This isn't posturing - we're on the brink of a nuclear war

The Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | 05/31/2002 | Ahmed Rashid

[My Identity]

The parties are kicking a lot of dirt on each other right now. Trying to provoke the other, or prove their manhood for their constituents back home. The Indians are inclined to go, the Pakis are doing their best to dare them to cross the line.

The leftist paradigm allows the weaker Pakis to attack India without penalty, while India must show "restraint". India appears well past restraint at this stage. Add to that the muslim 'humiliation' issue, so that the Pakis feel obligated to respond to the Indian build-up. India attacks conventionally due to some provocation, Pakistan respond conventionally, but is soon overwhelmed in the air and at sea. Some Paki field commander, about to be overrun, resorts to nukes (Paki C&C is notoriously bad - Musharraf claims he has no control, doesn't know where the nukes are. If they're in the field as reported, even if under "loyal" commanders, their security is significantly at risk). India responds in kind, heavily. Total elapsed time: 3-5 minutes. The World's Shortest and Deadliest War.

If the Pakis simply backed away from the border and put away their toys, world pressure on India to do likewise would be impossible to ignore. However, that would be 'humiliating' to the Pakis ( It's a Muslim Thing, You Wouldn't Understand^© ), so it doesn't seem likely. The US could put its troops in harms way. That would stop the Indis, but not the Paki terrorists. If India pulls back, the Paki fundamentalists would see that as a sign of victory and redouble their efforts. A "Mexican Standoff" of sorts.

Jihadis in Kashmir are the wildcard, no matter how many conversations occur between Washington, New Delhi and Islamabad, If the terrorists cannot be contained by Pakistan (mid-management seems reluctant) or blocked by India (unlikely), further attacks in Indian-controlled Kashmir and elsewhere will occur. If sufficiently provocative, they could push New Delhi to act decisively.

[swarthyguy]

Let me explain the islamicjihadi mindset. They gave it before they had it. Howzat?

[swarthyguy]

The assassination of Ahmed Shah Massoud, head of the Northern Alliance, on Sept 9 2001 could be the equivalent of that Sarajevo assassination.

Recently, someone(pakistani, maybe) in England was arrested for providing fake credentials to the Northern Alliance for the jihadi 'TV" crew that had a bomb inside their camera.

[swarthyguy]

they could push New Delhi to act decisively.

That would be a first!
You're on the money with the withdrawal and humiliation angle.
Plus Musharraf would probably get overthrown in a putsch. The fight for Kashmir is literally the uniting factor for Pakistan.

[mindprism.com]

The war against terrorist savagry would be won by now, and the entire Islamic world would finally have understood there's no future in attacking the civilized world.

Rage respects no logic.

[Bob J]

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[mikeIII]

If "India has won the international community to its side and isolated Pakistan ", including, it seems, some Pakistanis, and Mushy's true colors are showing up, we should promptly put Pakistan on notice. It seems isolated in the entire Muslim world and even by the Muslims in India!

[timydnuc]

I firmly believe that Rummy is being sent there to explain our reaction to a nuclear strike. That would be as follows:

We immediatly go to the highest "DefCon". We seal off bases and arm our missles. We deploy the B-52s. We CAP Washington and the Pentagon is put on full "balloon has gone up" alert. All attack nuclear subs go to their target points with lauch codes. The President of the United States will be given the "football" armed and ready to broadcast launch codes, and he will have his finger on it. At that point all of our enemys will know this, if they want to take the chance, they'll have to decide then. If they decide to go with launch, we'll detect it and put mushrooms all over their front lawn, but we'll have enough in reserve to level anybody else who would take advantage of the situation. If it was China that launched against us, it is likely that we would have enough anti-missle, missles to bring down more than half of their 1st strike (they probably don't have a second strike scenerio due to a lack of warheads and vehicles. This is why I don't think that they would launch in the first place). This means we would suffer some "hits" on the west coast. Russia would stay out of this, because they could not benefit from the outcome. Any incoming warheads from anywhere would get a full retaliatory response, and then a second hit, just to make sure.

Rumsfeld is going to deliver this news to both of those hot heads. Let's just see how they deal with it.

Don't get me wrong, I deplore what could happen if this comes down. But, this just might settle the whole problem down. 25 to 30 million dead just might wake some Islamic Jihad a$$es up.

[Dog Gone]

Paki C&C is notoriously bad - Musharraf claims he has no control, doesn't know where the nukes are.

First of all, I don't believe that, but I'd be more shocked if he had said that. Where did you get that information?

[El Gato]

This could be like the opening of World War One

But, given modern communications and transporatation, much faster. With Nukes! However the presence of the nukes is more likely a stablizing influence, tending to make other nations think long and hard before becoming involved...all but most of the Islamist countries, for whom thinking, let alone long and hard, appears to be something of problem.

[DoughtyOne]

I think you're comments are fairly accurate.

[Dog Gone]

Okay, best I can tell, we don't know how the Chinese ended up with part of Kashmir, and nobody really cares anymore, anyway.

Must be really choice real estate!

[timydnuc]

Thank you. I of what I speak. It's a long story, and some of it is still "classified", but this is what is common knowledge.

[hinckley buzzard]

Someone in Hollywood had to come up with that name-- Jack Straw is perfect.

With Churchill we had John Bull-- the bulldog. With Tony Blair we have...the Scarecrow.

[Paleo Conservative]

The US needs to position any ABM technology it has to the area. Since India has said that they will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, any ABM technology should be depolyed to shoot down Pakistani missles.

[Dog Gone]

I don't think anybody can seriously suggest that the use of nukes would reduce both country's populations by 50-60%. There is a great tendency here at FR, as well as in most of the entire world, to believe that a nuke or two can wipe out vast populations.

It's not true. The size of the nukes these countries have are not large. Nukes are not nearly as destructive as I think some imagine.

[rintense]

I'm very concerned about this. It's playing right into the hands of the muslim extremists who may find an opportunity to get control of Pakistan (and nukes) should war break out.

Completely agree.

[Arleigh]

So that means we need to have fallout shelters available next week. Where are we supposed to get them?

Quit whining! Get out there and dig one yourself! It's easy. Even a couple of girls can do it.

Here's how

[Arleigh]

Imagine upwards of 15 million people gone in a matter of minutes.

Please, not to worry, Sahib. Half will be merrily boinking virgins in Paradise, and the other half will be reincarnated as lovely fireflies and glow-worms.

[rintense]

Shaggy, you once again have hit the nail on the head.