Posted on 09/17/2011 2:28:31 PM PDT by techno
Imagine you are Sarah Palin sitting in her living room today. You know that Mitt Romney needs "a parting of the Red Sea miracle" to win the GOP nomination, you already have known for several months that all the second-tier candidates, including Michele Bachmann, are toast, so you are faced with only 3 scenarios that you need concern yourself about as you move forward and that could derail your bid for the GOP nomination:
a)Rick Perry
b)The 11th hour entry into the race of Jeb Bush
c) Barack Obama may not run for re-election
Of course she knows all the filing deadlines for each state and fully understands the bureaucratic morass and jungle she and her team will need to navigate to become an official presidential candidate.
She fully comprehends the anti-Palin forces on both the Left and the Right will do everything in their power to stop her from announcing a presidential bid and after she enters the race to resort to sabotage to stop her from winning the nomination.
She understands she will in all likelihood be outraised by Team Perry. But that has been the hallmark of all her campaigns.
And there is now a rumor afloat via firelight at conservatives4palin.com that the GOP leadership is prepared to ambush Sarah Palin once she enters the race by moving up the early primaries/caucuses significantly with a Iowa caucus date sometime in Dec 2011, to prevent Palin from having enough time to win enough hearts and minds in the early primary states and to set up an organization after she enters the race.
And she realizes that she is now in the ascendancy in the polls while both Perry and Romney are now both on the decline despite not being a candidate yet.
And finally she is fully cognizant of President Obama's falling poll numbers and speculation he may not run for a second term.
Now your folks are all intelligent adults--given all this information and data and taking into mind the various political considerations, what would you do or at least consider doing?
Here is what I would do if I were Sarah Palin (I am not privy to any inside info):
a) Wait another week or two to see if there are more stirrings or rumors out of the Jeb Bush camp or GOP establishment. She knows the GOP establishment will NOT go quietly into the night and in acquiescent fashion accept defeat due to Romney's poll numbers now tanking. If it has a plan, it must act quickly and decisively. One thing that hardly anybody brings up is that the window may be closing for Palin to get into the race but by the same token it is also closing on any other new potential entrant as well. Jeb has to act quickly; she knows that. And that is as good a reason to delay her entry into the race as any.
b)Palin knows Perry has damaged himself in his first to debates (see CBS/NYT poll released yesterday)and eventually his overall support would begin to fall off. She is politically savvy and understands the nature of vetting and what can result from it. Like everyone she has an opinion on far Perry's poll numbers will sink or whether he will bottom out and start to rebound but she is certain the longer she stays out of the race the more Perry will be exposed, especially to Tea party supporters, who she needs to move over to her tent en masse to win the nomination.
"When your opponent is falling, don't get in the way."
And for the time being Sarah Palin won't.
c)The McGinniss/Levi Johnston books are more of a nuisance than anything but why subject yourself to the political spotlight when you know all the reporters want to ask you is whether you slept with Glenn Rice. Let it pass (books released next week) and besides neither Romney nor Perry appear that they are going to become any more viable in a period of a week or 10 days.
d)And by waiting as late as possible to enter the race you prevent the GOP leadership from changing the primary docket in such a dramatic way because of the bureaucratic procedures involved in moving up so many races. And if the GOP leadership does it before she enters the race, the grassroots will be complaining and screaming about interrupting Christmas and having the unmitigated gall to changing the rules in midstream and as a consequence donations could dry up and the GOP leadership could take a major hit to its credibility. And Palin knows this: The GOP leadership will not make its move until she enters the race.
e) And Palin like everyone else is probably wondering if Obama would pull a Truman (1952) or a LBJ (1968) and not seek re-election.
She is also fully aware that no prominent Democrat would challenge and then deny "the first Black President" a second term in office without alienating the massive Black vote for the Democrats.
