Free Republic

Negative interest rates are spreading like a virus. Central banks in the Eurozone, Switzerland, Sweden, and Japan all have below-zero policy rates. “NIRP,” as economists call a negative interest rate policy, is a desperation move—but the only move those central banks have. The Federal Reserve hasn’t followed—yet. When the next recession strikes, I believe Janet Yellen will choose to break the zero lower bound. The rationale was laid out in Jackson Hole. Look behind the headlines and you’ll see the Fed already preparing for NIRP. In theory, negative rates should encourage consumers and businesses to spend more freely and stimulate...

Large parts of the eurozone are slipping deeper into a deflationary trap despite negative interest rates and one trillion euros of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, leaving the currency bloc with no safety buffer when the next global recession hits. The ECB is close to exhausting its ammunition and appears increasingly powerless to do more under the legal constraints of its mandate. It has downgraded its growth forecast for the next two years, citing the uncertainties of Brexit, and admitted that it has little chance of meeting its 2pc inflation target this decade, insisting that it is now...

Looking to dazzle friends and family at the next summer barbecue? Well, drop this little fact on them: global interest rates are at their lowest in 5,000 years. Not only that, you can tell the acquaintance who brags about his gold bars in the bank vault that returns on commodities are the worst since 1933. Sounds crazy you may say, but that’s just the kind of history Bank of America Merrill Lynch rolled out in the third edition of “Longest Pictures” note. The first chart shows the lowest global interest rates going all the way back to 3,000 B.C. Michael...

was talking about the bond bubble earlier this week. Seems I’m not the only one who’s a bit worried. Bill Gross, founder of Pimco (now at Janus Capital), tweeted “Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history… This is a supernova that will explode one day.” Aside from making the pedantic point that a supernova is itself an explosion (according to my limited knowledge of astronomy at least), I find little to disagree with here. The big question is – when will the bubble burst? We discussed that on Monday. But in the meantime, it’s worth asking – what...

The central bank experiment with negative interest rates—where governments charge you to buy their debt—is reaching a tipping point. Fierce political backlash is emerging against a policy that hurts savers and small businesses, all of which could have ramifications for U.S. markets. The bulk of negative-yielding debt is concentrated in Japan and Europe. Globally, the total is now $10.4 trillion, according to Fitch Ratings. In Japan, where politicians are preparing for the next election cycle, negative rates have become a hotbed issue. The chief policy architect of Japan’s new Democratic Party, Shiori Yamao, just came out publicly against the Bank...

Bond guru Bill Gross believes the growing global move toward negative yields will have dire consequences. In a tweet from his firm, Janus Capital, Gross goes back half a millennium to assert that the current situation with the world's debt market is unprecedented and dangerous: The warning comes as yields on Japanese government bonds and German bunds hit record lows.

“Negative interest rates” have become a phenomenon with economists and the media. But I’m writing to tell you something about negative interest rates you haven’t heard. You certainly won’t hear about it in the mainstream press. What’s coming at you is a historic event. It’s something our grandchildren will hear stories about, much like the Great Depression or the Cold War. It could send the price of gold much higher in the coming years. If you know what’s coming, it could mean the difference between having lots of free cash in retirement and barely getting by. And please remember this...

As Draghi said in a speech to Asian government officials and business leaders on Monday, there’s still a great deal more that can be done to punish Europe’s hordes of savers, the central banker’s scapegoat du jour for all that ails Europe’s debt-laden economy. The low or negative interest rates plaguing Europe are a symptom of a much bigger problem, he said: the compression of investment returns due to a massive global savings glut. To our great amazement, it’s this purported glut — and not his monetary policies — that lies behind the historic decline in interest rates. Inevitably, whenever...

The Federal Reserve's years-long campaign to sheepishly back away from its own policy forecasts continued in earnest last week when it officially reduced the four expected 2016 quarter point hikes, suggested back in December, to just two. Given the deteriorating economic outlook, I believe there can be little doubt that the Fed will soon complete the capitulation process and remove all expectations for additional hikes this year. Even before that happens, savvy observers should have already concluded that the Federal Reserve is stuck in the monetary mud just as firmly now as it has been since the dawn of the...

The world economy would be worse off without negative interest rates, according to International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Negative rates in Europe and Japan have helped support global growth and price gains, she said in an interview in Ho Chi Minh City on Friday. The finance sector may need to implement new business models as a result, she said. “If we had not had those negative rates, we would be in a much worse place today, with inflation probably lower than where it is, with growth probably lower than where we have it,” Lagarde said. “It was a...

Central Banks Have Signed Their Death Warrants During the past year U.S. consumption spending for health care rose by 5%. Spending at restaurants and bars were up by 9%, while spending for gasoline and other energy products was down by 22%. This was Mr. Market at work--millions of households reallocating their spending in response to relative price changes. It had nothing to do with a macroeconomic abstraction called "weak demand". Actually, the medical care component of the CPI rose 3.3% last year. Housing and shelter were up by 3.2%, while gasoline prices were down by 7.3%. It all added up...

NEW HAVEN - In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates - one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis. The adoption of negative interest rates - initially launched in Europe in 2014 and now embraced...

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen faced what may have seemed like an absurd line of questioning on Capitol Hill this week: Has the Fed considered negative interest rates? It's not a fantasy. At central banks around the world, negative benchmark interest rates have become the new normal, leading to some unusual paradoxes. In Denmark, instead of paying interest on their mortgages, many borrowers have been receiving payments from banks on their home loans. On the flip side, some Swiss bank customers have had to pay banks to keep cash in savings accounts. Yellen told Congress Thursday, following negative moves by central banks in Europe and elsewhere, the Fed has...

One of the most surprising comments this year came from a closed session on fintech where I sat next to someone in policy circles who argued that we should move quickly to a cashless economy so that we could introduce negative rates well below 1% – as they were concerned that Larry Summers' secular stagnation was indeed playing out and we would be stuck with negative rates for a decade in Europe. They felt below (1.5)% depositors would start to hoard notes, leading to yet further complexities for monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve started raising official interest rates in December. But in the stress tests that large U.S. banks have to undergo, the central bank is hypothesizing that short-term Treasury yields could drop below zero. The European Central Bank and, since Friday, the Bank of Japan are trying it with policy benchmarks. Though negative U.S. interest rates are for now only in the Fed's worst-case scenario, they are becoming a plausible downturn assumption.

<p>Is there a connection between Microsoft billionaire Paul Allen and sniper suspect John Lee Malvo? Did Allen's foundation help fund the immigration group in the Pacific Northwest that wound up assisting the sniper suspect? We'll bring you a special report.</p>