Free Republic

Optimism among small companies in the United States improved in February, snapping a five-month losing streak that was the longest in two decades on brighter views of future conditions. The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index rose to 101.7 from a two-year low of 101.2, according to a report March 12. Five of 10 index components improved, including views about the current environment for expansion and capital spending plans. The measure is showing signs of stabilization after the government shutdown and remains at a historically elevated level despite cooling from a record 108.8 in August. “Now that the government...

Stock indices are hitting new highs as the economy keeps producing good numbers. New heights of small business optimism contradicts the convential storyline that the recovery is losing stream, that we should prepare ourselves for the downturn. Worriers focus on the role of FAANG stocks driving the market higher. But recently, the Russell 2000, a “small company” stock index began posting record gains as well, based on very favorable profit reports for small businesses. The “small cap” companies in the Index are much larger than NFIB members, but their experience mirrors the record reports of rising profits among NFIB members....

Potential perils are in plain sight: An intense and unpredictable tariff battle is alarming businesses across the country. The annual federal deficit is heading toward $1 trillion. Credit card debt is soaring. And the synchronous wave that lifted every world economy at the year’s start has dissipated. So what? Such risks have done little to puncture the exuberant optimism that is encouraging American businesses to ramp up hiring and consider new investment. The confidence is rooted only partly in hard-nosed data, like the rapid pace of growth expected for the second quarter and record low jobless rates. It is also...

A poll released by the far-left CNN shows that optimism about the direction of the country under President Trump has hit an 11-year high of 57 percent. The last time this same poll registered a number that high was in January 2007. This includes 40 percent of Democrats, which is a leap of 15 points from just last month. Only 40 percent say things are going badly. Also of note is that CNN polled a random sample of adults. Polls that screen for registered or likely voters generally produce a more favorable result for Trump. This poll is a good...

Now that we are a full year into President Trump’s increasingly consequential first term, it is long past time to give him complete ownership of the American economy. If it seems odd to do so after only a year, that is due to former President Barack Obama, who never stopped blaming his predecessor for a recovery that never arrived because Obama could not stop sabotaging it with his anti-growth policies and anti-free market rhetoric. Even lying conspiracy theorists in the media and Democrat Party backed by a special prosecutor, even the gale force wind of hate and lies, have not...

Index rises to +138, highest since +147 in September 2000Hike is latest in 98-point rise since February 201668% optimistic about stock market -- tied for highest percentage on record WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A new surge of optimism among U.S. investors has pushed the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index to its highest level since September 2000. The index, after rising in every quarter since the start of 2016, leveled off in the second quarter at +124 before rising to its current +138 in the third quarter. The latest boost in optimism pushes the index almost 100 points higher...

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that since President Donald Trump took office on January 20 the number of people who believe the economy is improving is at the highest level in 15 years, The Post reported on Sunday.

Economy: We've been cataloging the sharp upturn in optimism since Donald Trump won the November election, and the Business Roundtable has just added a new one to the pile. Not that you'd know about from the endless media dirge. The Business Roundtable survey of 141 CEOs — of some of the largest companies in the country — not only found these chief executives more optimistic, but made clear why: Trump's victory in November and the promise of relief from the anti-business agenda of the Obama years. "I think it's fair to say that CEOs see the business environment as improving...

A strong majority of Americans say the U.S. economy is running strong, and most believe the upward trend will continue under President Trump, according to a Harvard-Harris poll provided exclusively to The Hill. The survey found that 61 percent view the economy as strong, against 39 percent who say it is weak. .. "It's really a surprising turnaround given how negative voters have been about the economy since 2009," said Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard-Harris poll. {..snip..}

The passing of the legendary actress, Debbie Reynolds, coming one day after she lost her lovely daughter, Carrie Fisher, prompted me to watch the Youtube clip of Gene Kelly's "Singin' in the Rain." The scene is one of the all-time Hollywood classics, maybe the best song-and-dance take in cinema history. But the scene calls to mind a far more primary and significant idea to me than the genius of Gene Kelly and his emotional outpouring at finding his true love in the character played by Debbie Reynolds. The scene absolutely epitomizes the optimism and forward-looking nature of the historic American...

It's time to take the gloves of the U.S. economy. I’m not sure what happened around this time 8 years ago but, whatever it was, it sent small business owners into a tailspin. Confidence plummeted, optimism evaporated, and the outlook became bleak. It stayed that way throughout the soon-to-be previous administration’s tenure. What a difference an election makes.

