Middle East, Sweeping Change or Sweeping Insanity?

Beyond the Cusp ^ | February 16, 2011 | B. Saunders

[bsaunders]

Every time I try to write anything more about the calls for change and general unrest currently sweeping through the Muslim world, I hit a brick wall as my fears of where these revolts will lead is frightening. Unlike National Security Adviser James Clapper, a man who seems as clueless as is humanly possible, I understand the practice by Muslims of Taqiya to deceive and mislead non-Muslims of their true intentions. With this in mind, I have listened to what representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood and other dissident groups from Egypt have had to say in English and found much of that frightening enough to cause fear and alarm. I especially noted when the reputed leader of the secular reformers called for the renegotiation of the Camp David Accords demanding that Israel allow Egypt to mass troops in the Sinai Peninsula, which is forbidden by the current treaty. It is obvious that there exists but one reason for Egypt to mass troops in the Sinai Peninsula, and that is in preparation for a war with Israel. Somehow, all of these troublesome events and statements were not reflected in National Security Adviser James Clapper’s assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood as, “an umbrella term for a variety of movements, in the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried Al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam.” Mr. Clapper’s views could not be further from the truth or hold any less validity and distance from reality. It is as if our National Security Director is living in a parallel universe where everything is opposite to the reality where the rest of us reside.

So, what can we expect when the dust settles over the Muslim world? Starting where the demonstrations began, Tunisia has a high likelihood of forming some form of a democracy, most likely a parliamentary system. This is due to the facts that Tunisia has an educated population where over 80% of the people are literate. Another reason for such optimism for Tunisia’s future is the fact that there exists a sizeable class of entrepreneurs who are the driving force behind the calls for reform and freedom. We can only hope that Tunisia becomes wildly successful after they implement changes in their governance and as such act as a beacon showing that success relies on guarantees of individual freedoms, property rights, regular and free elections, and the rule of law.

Jordan also appears that it will survive the waves of change as King Abdullah II has ruled with benevolence. King Abdullah has responded in a positive manner to the demands of the demonstrators by dismissing Prime Minister Samir Rifai and replacing him with Marouf al-Bakhit, who has served and is widely viewed as clean of corruption. With the appointment of Marouf al-Bakhit, the King has assured the Jordanians that changes and transparency of government are the aims of the King and his new Prime Minister. The other major subject of contention regards what many have viewed as unfair land dealings by Queen Rania. There has been a call for the Queen and her family to return the misappropriated lands ending this corruption. All indicators are that King Abdullah II is in little danger of losing his throne and Jordan will probably face some changes and reforms without the violence and all-encompassing turmoil that is facing other Muslim countries.

Iran and Libya can be discussed as two sides of the same coin despite their many fundamental differences. In both cases, they are attributing any disruptions and demonstrations as being the result of meddling by the West and Israel. Both countries have taken the stance that dissent will not be tolerated. We can expect that both Iran and Libya will use whatever level of force that is required to suppress any dissent. The main difference will be that while Libya will very likely avoid much attention from the Western media while Iran will be a focal point of the same media. Unfortunately for the demonstrators, neither country’s leadership will care about the complaints of their violence against their people as both believe that the ends justify the means when it comes to retaining their grip on power.

Yemen may prove to be the ultimate basket case. With separatists revolting in the north and al-Qaeda forming and taking control in the south of the country, Yemen could very likely become another failed state much like Somalia. Yemen may only have one hope that Saudi Arabia intercede in order to prevent a lawless country forming on their southern borders. Unfortunately, these problems are not new and have been threatening Yemen for years. This new wave that has swept the Middle East has simply added fuel to the fires that were already burning in Yemen. Odds are that after all is said and done, Yemen will not end well.

And then there is the 800 lbs. Gorilla in the room, Egypt. Reports that Hosni Mubarak has relinquished his control over the governing of Egypt may not be entirely accurate. When Hosni Mubarak was President of Egypt, he basically ruled as the head of the Egyptian military. Now, Egypt is being ruled by Higher Military Council which is another way of stating that the heads of the military rule Egypt. Surprisingly enough, for the time being there has been little if any change in the rules as far as the man on the street is concerned. The retired military generals still own the most profitable and lucrative industries in Egypt. Law and order are now being kept by the military, replacing the police who used torture, mass arrests, threats of violence, and general thuggery to intimidate and silence dissent. The military has a clean slate and is more respected by the Egyptian people, but time will tell if this changes as military rule continues and the anticipated elections do not materialize. Even if elections are held as scheduled in September, the truth of change will be revealed by the candidates allowed on the ballot. It is quite likely that the military will restrict those allowed to make the ballot to those who will support much of the status-quo keeping much of the power within the military as has been the case from the rule of Gamal Abdel Nasser through to Hosni Mubarak to the assuming of power as an interim government by the Higher Military Council. The main strain and contention for control will be between the Military attempting to keep much of their control and the Muslim Brotherhood who wish to wrench as much control and power away from the military as possible. My view of the near future for Egypt reminds me of a song by the Who from the Rock Opera Tommy, titled “Won’t Get Fooled Again” with the lyrics, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

Beyond the Cusp

[Cheetahcat]

Same as the riots here ,Something for nothing.