Indian Army on six-hour alert

Intelligence On Line ^ | April 18, 2002 | Intelligence On Line

[HeliumAvid]

Indian Army on six-hour alert

18 May 2002: The Indian Army has been put on a six-hour alert and the cabinet committee on security will today consider military options against Pakistani terrorism that revolve around air raids on terror camps and limited capture of strategic territory, top officials said.

Officials also said that the Indian Army has been put on less than six-hour alert in the northern sector where an Indian offensive is being planned against Pakistan.

Indian forces were so far on training mode.

India deployed the largest strength of troops since the 1971 Bangladesh War on the common border with Pakistan following the 13-December-2001 Pakistani terrorist attack on Indian Parliament.

Officials said that all non-field formations responsible for setting up supply routes have been pressed into action again.

“The focus is on a limited offensive in the northern sector,” an official said.

Military circles are widely discussing an old option to seize Haji Pir pass captured and returned in the 1965 war with Pakistan.

A captured Haji Pir will connect Uri to Poonch and limit cross-border terrorism.

In a winter offensive, India was planning to open a second front in the desert.

But officials said that most of the strike elements have been moved to Punjab.

Analysts said that this indicated that if the war escalates, India could open a second front in the plains of Punjab.

“Our understanding,” said an official, “is that if Pakistan does use the limited nuclear strike option against our troops, it would be better to face it in the scarcely-populated desert than in agriculturally-rich, densely-populated Punjab.”

This is one major drawback with opening a second front into Pakistan from Punjab.

Officials said that India expects the United States to come down heavily on Pakistan either if it escalates the conventional war (which India thinks it cannot win) or if it goes for a nuclear strike.

[wretchard]

The campaign to take Kashmir from India is being waged on two fronts: one for national purposes by the Pakistani Army, using conventional means; another for Islamic purposes using terrorist tactics. The recent Indian response has been largely symbolic, probably because of a lack of political consensus and military preparation required to support a decisive response, and partly in the hope that the a 9/11 energized America could rein in the Pakistanis.

In recent months, the Indians may have redressed their operational deficiencies and gained strength. In the meantime, Musharaff has attained another term, the US has increased is presence in Pakistan and the Al-Qaeda have been penetrated; which is to say the agressive factions have lost strength.

The Indian buildup looks like preparation to administer a relatively short, but brutal incursion into Pakistani-controlled territory. The idea would be to humiliate the irridentist factions in Pakistan. It's success will critically depend on the performance of the Indian Army. They have to put the Pakistani Army on the ropes within a very short time without escalating to nuclear weapons to give the US a chance to step in and broker a settlement which will essentially oust the agressive elements of the Pakistani army and government.

This will be a hell of an act to pull off. The Indian Army is better known for its grinding power than its lightning tempo. It may soon be taking the stage to demonstrate how it can balance six spinning plates from a 30 foot pole. The real danger lies in two places: the possibility that the Indian Army will become bogged down and enhance the prestige of the irredentists; or the the chance that the cheap command and control mechanism of Pakistan will break down and fire off nukes. Then all the bets are off.

[Cold Heat]

Give war a chance, will you?

LOL!...... OK>>>>>>>>>>>

[maquiladora]

Hey, according to the Pakistan News Service "India has started a limited war on Pakistan with dangerous nuclear consequences".

[section9]

First, allow me to say that this was a superb analysis, far beyond my poor power to duplicate. How and ever, allow me to comment...

The campaign to take Kashmir from India is being waged on two fronts: one for national purposes by the Pakistani Army, using conventional means; another for Islamic purposes using terrorist tactics. The recent Indian response has been largely symbolic, probably because of a lack of political consensus and military preparation required to support a decisive response, and partly in the hope that the a 9/11 energized America could rein in the Pakistanis.

Conquest of the Kashmir is this far-off nationalist wish-dream of the Pakistani populace that bubbles up from time to time in the long-running border war that has occured since 1947.

Musharraf is the front man for a divided government. Despite his Kemalist leanings, I'm not sure that he has the support within the military to suppress the jihadists within his country, much less within the Army. For example, I would guess that it's holy writ among Western Intelligence personnel that half the ISI is leaking information to the Al-Qaeda.

In recent months, the Indians may have redressed their operational deficiencies and gained strength. In the meantime, Musharaff has attained another term, the US has increased its presence in Pakistan and the Al-Qaeda have been penetrated; which is to say the agressive factions have lost strength.

I'm not so sure about al Qaeda, if only because I'm not so sure how successful we've been in penetrating the Northwest Frontier. And our presence in Pakistan is a double-edged sword: what do we do if India invades and Pakistan demands that we help defend her as quid pro quo for their help (such as it is) on the war on Terror.

The Indian buildup looks like preparation to administer a relatively short, but brutal incursion into Pakistani-controlled territory. The idea would be to humiliate the irridentist factions in Pakistan. It's success will critically depend on the performance of the Indian Army. They have to put the Pakistani Army on the ropes within a very short time without escalating to nuclear weapons to give the US a chance to step in and broker a settlement which will essentially oust the agressive elements of the Pakistani army and government.