I think Palin is pretty confident that the egomaniac, Narcissist, Soros puppet will be running but I think she doesn't want to be blindsided by Obama not running because of health reasons.
f) And finally most people focus on the narrow window for Palin to compete in the GOP primaries if she enters late, but what the focus should be on is that it gives her enemies in the media and the permanent political class less opportunity to beat her up as well before the first vote is taken in Iowa.
And lest you forget, Sarah Palin has The Undefeated as her ace in the hole. If they attack her on her record as governor of Alaska she will say, "Watch The Undefeated." And the longer she waits, the more people will have seen the movie, both in theaters and in private homes.
In conclusion, Sarah Palin does NOT need to enter the presidential race now unless she feels she indeed made a promise to get in by the end of September. For those who fear PROSELYTIZATION, as I once did, she is now in the ascendancy in the polls.
And as to her strategy, has Sarah Palin decided not to focus on making herself MORE ACCEPTABLE to the GOP primary voters, but instead focused on making both Perry and Romney LESS ACCEPTABLE to them, thereby narrowing the gap by bringing them down to her level (increasing their negatives) rather than striving to climb up to their level of acceptance (according to the pollsters). If that is indeed her strategy, it appears to be working so far.
As for your pushing the lie that ACES was a "windfall profits tax" -- I am 100 correct and truthful on that. I'm looking at a post of yours from March 27 right now on another window. Don't know how to link posts, so won't bother. People who know me know what to expect from me: truth, and when I'm proven mistaken or wrong with regard to facts I post, I'm quick to say "I stand corrected." Just like I did above.
The "lies" and "nonsense" are frequently on your side, and because I've seen you do it and remember, I know EXACTLY what to expect from you. My goal here is to make sure that others know as well that you have posted that outright falsehood here on FR.
Anyhoo, just so's ya know, when I respond to these folks, it's because I firmly believe that leaving a lie to sit unchallenged, or a destructive and calculated strategy to go unidentified, is as harmful as the lie or strategy itself. For you and me, it's the umpteenth time we've seen these lies and strategies, and so reasonably feel that they're not even worth bothering with anymore. But I remember that there's a good chance that for many some-time lurkers from all sides, it may be the FIRST time they've seen them, and when they see them either go unchallenged or weakly rebuked, those new and/or sometime readers might think the reason there's been no response is because there isn't one. But we know there IS, and that the scenario has been repeated many times here. The arguments don't change -- the readers do. And I write for readers.
So, far from feeding the trolls, I'm trying to erase their graffitti with fresh paint. It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it! ;^)
Wow, mead, great catch! Thanks for the link.
Just been texting back and forth with a buddy in Georgia about it...this may be the end of Reno..they have already had problems getting insurance...I use to go every year and this was such a fluke occurrence. The only time the airplanes are pointed at the crowd is that last pylon turn. Of all the places to have something let go...a bad deal any way you look at it and a sad sad day for aviation.
:applause:
It starts with a 10% base tax plus 25% of profits and escalates dramatically as the profits rise (windfall profits). The President of Conoco Alaska stated that the tax bite is up to 75% of 'revenues'....not profits, "revenues".
This is over and above an existing royalties scheme.
A gaggle of freeper-palinites denying that it is what it is doesn't change the facts.
Thanks for those poll results. Looks like Perry is in decline and Romney is rising. I guess I’ll be voting for Romney. Remember - the main thing is to get Obama out of the White House. /s
There is nothing that will stop her from continuing to make huge amounts of cash, even if she runs and loses. McCain lost in 2008 with Sarah Palin as his VP candidate, and that never stopped her from raking in plenty of cash did it?
You gotta come up with something better than this, mate.
Ummm..why would someone who has nor declared, want to take par in a televised debate of declared candidates?
“that, my rude friend, is not how a focused, dedicated candidate would prioritize his time and energy”
That is exactly how an undeclared potential candidate (accused of lacking in foreign policy) would spend his/her time, buttressing up his/her foreign policy credentials.