President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. elections is a giant leap for small businesses, according to a survey of their owners. The November reading of the National Federation of Independent Businesses' small business optimism index jumped to 98.4 from 94.9 — its sharpest surge since 2009 — with all of the increase in sentiment coming after the U.S. elections held on Nov. 8. “This month we bifurcated the data to measure the results before and after the election,” explained Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The November index was basically unchanged from October's reading up to the point of the election...

Americans from all corners of the economy seem to be enjoying the conditions a lot more since the election of Donald Trump. Nearly every measure of consumer, business, or executive confidence has gained in the month since the election according to Michelle Meyer, chief US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The data clearly show that consumers, investors, and business CEOs have all become more optimistic since the election," wrote Meyer in a note to clients on Thursday. Everything from regional manufacturing indexes to consumer confidence surveys to investor sentiment have ticked up since November 8. The only survey...

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped this month, led by a sharp slide in confidence about the economic outlook over the next six months. Pessimism deepened among Democrats, in particular, with their view of near-term economic prospects sinking to a five-year low. The overall IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index fell 1.7 points to 46.7, remaining in pessimistic territory below the 50 level since April 2015. The index has been in a narrow range of from 45.5 to 48.7 this year. The index is a composite of three major subindexes that track views of near-term economic prospects, the outlook for personal finances...

Pessimism about the U.S. economy has fallen to its lowest level since last November, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a bad sign for consumer spending as Apple (AAPL), Gap (GPS) and other consumer companies report sluggish demand. The sentiment gauge fell 2.7 points, or 5.6%, to 45.5, matching November's reading. The index has been below the neutral 50 level since April 2015. The poll's Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy's prospects in the next six months, dropped 6.9 points to 36.7, falling 15.8%. That's the lowest since a matching reading last...

Politics and the economy are both looking up. President Obama’s big-government spending, planning, and executive-branch overreach were crushed at the polls. Elections matter. The GOP has been rejuvenated. Republican governors will lead the way. And the Republican majorities in the House and Senate haven’t been this big since the 1920s. They know what to do — develop a positive agenda: Pro-growth tax reform and spending limits. Pro-energy. Pro-King Dollar and Fed monetary reform. Pro-health-care choice. Pro-immigration reform. Pro-marriage. Pro-family. An American renaissance is in the making. Let the GOP put its best policy foot forward. If Obama vetoes the growth...

The Cracker Barrel customer had a checkbook, and what he wrote in it after lunch Thursday would make his happy server even happier, but first he and his friend had a few questions. They asked the hostess: Can you give us your grumpiest server? We want to make them laugh. Sorry, the hostess said. Nobody grumpy here. I’ll seat you with our happiest. At Table 222, they asked Abigail Sailors for the special — turkey and dressing — and for eggs and sausage. Then they asked the 18-year-old why she was so happy. And over the course of their meals,...

"Bye Bye Birdie" is an old musical that survives in high school productions and in some people's memory bank. It debuted on Broadway in 1960 and was made into a film in 1963. One of the songs from the show might serve as an inspiration, if not a theme, for Republicans in the winter of their discontent over President Obama and congressional Democrats: "Put on a Happy Face." A problem Republicans have had since the "glory days" of Ronald Reagan is that too many have forgotten how to be positive and affirming. Nobody likes to be around a sourpuss....

The current budget impasse might have made you a bit blue. Ups and downs are normal in life, but when the potential of a debt default is the news, it's easy to forget the ups. In "Learned Optimism, How to Change Your Mind and Your Life," Martin Seligman provides a map to a more optimistic outlook. As a graduate student in experimental psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, Seligman studied dogs and noticed that some would do nothing when they were shocked. Seligman determined that the dogs had felt the "shocks go on and off regardless of whether they struggled...

In a couple of days, Iran will inaugurate a new president, Hassan Rouhani, which has caused some to speculate that the country is entering a new era. Rouhani has become a favorite "moderate" with much of the Western media, with The New York Times gushing in a recent headline: "President-Elect Stirs Optimism in Iran and West." But such optimism defies history. Rouhani is not a new figure on the Iranian scene. He has served at the highest levels of the Islamic regime for decades. For 16 years, he served as secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the chief body...