden handles the economy his way. After an unexpected jump in March, pending home sales were expected to drop 1.0% MoM in April as mortgage rates pushed back above 7.00% and stayed there. Well, the analysts had the direction right but magnitude was way off as pending home sales plunged 7.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Feb 2021 (and below the lowest estimate), leaving sales down 0.7% YoY… Source: Bloomberg This is the 29th straight month of YoY declines for non-seasonally-adjusted...
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What I like about Biden’s economy … nothing. Most of Biden’s economic growth came from Trump’s spending and Fed monetary policy from the Covid shutdown of 2020. What was until recently a “red-hot” economy, with the US reportedly growing at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3 and 3.4% in Q4 2024, has suddenly and dramatically downshifted, and according to the latest GDP data released from Biden’s BEA, Q1 GDP was revised downward from 1.6% to just 1.3% (1.250% to be specific), which was the lowest GDP since the mini-recession of Q2 when GDP declined for 2 quarters in a...
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From Mike Shedlock (Mish). It’s a perfect time to do something really stupid, like offering zero percent down payments on mortgages. Case-Shiller national and 10-city indexes via St. Louis Fed, OER, CPI, and Rent from the BLS Perfectly Stupid Timing Morningstar reports One of the Biggest U.S. Lenders is Offering 0%-Down-Payment Mortgages for First-Time Home Buyers. Home buyers will be able to buy a home without putting any money down under a new program launched by United Wholesale Mortgage, one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders. The Pontiac, Mich.-based company’s new program will be available to first-time home buyers and...
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The thrill is gone …from the US mortgage market. Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 24, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and...
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rica’s 20 largest cities rose for the 13th straight month in March (according to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic – Case Shiller – data today), up 0.33% (more than the expected 0.3%) with the 0.61% MoM gain In Febriary revised down to +0.55% MoM. Source: Bloomberg This pushed the price up 7.38% YoY – the fastest rise since October 2022
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I saw former President Obama criticizing former President Trump for not passing “transformative” changes. That is, Trump didn’t sign any Obama-like transformative changes (like Obamacare). Truimp did try to slow down the damage done by Obama and his transformative agenda (e.g., open borders, wealth redistritution, green energy) that Biden has attempted to continue. As we approach the party conventions and Presidential election of 2024, we saw the Economic Surprise Index (ESI) in May decline to -0.126. Coupled with Biden’s negative buying conditions for housing (higher mortgage rates and soaring house prices), Obama’s Jacobian transformative economic fantasty is on thin ice....
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Biden, talking to CNN’s Erin Burnett, made light of America’s struggles with Bidenflation (higher home prices, higher mortgage rates, higher energy and food costs, higher …) caliously saying that “they can afford it.” Well Joe, your big donors (the top 0.5% can afford it! But not the middle class that you have abandoned. In fact, much of America has drained their savings and run up massive debt to cope with your terrible economic policies. The amount of credit card debt across the US has hit a new record high of $1.337 trillion (even though it appears to have finally hit...
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Biden and Bidenomics is disastrous for the middle class and low wage workers. Food and housing prices through the roof, and now we have mortgage purchase demand declining -57% under Biden. Mortgage applications increased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 3, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted...
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Lightning strikes TWICE! One year after regional banks crashed and burned due to the combination of tumbling debt/treasury prices coupled with cratering commercial real estate loans, fears about the current state of Commercial Real Estate – where most offices still see tenants at best 3 to 4 days a week and are literally burning through rents – appear long forgotten. Is that sensible? For one answer, we turned to the latest report from Goldman’s REIT/CRE expert Chandhi Luthra who has published a visual assessment of the state of CRE in 2024 in terms of loan maturities, 2023 extensions, and property...
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Perhaps Fed Chair Jerome Powell was listening to Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy!” Because The Fed went crazy with money printing to counteract the shutdown of the US economy in 2020. The US jobs market peaked in February 2020 under Trump at 152,309,000. Then COVID struck in March 2020 and the US economy lost almost 10 million jobs by December 2020. But when the fear ebbed and the economy opened back up, it took until June 2022 to recover the lost jobs. But since June 2022, the US economy has added almost 6 million jobs (many are part-time jobs and taken...
