Posted on 02/10/2011 9:18:01 AM PST by sussex
Polls are to the modern political media as chickens were to the Romans who would slice one up, throw it’s entrails onto the floor then predict the future from the colour of the liver and the crinkles on the heart.
Fortunately for our contemporary punditocracy opinion polls are far less messy – but are they more reliable?
(Excerpt) Read more at theagedp.com ...
polls are a political tools , that’s all. polling companies are paid to come up with the results that they are being paid for. If you paid me , I could come up with a poll stating that 90% of the public supported you,of course if I was hired by your opponent I provide your opponent with a poll that states they had a 90% lead. It’s just a matter of playing with the numbers. To make it simple, if I wanted to show that 75% of the public supported my progressive candidate, I would call 3 hard core progressive voters and one conservative voter. Bingo... 75% in support of the progressive candidate! Polling companies maintain data bases so that they know who to call to control the polling nymbers.
Polling isn’t a science, it’s a dark art.
A well conducted poll is reliable for the point in time it was taken.
It is not so reliable in predicting the future. We live in a dynamic society. Both people change and change their minds ... and the circumstances that peoople see and experience change.
But most polls are not well conducted. Most do not choose a good population. Most do not choose the right questions nor phrase the questions properly. And, of course, most polls are purposely biased to favor some agenda or viewpoint. Sometimes these errors are unintentional. Sometimes they are intentional.
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