Posted on 04/29/2002 8:05:39 AM PDT by gubamyster
Edited on 04/13/2004 2:40:13 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
These are the numbers that matter, IMHO. People already know Grayout. His unfavorables will be hard to change. Andecdotally, many 'Rats I know say they will not, or cannot, vote for him. Go Simon Go.....
If memory serves, Simon's inhouse polls show him with a 7% lead. Couple that with Davis lead in this poll and you have a 21% swing.
One, or both of the polls are way off and the accurate picture is not being presented.
Yeah, it's this one. One look at Davis pulling 15% of Republicans made me laugh so hard I'll feel good the rest of the day.
50% negatives for an incumbant? Let's say it all together: Davis is un-re-elect-able!
Simon says: BUMP!
1) Davis is at 43%. The recent public policy group poll (I forget the name, but it was a post on FR) had Davis at 41%. This shows that his support is a constant.2) 50% of the people have an unfavorable impression while only 11% have no impression. His name ID is virtually 100% and half of everyone doesn't like him.
3) This poll is among all registered voters, not likely voters, which ALWAYS skews the numbers toward the Democrat (conservatives vote in a higher propensity than liberals of all parties).
4) Simon has a larger "no opinion/not heard of" which means that he has a better opportunity to get those people on his team: it's far harder to swing someone from "don't like you" to "like you" to "don't know" to "like you." Davis is DEFINITELY NOT LIKED.
5) Davis' Central Valley numbers are pitiful, and that's the largest swing area of the state.
6) The so-called "women's vote" ... Davis is only getting 43% which is EXACTLY his overall vote percentage in this poll. NO advantage on the women's vote. You would think that with all the "women's right to choose" crap he's been spewing, the women would be falling all over themselves for the opportunity to vote for a pro-abort: NOT HAPPENING!
There are lots of other things in this poll, but I think that these are the key points. TURNOUT IS EVERYTHING. Conservatives must be united for Simon and work to get him elected. We have a real opportunity to put in a real conservative. Personally, I don't know why he wants the job since Davis has run the deficit up to $22 billion (net loss of $35 billion) and is using smoke and mirrors to delude us into thinking that he's getting rid of the budget deficit. Simon is going to have a LOT to fix from Davis and the Democrats fiscal malfeasance. But I would rather than Simon fixing the problem than Davis raising taxes ... which is the FIRST thing he'll do in January IF he wins re-election and everyone knows it!
Go Simon! DUMP DAVIS!
Bush is in CA today doing a couple of fundraisers for Simon. Simon is going to have to be front and center from here until November. The media is going to go after him hard so he needs his own mug out there all the time.
I don't care what anybody says, this race is wide open. And I'd rather have unknown Simon's fav/unfav numbers than incumbent Gray-out's.
But I'd rather have Gray-out's war chest.
The Field poll is the one with the problem. They are polling ALL ADULTS -- not likely voters, not even registered voters, but anyone who answers the phone.
Field are notoriusly inaccurate.
By the way the California Teachers Association Poll last week showed Simon 41% and Davis 37% -- and believe me they are not friends of Simon's.
Just as an aside, this is precisely why Hitlery will never be president, either.
Actually this stupid poll is not even of registered voters. It is a poll of ALL ADULTS. That would be anyone who is able to drag their knuckles across the carpet to the phone and answer it. No word if the person actually had to say "hello" or if a grunt would suffice.
More sophisticated political pollsters call names from the voter registration database and they categorize how likely the person is to vote based upon how often they are recorded as voting in recent elections.
As I said, by leaving it up to the person who answers the phone to determine if they are registered and likely to vote, it becomes a poll of ALL ADULTS -- maybe not even that. I suppose a child with a deep voice could answer too.
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