Talking about rudeness, have you read the vile posts of you and your rabid anti-Palin bots on this and other Sarah Palin threads? Didn't know you clowns even knew the meaning of the word “rude”.
“And, speaking in Korea for a fee does not mean that you suddenly have foreign policy experience in korean matters”
That would depend on hat the speech is about and the substance of the speech wouldn't it? Meanwhile, speaking in one of America's major allies on substantive matters of the day DOES butress her foreign policy credentials, if the speech is profound, and has substance and gravitas. I seem to recall 0bozo giving speeches in Berlin and what not, whereupon the lamestream media promptly declared how “cerebral, historic and profound” his foreign policy credentials were. Apparently the American voting public bought it too. Who is sitting in the White House today?
“It means that you got on a plane for six or eight hours, got off, went to a hotel, gave a speech the next day, picked up a check and got back on the plane and came ho”
Same as Winston Churchill did when he gave his historic “Iron Curtain” speech in Westminster College, in Fulton, Missouri (1946).
What more garbage you got to spew out, mate?
In most of these places, comments of informed posters are more illuminating than the actual articles. For example, this one by Ed Morrissey shook people up, yours truly included, quite badly. I was heartbroken and ready to soldier forward with warnings to fellow conservatives that Palin wasn't up to snuff, alas, another disappointment ... until I read PAST the 53rd post of heartbroken folks like me, and a truly robust and informed discussion began. Talk about an about-face in responses! Remember that wtc911 REALLY hopes you won't read all the comments.
Then there's this (oooops! wtc911 really hopes you wont read that one!) and this would-be Palin hit piece that ended up getting turned on its ear by informed discussion, along with this thoughtful analysis. And finally, you can see what Palin said earlier this year about wtc's so-called "windfall profits tax."
The tax, or usage fee, isn't on profits and its only connection to windfalls is that it is indexed to the going price of oil -- the higher the going price of oil, the higher the percentage of tax.
wtc911 is telling an outright falsehood. He deviously equates revenues with profits, yet they are DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT THINGS, as I'm sure he knows. An ineffecient company is going to make a smaller profit than an efficient company on the same-priced item. Clearly, ACES is 100 percent indifferent to profits. But the propaganda term "windfall profits tax" is very frightening to those who remain ignorant of the truth, and wtc911 knows that, too.
This is what people who don't want you to support Palin have to resort to. Their allies are Mother Jones and Huffintgon Post. They can't argue with truth, so they have to deceive with lies. Why? Because they're on the wrong side.
not sure I agree with that... At all.
{^) Good one, Joe! The sad thing is that guys like wtc911 and other Palin detractors who resort to name-calling and pesonal insults instead of arguing substance) really hurt the decent folks who are sincere in their doubts about Palin, and who are sincere in their confidence in candidates like Perry, Cain, and Bachmann. Guys like wtc911 are trying to lay the groundwork for strife, hard feelings, and ugliness among conservatives NO MATTER WHO GETS THE NOMINATION. Personally, I think their goal is something other than simply trying to convince people not to support Palin.
Exactly, from what I have heard from other Sarah supporters, she was clearly going to announce today—Constitution Day. Saturday, September 17.I've seen that prediction posted many times in the past couple of weeks.
So what's the new due date?
I agree with your post #47.
I thought Palin was supposed to announce today.I don't know where the rumor came from but I do know that it was repeated passionately, right here on FR, from many Palin supporters. I read it often in the last couple of weeks.And your thinking was based on pure rumor. See where it got you!
I am of the opinion that the rumors probably START with Palin's enemies, and are picked up by naive and hopeful supporters, but that's just my opinion. YMMV.
“Obama isn’t the problem, the DC culture of corruption is the problem. That environment allowed for an Obama to be put in power. “
Only Gov Palin is tackling the problem at its root. She is presidential.
Ping
Outstanding work, Finny. Great links too. A “must bookmark.” Thanks!
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