This will be a hell of an act to pull off. The Indian Army is better known for its grinding power than its lightning tempo. It may soon be taking the stage to demonstrate how it can balance six spinning plates from a 30 foot pole. The real danger lies in two places: the possibility that the Indian Army will become bogged down and enhance the prestige of the irredentists; or the the chance that the cheap command and control mechanism of Pakistan will break down and fire off nukes. Then all the bets are off.

Indeed, one of the problems with the Small Fry having nuclear weapons is that personal honor and national prestige can sometimes be used as excuses for firing weaponry.

One gets the impression by watching the Indian Army that Bernard Law Montgomery is in command, plodding along, and one does pine for the presence of a George Patton.

I would not blame the Indians if they did attack in the Kashmir. Islamabad cannot, cannot control the irredentists, and many members of the government are actually supporting the Kashmiri seperatists.

Finally, I am of the opinion that India's incursion into Kashmir could involve airmobile troops to provide an airhead behind the lines coinciding with a broad front thrust by Indian infantry into the Indus headwaters region. Meanwhile, in the south, India will gather its Panzer reserve to concentrate Pakistani minds and divide Pakistani forces. The Panzer reserve will not move west unless the Pakistanis use nuclear weapons or move troops into Indian territory.

Just my take.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[marshmallow]

For a Christian, neither India nor Pakistan have been pleasant places to be, recently. Hindu militants have killed priests, raped nuns and desecrated churches, just as Islamic militants have done in Pakistan.

However, militant Hinduism is not the same threat to the west that militant Islam is, thus our inclination to make India the "good guys". I have a feeling that if this escalates, there will be carnage on both sides.

[FormerLib]

Lord Jesus Christ, our God, You have said, "Apart from me, you can do nothing." In faith we embrace Your words, Lord, and we entreat Your goodness. Help us to carry out the work we am about to begin, and to bring it to completion. To You we give glory, Father, Son and Holy Spirit. Amen.

[wretchard]

Thanks. I learned a lot from your reply.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

I don't think this is just for diplomatic purposes. Balloon's about to go up. Only question is how a big a balloon it will become.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

to the people who think that the world is in a dangerous place today then wait until after India slaps down the Paki's. That will be glorious for the islamic wackos and will be seen as a golden chance for using Pakistan's nukes against the West and India and Russia.

[infowarrior]

Ballon's about to go up...

Perhaps. The one piece missing from this picture is this...
We know where the Indian Army and Air Force are, and what they may do. But where is the Indian Navy during all this?

No mention has been made of them, and in the event of hostilities, I seriously doubt they would be sitting on their hands...

the infowarrior

PS FWIW, I'm referring to the Indian Navy's carrier task force(s)...

[HiTech RedNeck]

It's ludicrous to rank Hindus anywhere close to Muslim theocracies for pure destructivness in rabid extremism. Does India forbid bibles on pain of death?

[RightWhale]

where is the Indian Navy

They are prepared to blockade Pakistan from the sea.

[infowarrior]

They are prepared to blockade Pakistan by sea...

In the event of hostilities, I expect they would be tasked with more than simple blockade duty, and gunboats could do that job. I am more concerned with where and what the carrier task force, and guided missile frigates would be up to...

the infowarrior

[swarthyguy]

But where is the Indian Navy during all this?

Underwater.

[McGavin999]

We all seem to be making the assumption that the nuclear weapon would work. What if they fire it off and nothing happens?

[Mitchell]

We all seem to be making the assumption that the nuclear weapon would work. What if they fire it off and nothing happens?

This is an important question that must be addressed, totally aside from the India-Pakistan conflict. How does one respond to a nuclear bomb that turns out to be a dud? If a foreign power plants such a bomb in the U.S., do we respond with nuclear retaliation? Even though no one was killed? If we don't retaliate, has our nuclear deterrent lost credibility?

[fire_eye]

"and perhaps a global war against Islam could be avoided."

Give war a chance, will you?

No thanks. None of those third-world bug-countries, or their third-world bug-religion, deserve anything so significant as a war.

We need to just isolate and neutralize them one at a time, so as to minimize our own cost in blood and treasure - preferably by setting them against each other.

Moreover, I don't want any of our troops over there exposed to radiation from their crude fission weapons which will produce excess neutron flux due to incompetent engineering, and fallout of excessive radionucleides due to detonation at insufficient altitude by primitive delivery systems.

(oh, and by the way - the Quackistanis aren't going to expend their limited nuclear "Option" on ground troops - they'll go straight for the civilian population centers, in the true Islamic tradition...)

[marshmallow]

India does not forbid Bibles on pain of death. Neither does Iraq, nor Syria, nor Egypt. Hinduism does contain a militant element however, that sees Christianity as a threat.

My post was written from the point of view of Christians residing in these countries and not from the point of view of a west threatened by militant Islam.

[section9]

No thanks. None of those third-world bug-countries, or their third-world bug-religion, deserve anything so significant as a war.

Awwwwwwww, ya just had to mention a bug-hunt now, did ya'?

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Diddle E. Squat]

I'm an Indian outlaw,
Half Cherokee and Choctaw,
My baby she's a Chippewa-ah,
She's a one-of-a-kind...