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Massive Offensive Across the Entire Eastern Front "Something surprising has happened" - DPA It looks like a direct frontal attack right into where the Russians have been trying to advance, and supposedly where they are strongest. The Ukrainians keep surprising all of us. The sourcing is all from Russian Telegram sources apparently. No word yet from the Ukrainian side.

Ukrainian forces achieved their biggest breakthrough in the south of the country since the war began, bursting through the front and advancing rapidly along the Dnipro River on Monday, threatening to encircle thousands of Russian troops. Kyiv gave no official confirmation of the gains, but Russian sources acknowledged that a Ukrainian tank offensive had advanced dozens of kilometers (miles) along the river’s west bank, recapturing a number of villages along the way. “The information is tense, let’s put it that way, because, yes there were indeed breakthroughs,” Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed leader in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson province told...

Vladimir Putin faced severe embarrassment when Ukrainian soldiers liberated the key eastern city of Lyman, raising the blue and yellow national flag above its entrance sign, hours after Russia’s president announced that the area was Moscow’s “for ever”. Ukraine’s armed forces said they had entirely surrounded the city, trapping thousands of Russian soldiers inside. The governor of Luhansk province, Serhiy Haidai, said the besieged troops had begged on Friday to be allowed to leave Lyman. Their commanders refused, he claimed. With no way out, the Russians could either surrender, try to escape or die together, Haidai said. An attempt by...

Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵 Consider a timely paper on Russian army by Bismarck Analysis. It's good & informative. It's correct on its land-based and artillery-centric character. It's also correct that Minister of Defence Serdyukov greatly increased army's efficiency in 2007-2012. But it's still misleading Yes, Minister Serdyukov indeed reformed the army. He increased its efficiency, fought with corrupt and...

The defence minister of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov believes that Belarusian soldiers have no motivation to enter the war with Ukraine, and if ordered by their authorities to fight, they would lay down their weapons. "I don't understand what would motivate Belarusians to consciously go to war with Ukraine, kill and die for no one knows what, even if they are officers who are under oath obliged to follow orders. If they go on the attack with their units, they could cross the Belarusian border, raise their hands, lay down their weapons and say, ‘Ukrainians, we are your syabry. [Belarusians] are...

"In the past 24 hours, in their effective operations the Russian forces eliminated 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other combat armored vehicles, 8 pickup vehicles with large-caliber machine-guns and over 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen," Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported