Posted on 12/03/2010 1:55:21 PM PST by bsaunders
Either the pressures placed on Israel will force them into a treaty that leaves Israel perilously vulnerable to renewed attacks or the Palestinian Authority declares itself an independent state backed by world wide consensus claiming the 1949 Armistice Lines as borders. The difference of eventual outcome between these two choices is minimal and breaks down to a difference only of timing. Timing for what, you ask? Timing for how long it would take for the Palestinians, most probably with assistance from numerous Muslim States, to initiate actions leading to another war with Israel. No matter the road taken, the end result is predestined to be war.
If Israel were to offer a return to virtually the same “borders” that were demarked by the cease-fire of 1949, with Jerusalem a divided city and the Temple Mount area under international protection to allow free access for people of all faiths, all the Israelis living within the newly formed Palestinian State relocated back within the Green Line, and minimal land swaps to minimize the number of peoples becoming dispossessed of their current homes, war would be not only inevitable, but very likely to break out within months. Within weeks of concluding such a deal and placing international forces to the holy sanctuaries of the Temple Mount, there would start riots each week after Friday prayers on the Temple Mount. These would build and would be followed with the Palestinian state demanding the foreign forces be removed from their land around the al-Asqa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock. As has happened every time outside forces were left to keep the peace in the Middle East around Israel, these peacekeepers would be removed almost before the request was fully stated. This would be followed by the banning of Jews to visit the Western Wall and the expulsion or slaughter of any Jews still living in the Old City of Jerusalem. Then would come the attacks on the suburban Jewish areas that were built beyond the Green Line. This would initiate a response from the Israelis either initially using IDF troops or quickly escalating to the point where the IDF would be necessitated. This would then spread to attacks by missiles initially and troops soon thereafter by Hamas, Hezballah, Syria, and Iran (and quite possibly Turkey).
On the other hand, the Palestinians declare themselves as an independent State defining their borders as the Green Line and demanding the Jews living in their declared lands be removed, what would follow? There is no way that Israel could remove the numbers of people requested in what the Palestinians would consider a timely manner, probably 48 hours or there about. Even if the leaders of the newly declared Palestinian State wished to be patient and work through the disengagement period, many groups among the population would not be as calm and patient. Probably within two to four days of the declaration, groups such as the al-Asqa Martyrs’ Brigade, Hamas, al-Qaida in Palestine, and PFLP would not show restraint. As soon as the Palestinian State had received recognition by the EU or the General Assembly of the UN, these groups would set upon the Jews remaining in the West Bank, even if they were preparing to leave, with a vengeance and malicious viciousness spreading unimaginable carnage and horror. This would be immediately responded to by Israel, unleashing the IDF with a great urgency of purpose. Again, war would be the end result as the surrounding Muslim countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and very likely Turkey and Egypt along with every terror group in the vicinity including Hamas, Hezballah and al-Qaida.
Continuing down the path the world is currently pursuing is going to force the Middle East into flames. Forcing the same proven failure of ideas can only lead to disaster as you can force people to a table but you cannot make them drink from the cup of peace. It does not matter which side is to blame. It only takes one side to start a war, and the kindling in the Middle East is parched and dry and the temperatures are rising as there is increased friction caused by forcing the two sides together against their will and better judgment. Should the world insist on forcing these two opposing forces together using however much energy as it takes, the only eventual result is there will be a flash, possibly almost going unnoticed to those from afar who are doing the pushing, but enough of a spark to trigger the flash-point of war. Those so invested in forcing a peace will instead force a war unless they back away and allow for a cooling period, though I fear it is already too late. I honestly believe that the initial spark has occurred undetected and the fuse has been lit, and that fuse is most likely very short.
Of course, this also allows Israel to attack the state/country under a declaration of war.
Game changer - Israel will welcome the opportunity to destroy the enemy openly and legally.
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