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Stop! Stop! Stop! … all the printing! These people have to be stopped! We are talking about the nation’s unhinged monetary politburo domiciled in the Eccles Building (The Federal Reserve), of course. It is bad enough that their relentless inflation of financial assets has showered the 1% with untold trillions of windfall gains, but their ultimate crime is that they lured the nation’s elected politician into a veritable fiscal trance. Consequently, future generations will be lugging the service costs on insuperable public debts for years to come. For more than two decades these foolish PhDs and monetary apparatchiks drove the...
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Surprise! Just in time for the November election, this is a negative surprise that Biden doesn’t want to hear. The Citi Economic Surprise index crashed to -7.30, the lowest since January 2023. Under Biden’s leadership (hell, he and his family already own several mansions … on a Senator’s pay), home prices are up 32% under Biden and mortgage rates are up a staggering 160%. Getting young households who rent to buy a home in this environment will require magic.
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I doubt if Biden really understands what he is saying. He simply reads (badly) off a teleprompter. Biden has repeatedly claimed that no new taxes on anyone making less than $400,000. Remember, he has repeatedly said “You have my word as a Biden.” Which is worthless, by the way. There are TWO taxes that are hitting people making under $400,000 per year. First, the INFLATION tax coming from Biden’s/Congresses spending binge, The Fed printing gobs of money, and insane regulations. Biden and his mouthpieces like Karine Jean Pierre (KJP) claim that Biden inherited inflation from Trump. FALSE. Inflation was only...
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Hey Joe! Where is the strongest jobs recovery in history?? BLS reported that in April the US added just 175K jobs, a nearly 50% drop from the upward revised 315K (was 303K)… .. and a huge miss to estimates of 240K… in fact, as shown below, this was the biggest miss since Dec 2021 The weakness was pervasive, and while payrolls were a huge miss, the unemployment rate also rose more than expected, from 3.8% to 3.9%, vs estimates of an unchanged print. Wages also eased back with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% MoM, below the expected 0.3% increase and...
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Fed Chair Powell yesterday said he doesn’t see the “stag” in stagflation. Really? Well, in Q1 in the US… it failed to show up as non-farm productivity – or nonfarm employee output per hour – rose at a measly 0.3% annualized rate after an upwardly revised 3.5% gain in the prior period (well below expectations)… Source: Bloomberg On the flip-side of that – and echoing the market-worrying ECI data earlier this week – Unit Labor Costs soared 4.7% in Q1 (well above the 4.0% expected and the 0.4% rise in Q4)… Source: Bloomberg So wage inflation is confirmed – rising...
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In the time (dis)honored tradition of Haruhiko Kuroda, the former governor of the Bank of Japan, Japan likely conducted its second currency intervention this week, current account figures from the central bank suggest, in another sign of the government’s intensified battle to prop up the yen. Tokyo’s latest entry into the market was likely around ¥3.5 trillion ($22.5 billion), based on a comparison of Bank of Japan accounts and money broker forecasts. The BOJ reported Thursday that its current account will probably fall ¥4.36 trillion due to fiscal factors on the next business day of Tuesday. That compares with the...
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The Fed will likely pause rate cuts/increases when The Fed reveals their plans today. Breaking: Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%—a 20-year peak—for a 6th consecutive meeting. With inflation still high, rate cuts seem off the table for now. Rate decision at 2pm Washington time. The Street seems aligned. Conforming rates are already up 161% under Biden. MBS returns have been abysmal under Biden/Powell.
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Housing in the US is simply unaffordable, particularly after HUD levied new regulation rising the cost of new housing up to $31,000. Wait for this to kick into the data for mortgage demand! Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 26, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week. The...
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Janet Yellen, world class propagandist (US version of Baghdad Bob) and US Treasury Secretary under Biden, was so wrong about inflation. Instead of being “transitory”, turns out to be seemingly permanent. Today’s Case-Shiller home price report was released for February. The National Home Price index was up 6.4% year-over-year. But look at the explosion of M2 Money and home prices. Hmm. If we look at home prices and M2 Money on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, we can see the surge in money printing with COVID and the corresponding surge in home prices. As M2 Money growth slowed, the Case-Shiller National...
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