Davis ekes out 7-point lead over Simon-Poll shows voters against hopeful rather than for governor

SF Chronicle ^ | 7/11/02 | Lynda Gledhill

[ElkGroveDan]

Here is a historical example of just how bad the Field poll is. According tot his story all of the private polls showed Wilson leading Kathleen Brown by as much as 9 points, but good old Mervin Field had Jerry Brown's little sister up by 5. As we all know Wilson thumped her that November 51%-44%

This poll is nearly identical to they way things are now. All the private polls have Simon a head of Davis by 4-9 points, but Field is coming in with Davis ahead by 7. Note the date too. This Field Poll was also taken in July.

 

The San Francisco Examiner

July 20, 1994, Wednesday; Fourth Edition

SECTION: NEWS; Pg. A-6

LENGTH: 600 words

HEADLINE: Brown maintains lead over Wilson ;
But new poll shows support for Demo gubernatorial candidate has slipped to 44%

SOURCE: OF THE EXAMINER STAFF

BYLINE: TUPPER HULL

DATELINE: SACRAMENTO

BODY:
Although her lead over Gov. Wilson has slipped, Kathleen Brown and her campaign reacted happily to news she is leading the Republican incumbent by a 5-point margin in a new statewide poll.

"We're landing punches," said Brown, the Democratic Party's nominee for governor, as she completed a two-day bus tour of the Bay Area on Tuesday. Brown and her aides had expected the poll to show her trailing Wilson for the first time since she announced her candidacy last year. "I like it when I'm ahead," she told reporters.

The Field Poll, conducted last week, shows her with the support of 44 percent of a sampling of the state's electorate, compared with Wilson's 39 percent.

It was conducted while Brown was airing four separate television ads attacking Wilson's record.

Wilson spokesman Dan Schnur countered that the poll was good news for the governor. He noted that Field polls had found Brown ahead of Wilson by 8 percentage points just two months ago and Brown leading by 12 points in April.

"In the last two weeks, Kathleen Brown has thrown the political sink at us, and it's barely made a scratch," said Schnur.

"They went out and tried to buy themselves a poll, and they didn't even do that right," he said.

The latest Field survey also found a growing number of Californians unhappy with the job Wilson is doing as governor. Of the more than 600 people surveyed, 41 percent said they believed Wilson was doing a poor or very job, compared with 35 percent who gave him the same grade in May.

Another 32 percent said Wilson was doing a fair job (33 percent ranked his job performance as fair in May), and 25 percent said he was doing a good or excellent job (28 percent gave him a good or excellent rating in May).

Recent private polls, including polls conducted by Brown's own campaign, have found the first-term state treasurer trailing Wilson by up to 9 points. It was largely because of those polls that Brown's aides predicted the prestigious Field Poll also would show her behind.

But John Whitehurst, Brown's chief spokesman, said he believed Brown had moved ahead in the hard-fought race largely because of the negative television ads she was running throughout the state.

"It shows how weak he is," Whitehurst said. "One week of television ads, and his numbers collapsed."

Tuesday's poll followed by one day appearances by both gubernatorial candidates at the California Broadcasters' Association convention in Monterey, during which they exchanged strongly worded attacks.

The appearances, the first time the two candidates have appeared together since they won their parties' primary elections, set the tone for what many political observers believe will be a close and bitter race up to the Nov. 8 vote.

GRAPHIC: PHOTO (AP / RICH PEDRONCELLI)
Caption 1, Kathleen Brown admires Veronica Garcia's finger painting at George Moscone elementary in The City on Tuesday.

LOAD-DATE: July 22, 1994

[heleny]

As pointed out by dalereed in a duplicate post of this article, the San Diego Union Tribune noted that

The Field Poll was conducted by telephone in either English or Spanish

but the SF Chronicle omitted those details.

[Gophack]

The Field Poll is notoriously wrong. On another thread, a poster showed that the Field Poll had kathleen Brown winning by 5 points, and she lost by 7.

First, the Field Poll usings self-identified likely voters, not actual likely voters. Second, it pulls its sample on population, not vote propensity, therefore it oversamples urban areas which have a lower vote propensity than rural and suburban areas. Looking at the cross-tabs, Simon is ties in suburban areas and winning in rural and the Central Valley.

Even using the notorious inaccurate Field Poll, Davis' lead has been CUT IN HALF in two months! That's phenominal, considering that San Francisco and Los Angeles were over-sampled!

Davis is in deep doo-doo. All other polls show Simon ahead. Even a Democrat union poll shows Simon up by 4!

We have nearly four months -- the election is 16 weeks away. Simon is setting himself up for victory. He can't waste his money now ... it's ridiculous to do so when the voters are not paying attention (and won't until the last six weeks before the election).

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

The poll isn't accurate, Simon is up 4-8 points (4 per a Democrat union poll, 8 per the Public Opinion Strategies poll released last week).

[Gophack]

The Field Poll samples based on population, not vote propensity, and they use SELF-DESCRIBED likely voters, not ACTUAL likely voters.

[Dog Gone]

It is really hard to imagine that Davis could win re-election. He is not liked, and while California would elect Democrats every time if everyone voted, it's going to be easy for a lot of people to stay home.

[Gophack]

I agree with you. With Davis' high unfavorables ... over 50% ... and his support going steadily down, it's going to be two things that will give Simon the victory in November: Above average turn-out in all areas outside of San Francisco and Los Angeles; and below average turn-out in the cities.

Simon is doing well with the Republicans and with the Democrats in the Central Valley AND HE HAS BARELY TAPPED INTO TELEVISION. Simon is working the Hispanic vote, and if he can get 35% of the Hispanic vote, there's no way Davis can win. Davis has spent $4 million on television in June, and lost seven points in the faulty Field Poll. Something is definitely up there.

Davis is doomed. I think he will lie, cheat and steal to win, but if SImon can keep up his numbers and make up the difference, Simon will be our next Governor.

We need to WORK and PRAY and WORK some more!

Go Simon!

[Euro-American Scum]

I really don't mean to offend any Freepers who live in California, but darn - how can you stand it.

You touched on a lot of it in your rant. Life in California is easy. The weather is wonderful -- hot summers, but mostly dry; winters right off a vacation post card (except during El Nino years). We've got good, high-paying jobs (those of us still employed), probably are invested in real estate, the kids are in school and doing well (for the most part), and life is good. It's just not that easy to uproot and start over again.

We're dug in here. This state, for all its flaws, means something to us. It's home. And we know the price of living here. We're outnumbered. We're surrounded by liberals who have a gilt-edged sense of entitlement to be taken care of from cradle to grave at the expense of the achievers who live here.

It's easy to say, stand up, get active, be counted. But since Prop 187, California has become a haven for the great unwashed misfits who don't fit anywhere else and who seek their pound of flesh at the expense of just the kind of people who built the state into the worlds 5th largest economy. We're outnumbered. And it's not going to get any better. California is New York West.

I do think with this insane SUV tax and other proposed taxes that go part and parcel with a liberal majority run amok, that over time, the achievers are going to leave. What the socialists in Sacramento will do once the teats have run dry is anybody's guess. Invade Texas perhaps.

Tough times indeed in the Golden State.