Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
Reagan beat Carter like a drum in 1980 because people don't like to suffer their own economic misery.
Wallet first. Party second.
Shall I post for you the Cain flubs?
Here's one.
"Herman Cain Flubs Mideast Policy on Fox"
There's more...
Darn, just shoot all of them—there’s not a good one in the bunch. If we forfeit now we can save all kinds of money.
AS much as I admire and respect Herman Cain, I honestly don’t believe he can beat Obama
At this point I think my dog could beat Obama. Could Cain beat Hillary? Could Palin?
I thought it was Tom Delay who wanted to be an ally
i am sure Sarah thinks it needs to be fixed no Dem will tell you that but Sarah will tell you it has to be fixed. I will fix and If I do not you have the ballot box to get rid of me.
Like it or not, Palin is kingmaker.
If she announces she is not running, Mitt Romney is king. :(
And we need Rubio for veep. That'll kill the Dems for sure--will attract a lot of hispanics and you have to admit he's darn near perfect in every way.
Why not make Cain secretary of Everything? We have too many cabinets, let the Godfather gather all of them under a few secretaries, with Cain at the top.
Sarah spent 3 years working and learning about all what she did not know well when she was running for VP - she did her home work.
It may well be true that she did her homework, but who's to say that Cain hasn't done his homework equally well? What you're speaking about it studying / learning, and I rather doubt you have any hard evidence to show that she's done a better job than Cain in that area.
PLUS her executive experience as governor of a state...[snip...Do you sincerely think that Cain knows ANYTHING about all that?
It's certainly true that Palin ran a state and Cain did not. However, consider that in this election the economy is the key issue...and Cain's executive experience appears more "on point" in this area than Palin's. I will grant you that she can point to the fact that she knows how to pull the right levers to make government work, though. She can probably also persuasively argue she's a superior candidate with regard to foreign affairs.
2 degrees - one of them in math, much business success in which he worked his way to the top in the corporate world - can’t sneeze at that.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been a rabid Sarah fan but other than 2 excellent years as governor I don’t think her history matches Cain’s.
My favorite thing about Sarah is how she has thrown out corruption whether it was on the right or left and how she has stood up to these repulsive merciless attacks on her and her family.
We have no idea about that. Know why? Because she isn't running and taking random gotcha questions from the media. She makes appearences on the FOX News channel where they are friendly to her. Let's see what happens when she has to hit the Sunday morning shows.
I really don't care about Gov't experience. Palin only had 3 years of statewide experience anyway. This election will be about one thing and one thing only. Jobs. Cain created them, Palin didn't. Simple as that.
Objection, calls for speculation...
How did I do counselor?
Texas' tuition rate requirements are not even remotely close to being on the radar of issues people have right now. If Rick Santorum has an issue with what Texas does, he can leave his perch in DC, move to Texas and try and make a difference. In the meantime, Texas will continue to do what Texas does: remain the best place to do business in the United States.
There’s nothing wrong with being pro a particular candidate. Palin’s supporters simply believe she’s waiting for the right time to enter. There are people that are only Perry supporters, Cain supporters, Bachmann supporters, Paul supporters, etc. It’s part of the process. At least some of us will eventually have to choose a new candidate. That’s what primaries are for.
Cindie
Sarah Palin’s agenda and mine are like two rails of the same track. Very much congruous and parallel. However she needs to get in pronto, start developing a nationwide organization, establish structure in every state, and start major fund raising.
But if she decides not to get in, I do have an extremely viable candidate in Herman Cain. He will receive my campaign contributions.
Any one’s guess what percentage of black vote he gets if the nominee? He has to hurt 0Bama on his 94% constituency.
Here's a couple of ideas, Granny.
Why don't you address your post to the poster who started the shooting??
Better yet, since you've been constantly shooting at Palin, why don't you try to live by your own standards?
It isn’t about how long one has served, but, how well. Her record is nearly impeccable in that area.
Consider how popular Clarence Thomas is among black voters and you'll have your answer. ;-)
I'm guessing Obama will get 90%+ no matter who the GOP nominee is.
“If Palin, rather than Cain, had won”
Palin wasn’t on the ballot, genius.
What’s your hurry? For her to enter now, gives the MSM more time to beat up on her. Right now, they are focusing on the others. Sounds like a good strategy to me.
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