Free Republic

Key Points •Last Friday’s payroll report was generally cheered as having Goldilocks characteristics, but a closer look is warranted. •Wage growth was weaker-than-expected, with low wage industries in the spotlight; while manufacturing employment data is also troubling. •Layoffs are picking up, while consumers are worried about future job opportunities. The monthly payroll report is always closely scrutinized by economists and market watchers; perhaps even more so these days given the Federal Reserve’s decision to shift into neutral/pause mode earlier this year. After a dismal February, payroll growth rebounded in March; with nonfarm payrolls rising a higher-than-expected 196k, and slight upward...

...But there is one detail in the jobs report that suggests there is still room for improvement. The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of how many people are employed or actively seeking work compared to the whole population (not just those looking for work), is 62.7 percent. According to the report, this is “unchanged over the month and over the year.” In total numbers, there are 96,230,000 Americans who are not in the labor force, which is an increase of 456,000 since President Obama’s last year in office. ... The Trump administration is likewise set to release...

In another sign that the labor market slack, at least from the Fed's perspective, is now reaching a peak, the Household survey reported that while the civilian labor force rose by over 300K in October, the number of people not in the labor force actually declined by 97K to 94.5MM (as those employed rose by 320K), following an exodus from the labor force of over half a million in September. Despite this headline improvement, however, the participation rate remained at 62.4%, same as the prior month, and at a level last seen in 1977.  Elsewhere, the civilian employment to...

While the September jobs number was an absolute disaster, here is the real punchline: in September, the people not in the labor force soared by a whopping 579,000 to a record 94.6 million, up from the previous record 94.0, even as number of people employed - according to the household survey used to calculate the "5.1%" unemployment rate - tumbled by 236,000 to 148.8 million. And as a result of this latest surge in people who aren't working, nor want to work, the participation rate crashed yet again, and sliding from 62.6% to 62.4%, it was the lowest since October...

A record 56,023,000 women, age 16 years and over, were not in the labor force in February. Not only was that a record high, but it’s also the first time the number has exceeded 56 million, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). To be counted as “not in the labor force,” according to the BLS, one must not have a job or have looked for one in the past four weeks. In January 2015, there were 55,756,000 women not in the labor force, which means that 267,000 women dropped out of the labor force since then....

A record 92,594,000 Americans were not in the labor force in April as the labor force participation rate matched a 36-year low of 62.8 percent, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In March, according to BLS's non-seasonally adjusted data, there were 91,630,000 Americans not in the labor force. In April, that increased by 964,000 people to an all-time record of 92,594,000. The previous record was 92,534,000, set in January of this year. The BLS's seasonally-adjusted number for people not in the labor force--which was 92,018,00 for April--was also an all-time record. This was up 988,000...

There's a dirty little secret buried in the monthly employment data. It's a secret so dark, so exquisitely threatening to the financial media industry that those who reveal it risk being expunged from the community like magicians revealing their tricks. The National Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 192,000 jobs were added to the economy in March. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 6.7%. The participation rate rose to 63.2%. Now the dirty secret: none of that actually matters very much. 1.The number itself is simply impossible to measure with any accuracy ... 2.The unemployment rate is irrelevant. ... 3.No...

Obama lies as the economy dies and more people go on food stamps. While a pathetic 96,000 jobs (less than expected) were added to Obama's trickle growth economy last month (mostly low wage, part time, temporary work) the labor participation rate declined from 63.7 to 63.5%, the lowest since January 1981-Jimmy Carter's stagflation economy. There was less people working in August than in July, less in July than in June, less this year than last year and the year before. But due to statistical trickery by president transparancy (who quoted Abe Lincoln last night) the unemployment rate dropped from 8.3...